683
FXUS65 KGJT 162059
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
259 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind
  gusts of 30-50 mph, frequent lightning and small hail.

- Increased moisture in the next few days increases the chances
  for measurable rainfall. Shower coverage should increase as a
  result of the moisture as well.

- Conditions dry out Sunday into early next week bringing a
  return of near critical fire weather conditions.

- Smoke will continue to be a problem until the large wildfires
  in the area receive some rain or higher relative humidity
  slows growth.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

There is a shortwave trough currently tracking over the Northern
Rockies and Northern Plains. The upper-level jet from that system
extends over our area and is perhaps providing weak lift for
convection. Storms have already formed on the higher terrain and
expect those showers propagate over the valleys later this
afternoon and evening. The primary threat with these showers
will be gusty outflow winds of 30-55 mph. Small hail and brief
downpours are possible especially in the higher terrain. The
showers should dissipate for the most part around sunset,
although a few could linger in the Four Corners area overnight.
As that shortwave moves off to the east high pressure expands
back over the region allowing for a slight uptick in the
moisture across the south. Expect another round of afternoon
convection with similar impacts as today. Temperatures will
closer to normal for mid July. With the lower atmosphere getting
more saturated, the strong outflow winds will be less of a
threat, but we can still expect to see gusts to 40 mph. Dry
lightning will still be a threat, especially across northern
portions of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure to our southeast will allow for moisture to advect into
our region with southwesterly flow. The main push of moisture moves
in Thursday evening and will linger through Saturday. On Friday the
greatest atmospheric moisture will be primarily north of I-70, but
PWATs will be above normal across the CWA. Ensemble guidance
suggests maximum PWAT anomalies around 150% of normal. On Friday
precipitation is expected be widespread, but the highest PoPs are
over the high terrain. This precipitation could raise some concerns
for rock slides and debris flow, particularly in the high terrain or
near the newly burned land from our wildfires. On Saturday moisture
begins to decrease, but enough lingers to bring another day of
widespread precipitation chances. Atmospheric moisture continues to
decrease on Sunday, making precipitation chances more constrained to
the higher terrain. The remainder of the long term looks similar, as
each day will have a chance of afternoon convection, primarily along
the Divide and in the southern mountains.

Critical fire weather conditions from low relative humidity and
gusty winds will be localized over the first few days of the long
term. Moisture advection keeps relative humidity values above
thresholds for most of the CWA on Friday and Saturday. Many of our
valleys are expected to drop below 15% relative humidity by the end
of the weekend, and this will persist through the long term.
Increasing wind speeds may raise critical fire weather concerns in
the northern half of our CWA early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the
TAF period. Visibility may lower at some sites due to wildfire
smoke. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to begin shortly and last through sunset. Some storms
may linger overnight, mostly near the San Juans and in the Four
Corners region. The primary concerns with thunderstorms will be
gusty outflow winds and lightning. Winds should become light
overnight.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT