214
FXUS65 KGJT 291150
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
550 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this morning and through
  the afternoon, tapering off this evening.

- Localized flash flooding possible today, especially for burn
  scars and flood prone locales with saturated soils from recent
  rains.

- Temperatures trend nearly 10 degrees below normal today.

- Warmer and drier conditions develop this weekend with some
  terrain based showers in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Extra-tropical moisture is pushing across Baja into the Four Corners
this morning, blanketing much of the Great Basin in cloud cover and
scattered precipitation. No convection has been observed to this
point. Light stratiform rain seems to be the extent. A dry slot
working into the Four Corners could limit production for our
southern counties. Forcing closer to the jet looks to keep some of
the best rainfall north of the Colorado River this morning, with
light rainfall tapering southward. As discussed here, instability
could hinge on the cloud cover and rain cooled boundary layers. Hi
res models taking instability into account, bring thunderstorms in
after lunch, north of a Lake Powell/Vail Pass axis. Some isolated
convection on the San Juans is reasonable too. With PWAT`s running
high still, a few showers could produce localized flash flooding on
recently saturated soils. Abundant cloud cover and some cooler,
drier air settling in from the north side of the ridge will keep
afternoon highs well below August climatology, on the order of 10
degrees below normal for most locales.

Tonight, that cooler, drier air will quickly suppress showers and
help kick-start a drying trend for the next few days. Clearing skies
early Saturday morning will likely introduce some localized fog to
cold, wet valleys. Abundant sunshine will bring temperatures back up
near normal Saturday afternoon. Remnant moisture will produce a few
showers on the terrain Saturday afternoon. These will be quick up
and down affairs, with some gusty outflow winds and brief downpours.
Flooding is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

On Saturday a shortwave trough will pass north of the area allowing
dry air to filter into the region. The only moisture will be along
the Divide mountains, which is where showers are possible. On
Saturday there may be some moisture lingering in the San Juans so
isolated showers are possible there. Elsewhere will be dry with
temperatures gradually rising. The only change to the pattern early
next week is a deepening low pressure over the eastern US keeping us
in weak northerly flow, so not much advection. Moisture once again
may linger around the San Juans, which will keep daily afternoon
storm chances going. Additional moisture perhaps filters in mid to
late week. This is when we may see an uptick in convection in the
higher terrain. Temperatures next week end up a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A deck of mid level cloud cover is streaming through the region
with a few rain showers in tow. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop this morning and into the afternoon.
Winds are expected to pick up with shower and storm activity.
Ceilings are expected to degrade into breakpoint territory for
most terminals as this activity passes through. MVFR to VFR
conditions will return this evening and most terminals should
return VFR by the end of this period. Storms could produce some
small hail today too.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT