711
FXUS65 KGJT 291139
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
439 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories will drop off this morning, with
  light flurries continuing against the Divide into mid-day

- Unsettled conditions return Sunday with measurable snow on
  all of our mountain passes and the potential for another round
  of winter highlights for the high country.

- Temperatures will trend downward today and beyond as cold air
  remains pooled across the region and regular cloud cover chews
  into available sunlight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Synoptically speaking, not much has changed in the big picture
across the West. Broad cyclonic flow dips from the PACNW down to the
Four Corners. Much drier air resides south of the longwave trough
across AZ/NM. Meanwhile, orographics are taking advantage of the
meager moisture in the longwave trough to produce snow showers
across our northern mountains and farther south on the higher
elevations along the west side of the Continental Divide this
morning. SNOTEL sites in COZ004 are picking up 3-6 inches thus
far, while southward in COZ010 amounts hover around 2 inches of
new snow, mostly above 10000 feet. Dynamically, there just isn`t
much going on to ramp up rates and thus we are likely to
continue accumulating steadily until the jet streak slides east
this morning. Winter Weather Advisories are expected to drop off
around 0800 MST this morning, with light flurries continuing
into mid-day along the terrain west of the Divide. Accumulations
will be negligible though.

Sunny skies will keep things pretty mild on the south side of I-70
today, with temperatures only dipping a couple degrees from
yesterday. Up north however, temperatures will feel much cooler
under the influence of the colder air mass, with highs 10-15
degrees cooler. Clouds will increase this afternoon across the
region, as another northerly jet streak digs the trough
southward into the Great Basin. This is expected to pick up a
fetch of Pacific moisture that will later come in handy for
additional snowfall on the southern mountains. Cloud cover
tonight should keep some of our cold spots from plummeting
behind the cold front. It does look like the Yampa and Gunnison
Basins should dip into the mid/low teens tonight.

The deepening open wave drops another frontal boundary into the CWA
Sunday afternoon. This will produce additional measurable snowfall
from the northern mountains down into the San Juans by Sunday
evening, as strong southwest flow converges with the frontal
boundary over the southern mountains. Wintry driving conditions are
expected across our mountain passes on Sunday afternoon and into
Monday morning. Holiday travelers and Monday commuters should stay
abreast of local forecasts through this period. Temperatures will
trend cooler, yet again, beneath gray skies Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

As the trough and front continue to push through Sunday and
Monday morning, precipitation will overspread to just about the
entire CWA. A few differences with regards to timing still exist
but models continue to get into better agreement increasing
confidence in the forecast. The latest forecast has all the
higher terrain in Colorado receiving between 4 to 8 inches. The
Park Range and highest peaks of the West Elks and Elk Mountains
look to be the winners with amounts possibly reaching 11
inches. Snow amounts have adjusted upward with this morning`s
forecast package, but model spread remains a point of
contention for snow production. Either way, keep an eye on the
forecast Sunday if travelling or recreating in the High
Country.

By noon Monday, precip will be over though a few isolated
showers will be possible along the Continental Divide. Have no
fear snow lovers, as another trough is expected to move in as
early as Tuesday night. As of now, large model discrepancies
exist so suffice to say that another chance for mountain snow
looks probable, mainly for northern mountains, Flat Tops, and
portions of the central mountains.

High temperatures trend even cooler next week as reinforcing
shots of cold air move in with those upper level troughs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 434 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

A passing frontal boundary will keep (near)breakpoint ceilings
in KHDN, KEGE, and KASE for a few hours this morning, but
conditions should improve back to VFR around 1600Z. Elsewhere,
scattered to broken high clouds will stick around today, with
high ceilings developing across the region late this afternoon.
Winds remain light and terrain driven today.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ004-
     010.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT