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FNUS75 KGJT 130036
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Upper Vallecito FLooding...La Plata County Office of Emergency Management
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
636 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on October 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Another batch of tropical based moisture is again
pointed at the 4 Corners region. The central and eastern San Juan
mountains and adjacent valleys will again be favored to receive
significant precipitation with this event. The most probable
forecast (50%) is for another 2 to 3" with locally higher amounts
across the Vallecito Basin and nearby terrain from Monday morning
through Tuesday afternoon. Higher probability forecasts for higher
rainfall amounts can not be discounted due to the addition of a
thunderstorm threat. With snow levels remaining above 11000 feet
for most of the event...most of what falls will run-off.

.COLUMBUS DAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy with rain and embedded thunderstorms
                    through the day. Moderate to heavy rainfall
                    rates of over an inch per hour is possible.
Max temperature.....49-54.
Min humidity........74-79 percent.
Surface winds.......Upslope/upvalley winds 3 to 5 mph through
                    1200 then South increasing to 7 to 12 mph.
                    Gusty winds possible near thunderstorms.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy with rain and embedded thunderstorms
                    through the night. Moderate to heavy rainfall
                    rates up to an inch per hour possible.
Min temperature.....44-49.
Max humidity........85-90 percent.
Surface winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph except gusty near
                    thunderstorms.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....54-59.
Min humidity........59-64 percent.
Surface winds.......South to Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic near thunderstorms.

$$
Forecaster...Dennis Phillips
Requested by...Scott Nielsen on behalf of LPC OEM
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2523437.1/GJT
.DELDT 10/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lpcoem@gmail.com,scott.nielsen@durangofire.org