642
FNUS75 KGJT 171006
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Sowbelly...BLM-CO-SWD
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
406 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...An increase of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon through Saturday bring better chances for measurable
precip, but only a slight up-tick in chances for wetting rain.
Primary threats continue to be lightning and outflow gusts 30 to
50 mph. The increase of moisture across the region may lead to
localized moderate to heavy rainfall from thunderstorms Friday
and Saturday possibly impacting the fire scar.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of smoke
                    through the day. Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....79-84.
Min humidity........19-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL increasing to 9800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...45 percent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Areas of smoke
                    through the night. Scattered thunderstorms in
                    the evening. Scattered showers through the
                    night.
CWR.................15 percent.
Min temperature.....57-62.
Max humidity........53-58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 mph shifting to the southwest
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000-22000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    in the morning, then scattered dry
                    thunderstorms and showers in the afternoon.
                    Areas of smoke in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....79-84.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to good in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL increasing to 8100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster...David Byers
Requested by...James Savage
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517847.6/GJT
.DELDT 07/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL JSavage@blm.gov