693
FNUS75 KGJT 152344
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Parvin Gulch...Montrose Interagency Dispatch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
544 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on June 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure in control will keep skies clear and
temperatures on the warmer side. Increasingly strong southwest winds
kick in beginning tonight, which, along with very low forecasted
humidity, will lead to critical fire weather conditions during the
day Sunday and Monday. Peak winds are expected Monday afternoon, with
southwest gusts of 40-50 mph likely near the fire location. A dry cold
front comes through Monday night, bringing slightly cooler temperatures,
but little precipitation or relief from the winds.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....53-58.
Max humidity........26-31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8-12 mph becoming south winds by
2100. Gusts up to 20 mph possible before 2400.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent decreasing to poor (2000-5000 knot-ft)
                    by 2000.
Haines Index........6 or high.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL by 2100.
Transport winds.....South 16 mph.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....82-87.
Min humidity........7-12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8-12 mph becoming southwest by 0900.
Increasing to 14-18 mph by 1200. Gusts 30-35 mph
expected in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000-9000 knot-ft) increasing to fair by
0900, to very good by 1000, and to excellent by
1100.
Haines Index........6 or high.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 11800 ft AGL by 1600.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 mph.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....54-59.
Max humidity........19-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14-18 mph becoming south winds
10-14 mph by 2100. Gusts 25-20 mph until 2100,
then gusts to 20 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent decreasing to poor (3000-6000 knot-ft)
                    by 2000.
Haines Index........6 or high.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......11100 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL by 2000.
Transport winds.....Southwest 28 mph becoming south 16 mph
                    overnight.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy blowing dust
possible after 1500.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....78-83.
Min humidity........9-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8-12 mph becoming southwest by 0900.
Increasing to 14-18 mph by 1200, and to 18-22 mph
by 1400. Gusts to 20 mph possible until 0900, then
gusts 25-35 mph until 1400, then gust 40-45 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000-25000 knot-ft) increasing to fair by
0800, to very good by 0900, and to excellent by
1000.
Haines Index........6 or high.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 11800 ft AGL by 1500.
Transport winds.....Southwest 31 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Brianna Bealo
Requested by...Montrose Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416190.0/GJT
.DELDT 06/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL comtc@firenet.gov