Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
768
UXUS97 KGJT 151306
SRGGJT
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
706 AM MDT Tuesday, July 15, 2025
This forecast is for Tuesday, July 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 80.6 F/27.0 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1677 ft/min (8.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 23700 ft MSL (18092 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 100.0 F/38.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0845 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 20533 ft MSL (14925 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 07/16.... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:01:02 / 20:39:22 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 38 min 19 sec (878 min 19 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:20:12 MDT... 71.75 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 07/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 16107 ft MSL (10499 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17027 ft MSL (11419 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19485 ft MSL (13877 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -5.4
K index......................... +24.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.1 -81.6 260 25 13 1.2 0.6 M M M M M
45000 -59.5 -75.1 255 33 17 5.2 2.8 M M M M M
40000 -51.8 -61.2 255 42 22 5.3 2.9 M M M M M
38000 -48.2 -54.8 245 42 22 5.3 2.9 M M M M M
36000 -45.0 -49.0 240 42 22 5.4 3.0 M M M M M
34000 -40.5 -40.9 240 39 20 7.7 4.2 M M M M M
32000 -35.9 -32.6 240 35 18 7.5 4.1 M M M M M
30000 -31.1 -24.0 240 32 17 7.9 4.3 43.7 110.6 4.4 M M
29000 -28.8 -19.8 245 31 16 7.9 4.3 43.0 109.4 3.9 M M
28000 -26.4 -15.5 245 30 15 7.4 4.1 42.4 108.3 3.5 M M
27000 -24.3 -11.7 250 30 15 7.1 3.9 41.3 106.3 2.7 M M
26000 -22.2 -8.0 255 30 15 7.1 3.9 40.3 104.5 1.9 M M
25000 -20.0 -4.0 255 30 15 7.1 3.9 39.4 103.0 1.2 M M
24000 -17.9 -0.2 260 29 15 7.0 3.8 38.4 101.0 0.3 M M
23000 -15.9 3.4 260 29 15 7.0 3.8 37.3 99.2 -0.5 1620 8.2
22000 -13.8 7.2 260 29 15 7.0 3.8 36.4 97.6 -1.3 1529 7.8
21000 -11.3 11.7 260 26 13 6.6 3.6 35.0 95.0 -2.6 1419 7.2
20000 -9.4 15.1 265 23 12 6.7 3.7 33.9 93.1 -3.6 1331 6.8
19500 -8.5 16.7 265 22 11 7.1 3.9 33.4 92.2 -4.1 1288 6.5
19000 -7.3 18.9 270 22 11 8.6 4.7 33.2 91.7 -4.4 1238 6.3
18500 -6.0 21.2 270 22 11 8.5 4.7 32.9 91.3 -4.7 1186 6.0
18000 -4.8 23.4 275 22 11 9.0 4.9 32.8 91.0 -4.9 1133 5.8
17500 -3.5 25.7 275 23 12 9.1 5.0 32.6 90.8 -5.1 1079 5.5
17000 -2.1 28.2 275 24 12 9.0 4.9 32.5 90.6 -5.2 1024 5.2
16500 -0.9 30.4 275 24 12 8.5 4.7 32.3 90.2 -5.5 971 4.9
16000 0.4 32.7 275 24 12 8.6 4.7 32.1 89.9 -5.7 919 4.7
15500 1.6 34.9 275 24 13 8.2 4.5 31.9 89.5 -6.0 867 4.4
15000 2.8 37.0 275 24 12 8.2 4.5 31.7 89.0 -6.3 817 4.1
14500 4.0 39.2 275 24 12 8.2 4.5 31.4 88.6 -6.6 766 3.9
14000 5.2 41.4 270 23 12 8.2 4.5 31.2 88.1 -6.9 716 3.6
13500 6.4 43.5 270 23 12 8.2 4.5 30.9 87.7 -7.2 665 3.4
13000 7.6 45.7 270 22 11 8.2 4.5 30.7 87.2 -7.5 614 3.1
12500 8.8 47.8 270 20 10 8.2 4.5 30.4 86.7 -7.8 563 2.9
12000 10.0 50.0 270 19 10 8.1 4.5 30.2 86.3 -8.1 512 2.6
11500 11.2 52.2 270 17 9 8.0 4.4 29.9 85.8 -8.4 461 2.3
11000 12.2 54.0 270 15 8 6.2 3.4 29.5 85.0 -8.8 416 2.1
10500 13.2 55.8 275 14 7 9.0 4.9 29.0 84.2 -9.3 371 1.9
10250 13.9 57.0 275 13 7 7.8 4.3 29.0 84.1 -9.4 343 1.7
10000 14.3 57.7 275 12 6 5.2 2.9 28.6 83.6 -9.8 323 1.6
9750 14.8 58.6 275 10 5 5.5 3.0 28.3 83.0 -10.1 303 1.5
9500 15.2 59.4 275 9 5 6.9 3.8 28.0 82.4 -10.4 284 1.4
9250 15.7 60.3 275 8 4 7.2 4.0 27.9 82.2 -10.6 259 1.3
9000 16.2 61.2 275 6 3 5.8 3.2 27.6 81.6 -10.9 238 1.2
8750 16.6 61.9 270 5 2 6.4 3.5 27.3 81.1 -11.2 217 1.1
8500 17.1 62.8 260 3 2 5.6 3.1 27.0 80.6 -11.5 196 1.0
8250 17.5 63.5 210 2 1 4.5 2.5 26.7 80.0 -11.9 178 0.9
8000 17.8 64.0 160 2 1 4.6 2.5 26.3 79.3 -12.3 160 0.8
7750 18.1 64.6 135 4 2 4.7 2.6 25.9 78.6 -12.8 143 0.7
7500 18.5 65.3 125 5 3 4.9 2.7 25.5 77.9 -13.2 125 0.6
7250 18.8 65.8 125 7 4 4.9 2.7 25.1 77.2 -13.6 107 0.5
7000 19.2 66.6 120 8 4 3.7 2.0 24.7 76.5 -14.0 89 0.5
6750 19.4 66.9 115 9 4 3.5 1.9 24.2 75.6 -14.5 75 0.4
6500 19.6 67.3 115 9 5 0.9 0.5 23.7 74.7 -15.1 62 0.3
6250 19.5 67.1 110 9 5 -2.7 -1.5 22.9 73.1 -16.0 58 0.3
6000 19.4 66.9 110 9 5 2.7 1.5 22.1 71.7 -16.8 53 0.3
5750 19.6 67.3 105 9 5 -1.6 -0.9 21.6 70.8 -17.4 39 0.2
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
07/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 07/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +35.4 LI... +0.3 | CAPE... +194.5 LI... -0.3
CINH... -154.5 K Index... +20.3 | CINH... -39.6 K Index... +19.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.5 -82.3 305 17 9 1.5 0.8 | -63.3 -81.9 290 16 8 1.3 0.7
45000 -59.7 -75.5 300 24 12 5.1 2.8 | -59.6 -75.3 280 23 12 5.2 2.9
40000 -51.3 -60.3 280 25 13 6.8 3.7 | -51.2 -60.2 275 27 14 6.1 3.3
38000 -47.2 -53.0 275 25 13 6.8 3.7 | -47.6 -53.7 275 26 13 6.0 3.3
36000 -43.1 -45.6 270 24 12 6.8 3.7 | -43.9 -47.0 275 24 12 6.0 3.3
34000 -39.4 -38.9 275 23 12 6.2 3.4 | -40.5 -40.9 280 22 11 5.7 3.1
32000 -35.7 -32.3 280 23 12 6.1 3.3 | -37.1 -34.8 290 20 10 5.4 3.0
30000 -31.8 -25.2 290 23 12 6.7 3.7 | -32.5 -26.5 290 21 11 7.9 4.3
29000 -29.8 -21.6 295 23 12 6.7 3.7 | -30.2 -22.4 285 22 11 7.9 4.4
28000 -27.7 -17.9 300 23 12 6.9 3.8 | -27.8 -18.0 285 22 12 7.9 4.3
27000 -25.6 -14.1 300 24 12 7.1 3.9 | -25.4 -13.7 285 23 12 7.9 4.3
26000 -23.5 -10.3 300 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -23.1 -9.6 285 23 12 7.9 4.3
25000 -20.9 -5.6 305 26 13 7.2 3.9 | -20.1 -4.2 290 23 12 7.5 4.1
24000 -18.8 -1.8 305 27 14 7.2 4.0 | -18.0 -0.4 295 22 12 7.4 4.0
23000 -16.7 1.9 305 27 14 7.3 4.0 | -15.8 3.6 300 22 11 7.4 4.1
22000 -14.6 5.7 305 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -13.6 7.5 300 22 11 7.5 4.1
21000 -12.1 10.2 305 26 13 8.2 4.5 | -11.5 11.3 300 21 11 7.5 4.1
20000 -9.7 14.5 305 23 12 8.3 4.5 | -9.3 15.3 300 20 10 7.6 4.2
19500 -8.5 16.7 300 22 11 8.2 4.5 | -8.2 17.2 300 20 10 7.9 4.3
19000 -7.3 18.9 300 21 11 8.1 4.4 | -6.9 19.6 295 19 10 8.6 4.7
18500 -6.1 21.0 300 20 10 8.1 4.4 | -5.7 21.7 290 19 10 8.6 4.7
18000 -4.9 23.2 295 19 10 8.8 4.8 | -4.4 24.1 285 19 10 8.7 4.8
17500 -3.6 25.5 295 18 9 8.9 4.9 | -3.1 26.4 285 19 10 8.7 4.8
17000 -2.3 27.9 295 18 9 9.0 4.9 | -1.8 28.8 280 18 9 8.8 4.8
16500 -0.9 30.4 295 17 9 9.3 5.1 | -0.5 31.1 280 18 9 9.0 4.9
16000 0.5 32.9 290 17 9 9.3 5.1 | 0.9 33.6 275 17 9 9.0 4.9
15500 1.9 35.4 290 17 9 9.3 5.1 | 2.2 36.0 275 17 9 9.2 5.1
15000 3.3 37.9 290 17 9 9.3 5.1 | 3.6 38.5 275 16 8 9.2 5.1
14500 4.7 40.5 290 17 9 9.3 5.1 | 5.0 41.0 275 15 8 9.2 5.0
14000 6.1 43.0 290 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 6.4 43.5 275 15 7 9.2 5.0
13500 7.5 45.5 290 16 8 9.2 5.1 | 7.7 45.9 275 14 7 9.1 5.0
13000 8.9 48.0 285 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 9.1 48.4 275 13 7 9.0 5.0
12500 10.2 50.4 280 14 7 8.9 4.9 | 10.4 50.7 275 13 7 9.0 5.0
12000 11.5 52.7 280 13 7 8.3 4.5 | 11.8 53.2 270 13 7 9.1 5.0
11500 12.7 54.9 275 12 6 8.3 4.5 | 13.1 55.6 270 12 6 9.0 5.0
11000 13.9 57.0 270 11 6 7.8 4.3 | 14.4 57.9 270 12 6 8.5 4.7
10500 15.1 59.2 270 10 5 6.0 3.3 | 15.7 60.3 270 12 6 10.3 5.6
10250 15.5 59.9 265 10 5 6.1 3.4 | 16.5 61.7 270 11 6 10.6 5.8
10000 16.1 61.0 260 9 5 8.7 4.7 | 17.2 63.0 270 11 6 8.4 4.6
9750 16.6 61.9 260 9 4 8.0 4.4 | 17.8 64.0 270 11 5 9.1 5.0
9500 17.2 63.0 260 8 4 8.1 4.5 | 18.5 65.3 270 10 5 8.7 4.8
9250 17.8 64.0 255 7 4 7.2 4.0 | 19.1 66.4 270 10 5 8.4 4.6
9000 18.7 65.7 245 6 3 6.4 3.5 | 19.7 67.5 270 9 5 8.6 4.7
8750 19.2 66.6 240 6 3 6.4 3.5 | 21.0 69.8 270 8 4 8.7 4.8
8500 19.6 67.3 235 6 3 6.4 3.5 | 21.6 70.9 270 7 4 6.9 3.8
8250 20.1 68.2 240 5 3 6.2 3.4 | 22.1 71.8 275 7 3 8.9 4.9
8000 20.5 68.9 230 5 3 6.0 3.3 | 22.9 73.2 275 6 3 11.8 6.5
7750 20.9 69.6 220 5 2 5.5 3.0 | 23.7 74.7 270 6 3 10.1 5.5
7500 21.3 70.3 205 5 2 4.3 2.3 | 24.4 75.9 275 6 3 7.7 4.2
7250 21.6 70.9 190 5 2 4.8 2.6 | 24.9 76.8 275 6 3 8.5 4.6
7000 22.0 71.6 180 5 3 7.2 3.9 | 25.7 78.3 275 6 3 12.6 6.9
6750 22.5 72.5 170 5 3 8.1 4.4 | 26.7 80.1 270 5 3 12.0 6.6
6500 23.1 73.6 160 5 3 7.9 4.3 | 27.5 81.5 275 5 3 10.0 5.5
6250 23.7 74.7 155 6 3 7.3 4.0 | 28.2 82.8 280 5 3 9.8 5.4
6000 24.3 75.7 145 6 3 9.6 5.2 | 29.0 84.2 280 5 3 11.6 6.4
5750 25.3 77.5 150 5 3 18.0 9.9 | 30.2 86.4 275 5 2 23.1 12.7
5500 26.8 80.2 140 5 3 21.8 11.9 | 32.7 90.9 280 5 2 44.8 24.6
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
07/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 07/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +132.9 LI... +0.2 | CAPE... +147.2 LI... -0.0
CINH... -20.4 K Index... +21.2 | CINH... -85.8 K Index... +21.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.4 -82.1 270 15 8 1.6 0.9 | -63.5 -82.3 275 19 10 1.6 0.9
45000 -59.4 -74.9 265 21 11 5.0 2.7 | -59.6 -75.3 260 26 13 4.9 2.7
40000 -51.4 -60.5 270 27 14 5.7 3.1 | -51.6 -60.9 260 30 15 6.1 3.3
38000 -48.0 -54.4 270 27 14 5.7 3.1 | -48.0 -54.4 265 28 14 6.1 3.3
36000 -44.6 -48.3 275 27 14 5.7 3.1 | -44.3 -47.7 265 26 14 6.2 3.4
34000 -40.7 -41.3 280 23 12 6.4 3.5 | -40.1 -40.2 270 24 12 7.0 3.8
32000 -36.9 -34.4 285 20 10 6.2 3.4 | -35.9 -32.6 270 21 11 6.8 3.7
30000 -32.1 -25.8 290 20 10 8.2 4.5 | -31.2 -24.2 260 19 10 8.0 4.4
29000 -29.7 -21.5 290 20 10 8.2 4.5 | -28.9 -20.0 260 19 10 8.0 4.4
28000 -27.2 -17.0 290 20 10 7.7 4.2 | -26.5 -15.7 255 18 9 7.5 4.1
27000 -25.0 -13.0 290 20 10 7.4 4.1 | -24.3 -11.7 250 18 9 7.3 4.0
26000 -22.3 -8.1 285 20 10 7.4 4.1 | -22.2 -8.0 250 18 9 7.3 4.0
25000 -20.0 -4.0 280 20 10 7.5 4.1 | -19.5 -3.1 245 18 9 7.2 3.9
24000 -17.8 -0.0 275 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -17.4 0.7 245 18 9 7.1 3.9
23000 -15.6 3.9 275 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -15.3 4.5 245 19 10 7.2 3.9
22000 -13.3 8.1 275 18 9 8.0 4.4 | -13.2 8.2 245 19 10 7.8 4.3
21000 -10.9 12.4 275 17 9 8.2 4.5 | -10.8 12.6 245 18 9 8.0 4.4
20000 -8.5 16.7 275 16 8 8.2 4.5 | -8.5 16.7 245 17 9 8.1 4.4
19500 -7.3 18.9 275 15 8 8.3 4.6 | -7.3 18.9 245 17 9 8.2 4.5
19000 -6.1 21.0 275 15 8 8.5 4.7 | -6.0 21.2 250 17 9 8.7 4.8
18500 -4.8 23.4 275 15 8 8.5 4.6 | -4.8 23.4 250 16 8 8.7 4.7
18000 -3.6 25.5 275 15 8 9.1 5.0 | -3.5 25.7 250 16 8 8.9 4.9
17500 -2.2 28.0 275 15 8 9.2 5.0 | -2.1 28.2 255 16 8 9.0 4.9
17000 -0.9 30.4 275 15 8 9.2 5.1 | -0.8 30.6 255 16 8 9.0 5.0
16500 0.5 32.9 275 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 0.6 33.1 255 15 8 9.1 5.0
16000 1.9 35.4 275 14 7 9.2 5.1 | 1.9 35.4 260 15 8 9.1 5.0
15500 3.3 37.9 275 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 3.3 37.9 260 15 8 9.0 5.0
15000 4.7 40.5 270 13 7 9.6 5.2 | 4.6 40.3 265 15 8 9.0 5.0
14500 6.1 43.0 270 13 7 9.5 5.2 | 6.0 42.8 265 15 8 9.0 4.9
14000 7.6 45.7 270 13 7 9.5 5.2 | 7.3 45.1 270 14 7 8.9 4.9
13500 9.0 48.2 270 13 6 9.5 5.2 | 8.6 47.5 275 14 7 8.9 4.9
13000 10.4 50.7 270 12 6 9.4 5.2 | 9.9 49.8 280 14 7 8.7 4.8
12500 11.8 53.2 270 12 6 9.4 5.1 | 11.2 52.2 285 13 7 8.7 4.8
12000 13.2 55.8 270 12 6 9.3 5.1 | 12.5 54.5 290 13 6 8.7 4.8
11500 14.6 58.3 270 12 6 9.3 5.1 | 13.8 56.8 295 12 6 8.8 4.8
11000 15.8 60.4 275 11 6 7.8 4.3 | 14.9 58.8 305 12 6 7.1 3.9
10500 17.0 62.6 275 11 6 12.2 6.7 | 16.0 60.8 310 12 6 10.5 5.8
10250 18.1 64.6 275 11 6 13.4 7.3 | 16.9 62.4 320 12 6 11.3 6.2
10000 18.8 65.8 275 11 6 8.4 4.6 | 17.5 63.5 325 12 6 7.4 4.1
9750 19.5 67.1 275 11 5 9.9 5.5 | 18.1 64.6 330 12 6 8.4 4.6
9500 20.2 68.4 275 11 5 8.8 4.8 | 18.7 65.7 330 12 6 8.2 4.5
9250 20.8 69.4 275 11 5 7.8 4.3 | 19.3 66.7 335 13 7 8.2 4.5
9000 21.5 70.7 280 10 5 9.6 5.3 | 20.5 68.9 340 15 8 7.7 4.2
8750 23.0 73.4 275 10 5 10.6 5.8 | 21.0 69.8 345 15 8 7.6 4.2
8500 23.8 74.8 280 10 5 8.7 4.8 | 21.6 70.9 350 16 8 9.2 5.0
8250 24.4 75.9 285 10 5 9.3 5.1 | 22.3 72.1 350 18 9 8.5 4.7
8000 25.2 77.4 280 10 5 11.3 6.2 | 22.8 73.0 355 18 9 6.6 3.6
7750 26.0 78.8 280 10 5 10.4 5.7 | 23.3 73.9 360 18 9 7.2 4.0
7500 26.7 80.1 280 10 5 8.3 4.6 | 23.9 75.0 360 19 10 8.1 4.5
7250 27.3 81.1 285 10 5 8.7 4.8 | 24.5 76.1 360 20 10 8.5 4.6
7000 28.1 82.6 285 10 5 12.0 6.6 | 25.1 77.2 360 20 10 7.2 3.9
6750 29.0 84.2 280 10 5 11.9 6.5 | 25.6 78.1 005 18 9 8.2 4.5
6500 29.9 85.8 280 10 5 10.3 5.7 | 26.3 79.3 005 18 9 10.2 5.6
6250 30.6 87.1 285 10 5 10.6 5.8 | 27.1 80.8 360 19 10 10.8 5.9
6000 31.4 88.5 290 10 5 8.5 4.7 | 27.8 82.0 360 18 10 7.7 4.2
5750 32.1 89.8 280 9 4 15.3 8.4 | 28.3 82.9 005 15 8 10.4 5.7
5500 35.1 95.2 290 9 5 80.1 44.0 | 30.5 86.9 360 15 8 62.0 34.0
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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