Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
445
UXUS97 KGJT 131306
SRGGJT
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
606 AM MST Thursday, November 13, 2025
This forecast is for Thursday, November 13, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 64.8 F/18.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 482 ft/min (2.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11532 ft MSL (5924 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 67.0 F/19.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1245 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8025 ft MSL (2418 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 11/14....... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:55:43 / 17:01:11 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 5 min 28 sec (605 min 28 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:58:27 MST... 32.70 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 11/13/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 12276 ft MSL (6668 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20135 ft MSL (14527 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15851 ft MSL (10244 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +7.9
K index......................... +10.5
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.6 -86.1 250 50 26 3.0 1.6 M M M M M
45000 -61.2 -78.2 245 59 30 2.2 1.2 M M M M M
40000 -57.9 -72.2 245 70 36 4.6 2.5 M M M M M
38000 -53.7 -64.7 250 68 35 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
36000 -49.6 -57.3 250 65 34 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
34000 -44.9 -48.8 250 63 33 8.5 4.7 M M M M M
32000 -39.8 -39.6 255 61 31 8.5 4.7 M M M M M
30000 -34.1 -29.4 250 59 30 8.3 4.5 41.2 106.2 16.5 M M
29000 -31.6 -24.9 250 58 30 8.3 4.5 40.7 105.2 16.3 M M
28000 -29.2 -20.6 250 57 29 8.5 4.7 40.2 104.4 16.2 M M
27000 -27.1 -16.8 250 54 28 6.4 3.5 39.1 102.4 15.4 M M
26000 -25.2 -13.4 255 52 27 6.5 3.5 37.8 100.1 14.6 M M
25000 -23.3 -9.9 255 49 25 6.5 3.5 36.7 98.0 13.8 M M
24000 -21.4 -6.5 260 47 24 6.4 3.5 35.5 95.8 13.0 M M
23000 -19.5 -3.1 255 45 23 6.4 3.5 34.2 93.6 12.1 M M
22000 -17.5 0.5 255 42 22 6.4 3.5 33.1 91.5 11.2 M M
21000 -15.4 4.3 255 40 21 7.9 4.3 32.2 90.0 10.6 M M
20000 -13.0 8.6 255 38 20 8.0 4.4 31.5 88.8 10.2 M M
19500 -11.8 10.8 255 37 19 7.9 4.3 31.3 88.3 10.0 M M
19000 -10.6 12.9 255 36 18 7.4 4.1 31.0 87.8 9.9 M M
18500 -9.7 14.5 255 35 18 5.3 2.9 30.3 86.6 9.3 M M
18000 -8.5 16.7 255 34 18 5.1 2.8 29.2 84.6 8.4 M M
17500 -7.9 17.8 250 33 17 3.5 1.9 28.3 82.9 7.6 M M
17000 -7.4 18.7 250 32 16 3.6 2.0 27.2 81.0 6.6 M M
16500 -6.9 19.6 250 30 16 4.3 2.4 26.2 79.2 5.8 M M
16000 -6.3 20.7 245 29 15 4.4 2.4 25.3 77.6 4.9 M M
15500 -5.6 21.9 245 28 14 4.7 2.6 24.5 76.0 4.1 M M
15000 -4.9 23.2 245 27 14 5.0 2.8 23.7 74.6 3.5 M M
14500 -4.1 24.6 245 25 13 5.2 2.8 22.9 73.2 2.8 M M
14000 -3.3 26.1 245 24 12 5.8 3.2 22.2 72.0 2.2 M M
13500 -2.4 27.7 240 23 12 5.8 3.2 21.5 70.8 1.6 M M
13000 -1.5 29.3 240 22 11 7.2 4.0 21.0 69.9 1.1 M M
12500 -0.4 31.3 240 21 11 7.1 3.9 20.6 69.1 0.7 M M
12000 0.7 33.3 235 20 10 8.0 4.4 20.2 68.4 0.3 M M
11500 1.8 35.2 235 19 10 8.0 4.4 19.9 67.9 -0.0 479 2.4
11000 2.9 37.2 235 17 9 7.3 4.0 19.6 67.3 -0.4 431 2.2
10500 4.0 39.2 230 16 8 9.4 5.1 19.2 66.6 -0.8 384 2.0
10250 4.8 40.6 230 15 8 9.5 5.2 19.3 66.7 -0.7 353 1.8
10000 5.3 41.5 230 14 7 6.7 3.7 19.1 66.4 -0.9 329 1.7
9750 5.9 42.6 225 13 7 7.9 4.3 18.9 66.0 -1.1 305 1.5
9500 6.4 43.5 225 12 6 6.1 3.3 18.7 65.7 -1.2 281 1.4
9250 6.8 44.2 220 12 6 5.4 2.9 18.4 65.1 -1.6 262 1.3
9000 7.3 45.1 215 11 6 6.8 3.7 18.1 64.6 -1.8 241 1.2
8750 7.8 46.0 210 10 5 6.9 3.8 17.9 64.2 -2.1 218 1.1
8500 8.3 46.9 200 10 5 6.4 3.5 17.6 63.8 -2.3 196 1.0
8250 8.7 47.7 195 10 5 5.2 2.9 17.3 63.2 -2.6 175 0.9
8000 9.1 48.4 190 9 5 4.9 2.7 17.0 62.5 -2.9 157 0.8
7750 9.5 49.1 180 9 5 5.3 2.9 16.6 61.9 -3.3 138 0.7
7500 9.8 49.6 175 9 4 4.5 2.5 16.3 61.3 -3.7 119 0.6
7250 10.1 50.2 170 9 5 3.6 2.0 15.8 60.5 -4.1 103 0.5
7000 10.4 50.7 165 10 5 3.7 2.0 15.3 59.6 -4.6 87 0.4
6750 10.7 51.3 160 9 5 2.8 1.6 14.9 58.8 -5.1 72 0.4
6500 10.8 51.4 155 9 5 -0.5 -0.3 14.2 57.6 -5.7 62 0.3
6250 10.5 50.9 150 8 4 -5.5 -3.0 13.3 55.9 -6.7 61 0.3
6000 10.3 50.5 140 7 4 5.7 3.1 12.4 54.2 -7.6 60 0.3
5750 10.9 51.6 135 7 3 -1.0 -0.5 12.2 54.0 -7.7 35 0.2
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
11/13/2025 at 0800 MST | 11/13/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.0 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.6
CINH... -0.2 K Index... +12.7 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... +11.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.9 -86.6 265 40 21 3.6 2.0 | -65.9 -86.6 255 44 23 3.3 1.8
45000 -60.7 -77.3 260 55 28 2.4 1.3 | -61.2 -78.2 260 57 29 2.5 1.4
40000 -56.9 -70.4 260 61 31 4.7 2.6 | -57.1 -70.8 260 66 34 5.5 3.0
38000 -53.1 -63.6 260 63 32 6.3 3.5 | -53.0 -63.4 260 64 33 6.8 3.8
36000 -49.3 -56.7 260 65 33 6.3 3.4 | -48.9 -56.0 260 61 31 6.8 3.8
34000 -44.8 -48.6 260 62 32 8.2 4.5 | -44.5 -48.1 260 58 30 7.5 4.1
32000 -39.9 -39.8 260 58 30 8.2 4.5 | -40.0 -40.0 260 55 28 7.5 4.1
30000 -35.0 -31.0 260 54 28 8.2 4.5 | -35.2 -31.4 265 53 27 8.3 4.6
29000 -32.6 -26.7 260 52 27 8.2 4.5 | -32.7 -26.9 260 51 26 8.3 4.6
28000 -30.1 -22.2 260 51 26 8.2 4.5 | -30.2 -22.4 260 50 26 8.3 4.6
27000 -27.8 -18.0 260 49 25 7.0 3.9 | -27.8 -18.0 260 48 25 7.7 4.2
26000 -25.7 -14.3 265 48 25 7.0 3.8 | -25.5 -13.9 260 47 24 7.7 4.2
25000 -23.1 -9.6 265 47 24 7.0 3.9 | -22.7 -8.9 260 45 23 7.7 4.2
24000 -21.4 -6.5 265 46 23 4.9 2.7 | -20.8 -5.4 260 43 22 5.4 3.0
23000 -20.0 -4.0 265 44 23 4.9 2.7 | -19.2 -2.6 260 42 22 5.4 3.0
22000 -18.5 -1.3 265 43 22 4.9 2.7 | -17.6 0.3 260 40 21 5.4 3.0
21000 -16.7 1.9 265 41 21 6.6 3.6 | -15.9 3.4 260 39 20 5.9 3.2
20000 -14.8 5.4 260 38 20 6.6 3.6 | -14.2 6.4 260 37 19 6.0 3.3
19500 -13.9 7.0 260 37 19 6.6 3.6 | -13.4 7.9 260 36 19 6.1 3.3
19000 -12.9 8.8 260 35 18 6.1 3.4 | -12.5 9.5 260 35 18 5.7 3.2
18500 -12.1 10.2 260 34 18 5.8 3.2 | -11.7 10.9 260 34 17 5.5 3.0
18000 -11.3 11.7 260 33 17 5.8 3.2 | -10.9 12.4 260 32 16 5.5 3.0
17500 -10.5 13.1 265 32 16 4.5 2.5 | -10.2 13.6 260 30 16 4.9 2.7
17000 -9.8 14.4 265 30 15 4.7 2.6 | -9.5 14.9 260 29 15 5.0 2.7
16500 -9.1 15.6 265 29 15 4.7 2.6 | -8.7 16.3 260 27 14 4.7 2.6
16000 -8.4 16.9 265 27 14 4.7 2.6 | -8.0 17.6 260 26 13 4.7 2.6
15500 -7.8 18.0 270 26 13 5.3 2.9 | -7.3 18.9 260 25 13 5.1 2.8
15000 -6.9 19.6 270 24 12 6.3 3.5 | -6.5 20.3 260 23 12 5.8 3.2
14500 -5.9 21.4 270 22 11 6.4 3.5 | -5.6 21.9 260 22 11 5.9 3.3
14000 -4.9 23.2 270 21 11 7.0 3.8 | -4.6 23.7 260 21 11 7.0 3.8
13500 -3.9 25.0 270 19 10 6.8 3.7 | -3.6 25.5 260 20 10 6.9 3.8
13000 -2.8 27.0 270 18 9 8.0 4.4 | -2.5 27.5 260 18 9 7.3 4.0
12500 -1.6 29.1 270 17 9 7.9 4.3 | -1.4 29.5 260 17 9 7.2 4.0
12000 -0.5 31.1 270 16 8 7.7 4.2 | -0.3 31.5 260 16 8 7.6 4.2
11500 0.7 33.3 270 15 8 7.8 4.3 | 0.8 33.4 255 15 8 7.6 4.2
11000 1.8 35.2 270 14 7 6.8 3.7 | 1.9 35.4 255 14 7 7.4 4.1
10500 2.8 37.0 265 13 7 7.1 3.9 | 3.0 37.4 250 13 7 7.6 4.2
10250 3.3 37.9 260 12 6 6.0 3.3 | 3.5 38.3 250 13 7 6.7 3.7
10000 3.7 38.7 260 12 6 5.9 3.2 | 4.0 39.2 250 13 7 6.6 3.6
9750 4.2 39.6 255 11 6 6.9 3.8 | 4.6 40.3 245 12 6 7.6 4.2
9500 4.7 40.5 255 10 5 6.7 3.7 | 5.1 41.2 245 11 6 7.3 4.0
9250 5.2 41.4 250 10 5 6.0 3.3 | 5.6 42.1 240 10 5 6.6 3.6
9000 5.7 42.3 245 9 5 5.6 3.1 | 6.1 43.0 235 10 5 6.2 3.4
8750 6.6 43.9 235 8 4 5.8 3.2 | 6.6 43.9 235 9 5 6.8 3.7
8500 7.0 44.6 225 7 4 4.7 2.6 | 7.1 44.8 230 8 4 6.2 3.4
8250 7.3 45.1 220 6 3 4.3 2.3 | 7.8 46.0 220 7 4 4.4 2.4
8000 7.6 45.7 210 6 3 5.3 2.9 | 8.2 46.8 215 6 3 6.4 3.5
7750 8.1 46.6 200 6 3 5.3 2.9 | 8.7 47.7 205 5 3 5.9 3.2
7500 8.4 47.1 190 6 3 4.6 2.5 | 9.1 48.4 195 5 3 4.3 2.4
7250 8.8 47.8 180 7 3 4.8 2.6 | 9.4 48.9 185 5 2 4.2 2.3
7000 9.1 48.4 175 7 4 4.1 2.2 | 9.8 49.6 175 5 2 8.9 4.9
6750 9.3 48.7 170 7 3 1.6 0.9 | 10.6 51.1 175 4 2 9.8 5.4
6500 9.4 48.9 160 6 3 -0.1 -0.1 | 11.2 52.2 165 4 2 6.9 3.8
6250 9.4 48.9 155 6 3 2.2 1.2 | 11.8 53.2 160 4 2 7.5 4.1
6000 9.5 49.1 145 6 3 -5.3 -2.9 | 12.4 54.3 160 4 2 11.9 6.5
5750 8.3 46.9 130 4 2 -25.8 -14.2 | 13.6 56.5 155 3 2 19.9 10.9
5500 6.6 43.9 105 4 2 -6.1 -3.4 | 14.7 58.5 150 3 2 1.7 0.9
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
11/13/2025 at 1400 MST | 11/13/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.9
CINH... -0.1 K Index... +11.6 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +11.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.5 -85.9 260 50 25 2.6 1.4 | -65.2 -85.4 265 51 26 2.3 1.2
45000 -61.6 -78.9 260 62 32 2.7 1.5 | -61.6 -78.9 260 63 32 3.1 1.7
40000 -57.2 -71.0 255 71 36 5.6 3.1 | -56.7 -70.1 255 67 35 5.2 2.9
38000 -53.1 -63.6 255 68 35 7.0 3.8 | -52.8 -63.0 255 65 33 6.4 3.5
36000 -48.9 -56.0 255 65 33 7.0 3.8 | -49.0 -56.2 255 63 32 6.4 3.5
34000 -44.3 -47.7 255 61 31 7.8 4.3 | -44.6 -48.3 255 59 30 7.9 4.3
32000 -39.6 -39.3 260 56 29 7.8 4.3 | -39.9 -39.8 255 55 28 7.9 4.3
30000 -34.9 -30.8 260 52 27 7.9 4.3 | -35.0 -31.0 255 51 26 8.1 4.4
29000 -32.5 -26.5 260 49 25 7.9 4.3 | -32.6 -26.7 255 50 26 8.1 4.4
28000 -30.2 -22.4 260 47 24 7.9 4.3 | -30.2 -22.4 255 48 25 8.1 4.5
27000 -27.9 -18.2 260 46 24 7.4 4.0 | -27.9 -18.2 255 47 24 6.8 3.7
26000 -25.7 -14.3 260 46 24 7.4 4.0 | -25.9 -14.6 255 47 24 6.8 3.7
25000 -23.0 -9.4 260 46 23 7.4 4.1 | -23.4 -10.1 260 46 24 6.8 3.8
24000 -20.9 -5.6 260 44 23 6.7 3.7 | -21.3 -6.3 260 45 23 7.0 3.9
23000 -18.9 -2.0 260 42 22 6.7 3.7 | -19.2 -2.6 260 43 22 7.1 3.9
22000 -16.9 1.6 260 40 21 6.8 3.7 | -17.1 1.2 260 41 21 7.2 3.9
21000 -15.2 4.6 260 38 20 5.3 2.9 | -15.2 4.6 260 38 20 5.9 3.3
20000 -13.6 7.5 260 36 19 5.3 2.9 | -13.4 7.9 260 36 18 6.0 3.3
19500 -12.9 8.8 260 35 18 5.4 3.0 | -12.6 9.3 260 35 18 5.9 3.3
19000 -12.1 10.2 260 35 18 5.2 2.8 | -11.7 10.9 260 33 17 5.3 2.9
18500 -11.4 11.5 260 33 17 5.0 2.7 | -11.0 12.2 260 32 17 4.9 2.7
18000 -10.7 12.7 260 32 17 5.1 2.8 | -10.3 13.5 260 31 16 5.0 2.7
17500 -10.0 14.0 260 31 16 5.1 2.8 | -9.6 14.7 260 30 15 4.2 2.3
17000 -9.3 15.3 260 30 15 5.1 2.8 | -9.0 15.8 260 28 14 4.4 2.4
16500 -8.5 16.7 260 29 15 5.3 2.9 | -8.4 16.9 260 26 14 5.1 2.8
16000 -7.7 18.1 260 27 14 5.4 2.9 | -7.6 18.3 260 25 13 5.4 3.0
15500 -6.9 19.6 260 26 13 5.6 3.1 | -6.8 19.8 260 23 12 5.8 3.2
15000 -6.0 21.2 260 24 13 6.2 3.4 | -5.8 21.6 260 22 11 6.7 3.7
14500 -5.1 22.8 260 23 12 6.2 3.4 | -4.8 23.4 260 21 11 6.7 3.7
14000 -4.1 24.6 255 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -3.8 25.2 255 20 10 6.8 3.7
13500 -3.1 26.4 255 19 10 6.3 3.5 | -2.8 27.0 250 19 10 6.7 3.7
13000 -2.1 28.2 250 17 9 7.2 4.0 | -1.8 28.8 245 17 9 7.0 3.9
12500 -1.1 30.0 245 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -0.7 30.7 240 16 8 6.9 3.8
12000 0.1 32.2 240 15 8 7.8 4.3 | 0.4 32.7 235 16 8 7.8 4.3
11500 1.2 34.2 235 14 7 7.8 4.3 | 1.5 34.7 230 15 8 7.8 4.3
11000 2.3 36.1 235 13 7 7.7 4.2 | 2.7 36.9 225 14 7 8.3 4.5
10500 3.5 38.3 230 12 6 8.1 4.4 | 3.9 39.0 220 13 7 8.6 4.7
10250 4.0 39.2 230 12 6 6.3 3.4 | 4.5 40.1 215 13 7 6.9 3.8
10000 4.5 40.1 230 12 6 6.9 3.8 | 5.0 41.0 215 12 6 7.4 4.0
9750 5.1 41.2 230 11 6 9.0 4.9 | 5.6 42.1 210 12 6 9.4 5.1
9500 5.7 42.3 230 11 5 8.6 4.7 | 6.3 43.3 210 11 6 9.0 4.9
9250 6.4 43.5 225 10 5 7.9 4.3 | 7.0 44.6 205 10 5 8.5 4.7
9000 6.9 44.4 225 9 5 7.3 4.0 | 8.1 46.6 200 9 4 7.9 4.3
8750 7.5 45.5 220 8 4 7.8 4.3 | 8.7 47.7 200 8 4 7.8 4.3
8500 8.6 47.5 220 6 3 5.8 3.2 | 9.3 48.7 200 7 4 6.6 3.6
8250 9.0 48.2 215 5 3 5.7 3.1 | 9.7 49.5 190 7 4 6.2 3.4
8000 9.5 49.1 210 5 2 9.1 5.0 | 10.3 50.5 190 6 3 7.8 4.3
7750 10.2 50.4 210 4 2 8.7 4.8 | 10.9 51.6 190 5 3 7.5 4.1
7500 10.8 51.4 215 3 2 6.2 3.4 | 11.4 52.5 185 4 2 6.2 3.4
7250 11.2 52.2 220 3 1 5.9 3.2 | 11.8 53.2 185 4 2 6.0 3.3
7000 11.8 53.2 230 2 1 11.5 6.3 | 12.3 54.1 180 3 2 7.5 4.1
6750 12.8 55.0 230 2 1 12.0 6.6 | 12.9 55.2 190 1 1 7.8 4.3
6500 13.5 56.3 240 2 1 8.5 4.6 | 13.4 56.1 235 1 0 6.4 3.5
6250 14.2 57.6 250 2 1 8.8 4.8 | 13.9 57.0 290 1 1 8.2 4.5
6000 14.9 58.8 260 2 1 11.5 6.3 | 14.4 57.9 310 2 1 2.3 1.3
5750 16.0 60.8 255 2 1 19.3 10.6 | 14.0 57.2 315 2 1 -13.7 -7.5
5500 17.2 63.0 280 2 1 7.0 3.9 | 13.2 55.8 320 2 1 1.1 0.6
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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