Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
542
UXUS97 KGJT 051306
SRGGJT
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
706 AM MDT Sunday, October 5, 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, October 5, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 61.4 F/16.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 893 ft/min (4.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 14951 ft MSL (10112 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 68.0 F/20.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9663 ft MSL (4824 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 10/06....... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:14:34 / 18:50:13 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 35 min 39 sec (695 min 39 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:02:23 MDT... 45.83 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 10/05/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 10860 ft MSL (6021 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14010 ft MSL (9171 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14298 ft MSL (9459 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +5.5
K index......................... +14.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.4 -76.7 235 34 18 8.2 4.5 97.5 207.4 44.5 M M
45000 -54.0 -65.2 235 62 32 2.2 1.2 83.8 182.8 39.2 M M
40000 -51.8 -61.2 240 81 42 2.0 1.1 63.1 145.6 28.4 M M
38000 -49.1 -56.4 240 85 44 5.0 2.7 58.4 137.1 26.0 M M
36000 -47.9 -54.2 240 76 39 -6.0 -3.3 51.7 125.1 22.0 M M
34000 -45.9 -50.6 240 79 41 7.9 4.3 46.1 115.1 18.6 M M
32000 -42.9 -45.2 240 72 37 2.8 1.5 42.2 108.0 16.2 M M
30000 -38.6 -37.5 240 58 30 6.6 3.6 39.2 102.6 14.4 M M
29000 -36.4 -33.5 245 57 29 8.6 4.7 38.3 100.9 13.9 M M
28000 -33.9 -29.0 245 56 29 8.9 4.9 37.7 99.9 13.6 M M
27000 -31.4 -24.5 245 58 30 8.1 4.5 37.3 99.1 13.4 M M
26000 -28.9 -20.0 245 57 30 8.1 4.5 36.6 98.0 13.1 M M
25000 -26.6 -15.9 250 57 29 7.1 3.9 36.0 96.7 12.7 M M
24000 -24.4 -11.9 255 51 26 7.4 4.1 35.0 95.1 12.1 M M
23000 -22.1 -7.8 250 51 26 7.5 4.1 34.2 93.6 11.6 M M
22000 -20.0 -4.0 250 52 27 6.1 3.3 33.3 91.9 11.0 M M
21000 -18.1 -0.6 250 46 24 1.2 0.7 32.0 89.6 10.0 M M
20000 -17.5 0.5 250 40 21 5.7 3.1 29.4 84.9 7.8 M M
19500 -16.8 1.8 250 39 20 5.3 2.9 28.6 83.4 7.1 M M
19000 -15.6 3.9 255 39 20 9.5 5.2 28.2 82.8 6.8 M M
18500 -14.2 6.4 255 38 20 9.4 5.2 28.2 82.7 6.8 M M
18000 -13.2 8.2 250 37 19 5.2 2.9 27.7 81.9 6.5 M M
17500 -13.1 8.4 250 39 20 -3.9 -2.1 26.1 79.0 5.1 M M
17000 -13.0 8.6 245 41 21 5.4 3.0 24.7 76.4 3.8 M M
16500 -13.3 8.1 245 34 18 -9.0 -4.9 22.7 72.8 2.0 M M
16000 -12.8 9.0 245 20 10 8.6 4.7 20.8 69.4 0.3 M M
15500 -11.6 11.1 240 20 10 8.4 4.6 20.6 69.0 0.2 M M
15000 -10.3 13.5 235 21 11 8.4 4.6 20.4 68.7 -0.0 888 4.5
14500 -9.1 15.6 235 20 10 8.4 4.6 20.2 68.3 -0.2 836 4.2
14000 -7.8 18.0 230 20 10 8.4 4.6 20.0 68.0 -0.4 783 4.0
13500 -6.6 20.1 230 18 9 8.4 4.6 19.8 67.6 -0.6 731 3.7
13000 -5.3 22.5 230 16 8 8.4 4.6 19.6 67.2 -0.8 679 3.4
12500 -4.0 24.8 230 19 10 8.4 4.6 19.3 66.8 -1.0 627 3.2
12000 -2.8 27.0 240 18 9 8.4 4.6 19.1 66.4 -1.3 574 2.9
11500 -1.5 29.3 230 18 9 8.4 4.6 18.9 66.0 -1.5 522 2.7
11000 -0.3 31.5 230 14 7 8.5 4.6 18.6 65.5 -1.7 470 2.4
10500 1.0 33.8 240 15 8 8.6 4.7 18.4 65.1 -2.0 418 2.1
10250 1.6 34.9 245 17 9 7.8 4.3 18.3 64.9 -2.1 391 2.0
10000 2.1 35.8 245 16 8 5.2 2.9 18.0 64.4 -2.4 370 1.9
9750 2.3 36.1 240 16 8 3.4 1.9 17.6 63.6 -2.8 354 1.8
9500 2.6 36.7 240 14 7 6.6 3.6 17.1 62.8 -3.3 338 1.7
9250 3.3 37.9 235 11 6 9.2 5.1 17.1 62.7 -3.4 311 1.6
9000 3.9 39.0 225 9 5 8.4 4.6 17.0 62.5 -3.5 284 1.4
8750 4.6 40.3 230 8 4 9.0 4.9 16.9 62.4 -3.6 257 1.3
8500 5.2 41.4 240 7 4 7.4 4.0 16.8 62.2 -3.7 231 1.2
8250 5.6 42.1 255 6 3 5.7 3.1 16.5 61.7 -4.0 211 1.1
8000 6.1 43.0 275 5 3 7.6 4.2 16.3 61.3 -4.3 190 1.0
7750 6.7 44.1 290 5 2 8.7 4.8 16.2 61.1 -4.4 164 0.8
7500 7.3 45.1 305 3 2 8.4 4.6 16.1 60.9 -4.5 138 0.7
7250 8.0 46.4 330 3 1 8.5 4.6 16.0 60.7 -4.6 111 0.6
7000 8.6 47.5 360 3 1 8.4 4.6 15.9 60.6 -4.7 85 0.4
6750 9.2 48.6 005 2 1 8.5 4.7 15.8 60.4 -4.8 59 0.3
6500 9.9 49.8 070 2 1 8.3 4.5 15.7 60.2 -4.9 33 0.2
6250 10.5 50.9 115 4 2 9.1 5.0 15.6 60.0 -5.0 6 0.0
6000 11.1 52.0 140 6 3 5.9 3.2 15.5 59.8 -5.2 M M
5750 11.2 52.2 140 9 5 -3.2 -1.8 14.8 58.7 -5.8 M M
5500 10.9 51.6 135 12 6 -2.4 -1.3 13.8 56.8 -6.8 M M
5250 10.8 51.4 130 12 6 -4.2 -2.3 12.9 55.3 -7.7 M M
5000 9.9 49.8 120 8 4 -20.7 -11.3 11.3 52.3 -9.4 M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/05/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/05/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.6 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.9
CINH... -0.2 K Index... +14.3 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... +13.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.2 -74.6 235 45 23 3.3 1.8 | -59.3 -74.7 240 48 25 2.8 1.5
45000 -54.4 -65.9 235 59 30 2.5 1.4 | -55.1 -67.2 235 63 33 2.6 1.4
40000 -50.5 -58.9 245 78 40 2.5 1.4 | -51.2 -60.2 240 81 42 2.6 1.4
38000 -49.3 -56.7 245 80 41 1.8 1.0 | -49.9 -57.8 240 84 43 1.7 0.9
36000 -48.2 -54.8 240 82 42 1.8 1.0 | -48.9 -56.0 240 86 44 1.7 0.9
34000 -46.4 -51.5 240 80 41 5.1 2.8 | -47.1 -52.8 240 82 42 5.3 2.9
32000 -43.3 -45.9 240 73 37 5.1 2.8 | -44.0 -47.2 240 70 36 5.2 2.9
30000 -39.9 -39.8 245 64 33 6.9 3.8 | -40.4 -40.7 240 59 30 7.3 4.0
29000 -37.8 -36.0 245 59 30 6.9 3.8 | -38.2 -36.8 240 54 28 7.3 4.0
28000 -35.7 -32.3 245 53 28 6.9 3.8 | -36.0 -32.8 240 49 25 7.3 4.0
27000 -33.6 -28.5 250 48 25 7.8 4.3 | -33.8 -28.8 240 44 23 8.2 4.5
26000 -31.2 -24.2 250 45 23 8.1 4.4 | -31.3 -24.3 240 41 21 8.2 4.5
25000 -28.7 -19.7 255 42 22 8.1 4.4 | -28.9 -20.0 245 39 20 8.3 4.5
24000 -25.7 -14.3 255 38 20 8.2 4.5 | -26.4 -15.5 245 37 19 8.2 4.5
23000 -23.2 -9.8 260 35 18 8.2 4.5 | -23.3 -9.9 245 34 17 8.2 4.5
22000 -20.8 -5.4 260 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -20.9 -5.6 245 32 16 8.2 4.5
21000 -18.5 -1.3 260 31 16 6.2 3.4 | -18.5 -1.3 245 30 15 7.4 4.1
20000 -16.6 2.1 260 29 15 6.4 3.5 | -16.2 2.8 245 28 14 7.5 4.1
19500 -15.7 3.7 260 29 15 6.4 3.5 | -15.1 4.8 245 27 14 7.5 4.1
19000 -14.7 5.5 255 28 15 6.5 3.5 | -14.0 6.8 245 26 13 7.8 4.3
18500 -13.8 7.2 255 28 14 5.2 2.9 | -13.0 8.6 240 25 13 5.0 2.8
18000 -13.1 8.4 255 28 14 5.3 2.9 | -12.3 9.9 240 25 13 5.2 2.9
17500 -12.3 9.9 255 28 14 5.3 2.9 | -11.5 11.3 240 25 13 4.9 2.7
17000 -11.6 11.1 255 27 14 5.2 2.8 | -10.8 12.6 240 24 13 4.7 2.6
16500 -10.9 12.4 250 26 13 5.3 2.9 | -10.2 13.6 240 24 12 4.7 2.6
16000 -10.2 13.6 250 24 13 4.2 2.3 | -9.5 14.9 240 23 12 4.4 2.4
15500 -9.6 14.7 250 23 12 4.3 2.4 | -8.9 16.0 240 22 11 4.5 2.5
15000 -8.9 16.0 250 22 11 5.0 2.7 | -8.3 17.1 240 21 11 4.4 2.4
14500 -8.2 17.2 245 21 11 5.2 2.9 | -7.7 18.1 240 20 10 4.5 2.4
14000 -7.4 18.7 245 20 10 6.2 3.4 | -7.0 19.4 235 18 9 5.5 3.0
13500 -6.4 20.5 245 19 10 7.0 3.8 | -6.2 20.8 235 17 9 6.1 3.3
13000 -5.4 22.3 240 18 9 7.2 4.0 | -5.3 22.5 235 16 8 6.9 3.8
12500 -4.3 24.3 240 17 9 7.5 4.1 | -4.2 24.4 235 15 8 7.8 4.3
12000 -3.2 26.2 235 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -3.0 26.6 235 14 7 7.9 4.3
11500 -2.1 28.2 235 15 7 7.2 4.0 | -1.8 28.8 235 13 7 7.9 4.3
11000 -1.0 30.2 230 13 7 6.9 3.8 | -0.7 30.7 230 12 6 7.2 4.0
10500 -0.1 31.8 230 11 6 5.9 3.2 | 0.3 32.5 230 11 6 5.6 3.1
10250 0.4 32.7 225 10 5 7.2 3.9 | 0.8 33.4 230 11 6 9.3 5.1
10000 1.8 35.2 225 9 5 8.0 4.4 | 1.6 34.9 230 9 5 10.5 5.8
9750 1.5 34.7 225 8 4 6.4 3.5 | 2.2 36.0 230 8 4 7.0 3.8
9500 1.9 35.4 220 7 4 5.9 3.3 | 2.7 36.9 230 7 4 7.8 4.3
9250 2.4 36.3 220 6 3 6.0 3.3 | 3.3 37.9 235 6 3 6.3 3.5
9000 2.8 37.0 215 5 3 6.3 3.5 | 3.7 38.7 235 6 3 5.9 3.3
8750 3.3 37.9 210 4 2 6.4 3.5 | 4.2 39.6 235 5 2 8.1 4.5
8500 4.2 39.6 210 3 1 6.2 3.4 | 4.9 40.8 240 4 2 9.2 5.0
8250 4.7 40.5 205 2 1 6.2 3.4 | 6.0 42.8 250 3 1 6.2 3.4
8000 5.1 41.2 205 2 1 6.4 3.5 | 6.6 43.9 255 2 1 8.5 4.7
7750 5.6 42.1 205 1 1 7.0 3.9 | 7.3 45.1 255 2 1 10.9 6.0
7500 6.1 43.0 205 1 0 5.5 3.0 | 8.1 46.6 260 2 1 8.3 4.6
7250 6.4 43.5 190 1 0 3.3 1.8 | 8.6 47.5 270 2 1 5.8 3.2
7000 6.8 44.2 000 0 0 6.0 3.3 | 9.1 48.4 280 2 1 10.7 5.9
6750 7.3 45.1 000 0 0 7.8 4.3 | 10.1 50.2 275 2 1 13.6 7.5
6500 7.8 46.0 070 1 0 6.1 3.3 | 11.0 51.8 275 2 1 10.2 5.6
6250 8.3 46.9 075 1 0 5.2 2.8 | 11.7 53.1 280 2 1 9.5 5.2
6000 8.7 47.7 075 1 1 6.6 3.6 | 12.4 54.3 290 2 1 8.8 4.8
5750 9.3 48.7 075 1 0 10.3 5.7 | 13.2 55.8 275 2 1 14.0 7.7
5500 10.2 50.4 065 1 1 11.0 6.1 | 15.5 59.9 295 2 1 61.1 33.5
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/05/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/05/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +0.1 LI... +3.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.6
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +15.8 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +18.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.0 -74.2 240 50 26 2.0 1.1 | -59.0 -74.2 245 49 25 1.8 1.0
45000 -56.0 -68.8 240 68 35 2.3 1.3 | -56.2 -69.2 245 68 35 2.2 1.2
40000 -52.6 -62.7 240 84 43 2.3 1.3 | -52.9 -63.2 240 80 41 2.2 1.2
38000 -50.9 -59.6 240 86 45 2.5 1.4 | -51.3 -60.3 240 82 42 2.5 1.4
36000 -49.4 -56.9 240 87 45 2.5 1.4 | -49.8 -57.6 240 82 42 2.5 1.4
34000 -47.2 -53.0 240 83 43 5.7 3.1 | -47.5 -53.5 240 79 41 5.5 3.0
32000 -43.8 -46.8 235 72 37 5.6 3.1 | -44.2 -47.6 240 69 36 5.5 3.0
30000 -40.1 -40.2 235 61 31 7.0 3.9 | -40.5 -40.9 240 60 31 7.7 4.2
29000 -38.0 -36.4 235 55 28 7.0 3.8 | -38.2 -36.8 240 55 28 7.6 4.2
28000 -35.9 -32.6 235 49 25 7.0 3.8 | -35.9 -32.6 240 50 26 7.6 4.2
27000 -33.7 -28.7 235 44 22 8.1 4.5 | -33.6 -28.5 240 46 24 7.9 4.4
26000 -31.3 -24.3 235 41 21 8.1 4.5 | -31.2 -24.2 240 43 22 7.9 4.4
25000 -28.9 -20.0 235 38 20 8.1 4.5 | -28.8 -19.8 235 40 20 7.9 4.4
24000 -26.4 -15.5 240 35 18 8.4 4.6 | -26.4 -15.5 235 37 19 8.2 4.5
23000 -23.3 -9.9 235 33 17 8.5 4.7 | -23.3 -9.9 235 35 18 8.3 4.6
22000 -20.7 -5.3 235 32 16 8.5 4.7 | -20.8 -5.4 235 34 17 8.3 4.6
21000 -18.3 -0.9 235 30 16 7.5 4.1 | -18.5 -1.3 235 32 17 7.0 3.8
20000 -16.0 3.2 235 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -16.4 2.5 235 30 16 7.0 3.9
19500 -14.9 5.2 235 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -15.3 4.5 235 30 15 7.0 3.9
19000 -13.8 7.2 235 28 14 7.7 4.2 | -14.3 6.3 235 29 15 7.1 3.9
18500 -12.8 9.0 235 27 14 5.2 2.9 | -13.4 7.9 235 28 14 5.1 2.8
18000 -12.0 10.4 235 27 14 5.4 3.0 | -12.6 9.3 235 27 14 5.4 2.9
17500 -11.2 11.8 235 27 14 4.9 2.7 | -11.8 10.8 230 26 13 5.3 2.9
17000 -10.6 12.9 235 26 13 4.5 2.5 | -11.1 12.0 230 25 13 5.3 2.9
16500 -10.0 14.0 235 25 13 4.5 2.5 | -10.3 13.5 230 24 12 5.5 3.0
16000 -9.3 15.3 235 24 12 4.6 2.5 | -9.5 14.9 225 23 12 6.0 3.3
15500 -8.7 16.3 230 23 12 4.6 2.5 | -8.6 16.5 225 21 11 6.0 3.3
15000 -8.0 17.6 230 21 11 5.9 3.3 | -7.7 18.1 220 20 10 7.3 4.0
14500 -7.1 19.2 225 19 10 6.0 3.3 | -6.7 19.9 215 19 10 7.3 4.0
14000 -6.3 20.7 225 18 9 7.0 3.8 | -5.6 21.9 210 17 9 7.5 4.1
13500 -5.2 22.6 220 16 8 7.4 4.0 | -4.5 23.9 205 16 8 7.6 4.2
13000 -4.2 24.4 220 15 8 7.7 4.2 | -3.4 25.9 205 14 7 8.0 4.4
12500 -3.0 26.6 220 13 7 7.9 4.3 | -2.2 28.0 205 13 7 8.4 4.6
12000 -1.8 28.8 220 11 6 7.9 4.3 | -1.0 30.2 205 11 6 8.3 4.6
11500 -0.7 30.7 225 10 5 7.9 4.3 | 0.3 32.5 205 10 5 8.2 4.5
11000 0.5 32.9 230 8 4 7.3 4.0 | 1.5 34.7 210 8 4 7.7 4.2
10500 1.5 34.7 235 7 4 5.4 3.0 | 2.6 36.7 220 7 4 6.1 3.3
10250 2.0 35.6 235 7 4 10.9 6.0 | 3.1 37.6 220 6 3 10.4 5.7
10000 3.0 37.4 240 6 3 12.6 6.9 | 4.0 39.2 225 6 3 11.7 6.4
9750 3.7 38.7 240 6 3 7.9 4.4 | 4.7 40.5 230 5 3 7.7 4.2
9500 4.4 39.9 245 6 3 9.9 5.5 | 5.3 41.5 240 5 3 9.0 4.9
9250 5.1 41.2 250 5 3 6.2 3.4 | 5.9 42.6 245 5 2 6.8 3.7
9000 5.4 41.7 265 5 3 6.8 3.7 | 6.4 43.5 260 5 2 7.4 4.1
8750 6.2 43.2 265 5 3 10.6 5.8 | 7.1 44.8 265 5 2 9.7 5.3
8500 6.9 44.4 265 5 2 9.9 5.4 | 7.8 46.0 275 5 2 9.2 5.1
8250 7.6 45.7 270 5 2 8.9 4.9 | 9.1 48.4 290 5 3 7.7 4.2
8000 8.8 47.8 285 5 2 10.0 5.5 | 9.7 49.5 295 5 3 8.6 4.7
7750 9.7 49.5 285 5 2 11.9 6.5 | 10.3 50.5 295 5 3 9.5 5.2
7500 10.5 50.9 280 5 2 9.2 5.1 | 11.0 51.8 295 5 3 8.3 4.6
7250 11.1 52.0 290 5 2 6.7 3.7 | 11.6 52.9 300 6 3 7.2 3.9
7000 11.7 53.1 295 5 3 10.4 5.7 | 12.2 54.0 305 6 3 9.4 5.1
6750 12.6 54.7 290 5 2 12.7 6.9 | 13.0 55.4 300 6 3 10.9 6.0
6500 13.4 56.1 290 5 2 10.5 5.8 | 13.8 56.8 300 6 3 9.9 5.4
6250 14.2 57.6 295 5 3 10.2 5.6 | 14.5 58.1 305 6 3 10.0 5.5
6000 14.9 58.8 305 5 3 8.7 4.8 | 15.2 59.4 310 6 3 8.5 4.7
5750 15.6 60.1 290 5 2 13.2 7.3 | 15.8 60.4 300 5 3 8.0 4.4
5500 18.1 64.6 305 5 3 65.8 36.1 | 16.9 62.4 310 6 3 29.5 16.2
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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