Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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450
UXUS97 KGJT 161306
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
706 AM MDT Monday, June 16, 2025

This forecast is for Monday, June 16, 2025:

If the trigger temperature of 89.2 F/31.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 2125 ft/min (10.8 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 25677 ft MSL (20838 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 99.0 F/37.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1115 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13205 ft MSL (8366 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 06/17...... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:47:40 / 20:42:18 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 54 min 39 sec (894 min 39 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:14:59 MDT... 73.94 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 06/16/2025 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16297 ft MSL (11458 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 24223 ft MSL (19384 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 24635 ft MSL (19796 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.3
K index......................... -3.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -65.0 -85.0   265   47   24   6.0   3.3   85.6 186.1    28.1      M    M
 45000  -57.8 -72.0   270   82   42   3.4   1.8   73.3 164.0    22.5      M    M
 40000  -53.0 -63.4   280   90   46   8.9   4.9   57.8 136.0    13.7      M    M
 38000  -48.3 -54.9   285   89   46   7.6   4.1   56.1 132.9    12.9      M    M
 36000  -45.1 -49.2   285   69   36   3.3   1.8   52.2 126.0    10.5      M    M
 34000  -41.9 -43.4   270   40   21   4.7   2.6   47.6 117.6     7.4      M    M
 32000  -36.9 -34.4   265   49   25   8.7   4.8   46.3 115.4     6.7      M    M
 30000  -32.2 -26.0   275   45   23   4.0   2.2   44.9 112.8     5.8      M    M
 29000  -30.8 -23.4   275   41   21   4.4   2.4   42.8 109.0     4.3      M    M
 28000  -29.4 -20.9   265   36   18   2.5   1.4   40.9 105.6     2.8      M    M
 27000  -28.2 -18.8   260   32   16   6.4   3.5   38.7 101.7     1.1      M    M
 26000  -26.2 -15.2   250   38   20   6.9   3.8   37.6  99.7     0.2      M    M
 25000  -23.6 -10.5   255   37   19   8.3   4.5   37.2  98.9    -0.2   2052 10.4
 24000  -21.0  -5.8   255   32   16   9.0   4.9   36.8  98.3    -0.4   1944  9.9
 23000  -18.3  -0.9   260   29   15   9.0   4.9   36.6  97.9    -0.6   1833  9.3
 22000  -15.6   3.9   245   24   13   9.0   4.9   36.3  97.4    -0.8   1722  8.7
 21000  -12.9   8.8   240   22   12   9.2   5.1   36.0  96.8    -1.1   1611  8.2
 20000  -10.6  12.9   225   24   12   8.1   4.4   35.3  95.5    -1.8   1513  7.7
 19500   -9.1  15.6   220   24   12  10.9   6.0   35.3  95.6    -1.8   1454  7.4
 19000   -7.6  18.3   225   24   12   9.3   5.1   35.4  95.7    -1.8   1394  7.1
 18500   -5.5  22.1   230   20   10   9.6   5.3   35.3  95.5    -1.8   1308  6.6
 18000   -4.2  24.4   245   18    9   7.8   4.3   35.1  95.2    -2.0   1255  6.4
 17500   -3.1  26.4   245   18    9   8.1   4.4   34.8  94.6    -2.4   1206  6.1
 17000   -1.7  28.9   245   20   10   9.6   5.3   34.7  94.4    -2.5   1152  5.9
 16500   -0.3  31.5   245   21   11   9.5   5.2   34.6  94.4    -2.5   1094  5.6
 16000    1.1  34.0   250   22   11   9.5   5.2   34.6  94.3    -2.6   1037  5.3
 15500    2.5  36.5   250   23   12   9.5   5.2   34.6  94.2    -2.6    980  5.0
 15000    3.9  39.0   250   22   11   9.5   5.2   34.5  94.2    -2.7    922  4.7
 14500    5.4  41.7   255   19   10   9.5   5.2   34.5  94.0    -2.8    865  4.4
 14000    6.8  44.2   260   16    8   9.4   5.2   34.4  93.9    -2.8    807  4.1
 13500    8.2  46.8   270   17    9   8.9   4.9   34.3  93.8    -2.9    750  3.8
 13000    9.5  49.1   265   19   10   8.4   4.6   34.1  93.4    -3.1    698  3.5
 12500   10.7  51.3   270   18    9   8.3   4.6   33.9  93.0    -3.3    645  3.3
 12000   12.0  53.6   265   18    9   8.3   4.6   33.7  92.7    -3.5    593  3.0
 11500   13.2  55.8   270   20   10   8.3   4.6   33.5  92.2    -3.8    541  2.7
 11000   14.5  58.1   260   19   10   8.3   4.6   33.2  91.8    -4.0    488  2.5
 10500   15.7  60.3   260   19   10   8.4   4.6   33.0  91.4    -4.2    436  2.2
 10250   16.3  61.3   260   19   10   8.0   4.4   32.9  91.2    -4.4    410  2.1
 10000   16.9  62.4   260   19   10   7.8   4.3   32.7  90.9    -4.5    385  2.0
  9750   17.5  63.5   260   16    8   7.9   4.3   32.6  90.6    -4.7    360  1.8
  9500   18.1  64.6   255   13    7   7.9   4.3   32.4  90.4    -4.8    334  1.7
  9250   18.7  65.7   255   11    6   7.9   4.3   32.3  90.1    -5.0    309  1.6
  9000   19.3  66.7   260    8    4   7.9   4.3   32.1  89.9    -5.1    284  1.4
  8750   19.9  67.8   260    8    4   7.9   4.3   32.0  89.6    -5.3    259  1.3
  8500   20.5  68.9   255    9    4   8.0   4.4   31.8  89.3    -5.4    234  1.2
  8250   21.1  70.0   250    9    4   8.2   4.5   31.7  89.1    -5.5    208  1.1
  8000   21.7  71.1   260    8    4   8.2   4.5   31.6  88.9    -5.7    182  0.9
  7750   22.3  72.1   250    7    4   8.2   4.5   31.5  88.7    -5.8    157  0.8
  7500   22.9  73.2   205    6    3   8.2   4.5   31.4  88.5    -5.9    131  0.7
  7250   23.5  74.3   180    8    4   8.2   4.5   31.2  88.2    -6.1    105  0.5
  7000   24.1  75.4   165   11    6   8.3   4.5   31.1  88.0    -6.2     80  0.4
  6750   24.8  76.6   165   13    7   9.9   5.4   31.1  87.9    -6.3     53  0.3
  6500   25.4  77.7   155   14    7   4.3   2.4   31.0  87.7    -6.5     27  0.1
  6250   25.2  77.4   150   15    8  -8.6  -4.7   30.0  86.1    -7.4     26  0.1
  6000   24.3  75.7   145   15    8 -12.9  -7.1   28.4  83.1    -9.1     47  0.2
  5750   23.3  73.9   145   16    8 -11.7  -6.4   26.7  80.1   -10.8     68  0.3
  5500   22.4  72.3   140   18    9 -12.0  -6.6   25.1  77.1   -12.5     89  0.5
  5250   21.4  70.5   130   16    8 -11.8  -6.5   23.4  74.2   -14.2    110  0.6
  5000   20.5  68.9   125   14    7 -11.9  -6.6   21.8  71.3   -15.9    130  0.7

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           06/16/2025 at 0900 MDT          |       06/16/2025 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +1.6        | CAPE...    +0.1    LI...       +1.2
CINH...    -0.1    K Index...  +0.2        | CINH...    -0.4    K Index...  -0.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -62.9 -81.2  265  51 26   3.1   1.7 | -63.3 -81.9  260  52 27   3.3   1.8
 45000 -58.1 -72.6  270  74 38   2.9   1.6 | -58.2 -72.8  265  74 38   2.9   1.6
 40000 -53.3 -63.9  280  90 47   6.8   3.7 | -53.4 -64.1  275  87 45   6.5   3.6
 38000 -49.4 -56.9  280  85 44   6.6   3.6 | -49.5 -57.1  275  84 43   6.6   3.6
 36000 -45.4 -49.7  280  79 41   6.6   3.6 | -45.5 -49.9  275  80 41   6.6   3.6
 34000 -41.0 -41.8  275  65 34   6.5   3.5 | -41.3 -42.3  275  72 37   7.1   3.9
 32000 -37.2 -35.0  270  52 27   6.4   3.5 | -37.0 -34.6  275  62 32   7.1   3.9
 30000 -33.2 -27.8  270  43 22   6.6   3.6 | -33.1 -27.6  270  52 27   6.4   3.5
 29000 -31.3 -24.3  270  40 20   6.6   3.6 | -31.1 -24.0  270  46 24   6.4   3.5
 28000 -29.3 -20.7  265  36 18   6.3   3.4 | -29.2 -20.6  265  41 21   6.4   3.5
 27000 -27.6 -17.7  265  33 17   5.9   3.2 | -26.9 -16.4  260  36 19   6.2   3.4
 26000 -25.8 -14.4  260  31 16   5.9   3.2 | -25.0 -13.0  260  33 17   6.2   3.4
 25000 -24.1 -11.4  260  29 15   5.5   3.0 | -23.2  -9.8  255  29 15   6.6   3.6
 24000 -21.7  -7.1  255  28 15   8.6   4.7 | -20.9  -5.6  255  28 14   7.7   4.2
 23000 -19.2  -2.6  250  28 15   8.6   4.7 | -18.6  -1.5  255  28 14   7.7   4.2
 22000 -16.6   2.1  245  29 15   8.6   4.7 | -16.3   2.7  250  27 14   8.3   4.5
 21000 -13.3   8.1  245  27 14   9.0   4.9 | -13.7   7.3  250  27 14   8.8   4.8
 20000 -10.6  12.9  245  26 13   9.0   4.9 | -11.1  12.0  250  26 14   8.8   4.8
 19500  -9.2  15.4  240  25 13   8.9   4.9 |  -9.7  14.5  255  26 13   8.8   4.8
 19000  -8.0  17.6  240  24 12   8.5   4.7 |  -8.4  16.9  255  26 13   8.9   4.9
 18500  -6.7  19.9  240  23 12   8.5   4.7 |  -7.1  19.2  255  25 13   8.9   4.9
 18000  -5.4  22.3  240  22 11   8.7   4.8 |  -5.7  21.7  255  24 12   9.0   4.9
 17500  -4.1  24.6  240  21 11   8.7   4.8 |  -4.4  24.1  250  23 12   9.0   4.9
 17000  -2.8  27.0  240  19 10   8.8   4.8 |  -3.0  26.6  250  22 11   9.0   4.9
 16500  -1.5  29.3  240  18  9   9.0   4.9 |  -1.7  28.9  250  21 11   8.9   4.9
 16000  -0.2  31.6  240  17  9   9.0   5.0 |  -0.4  31.3  250  20 10   8.9   4.9
 15500   1.1  34.0  240  16  8   8.9   4.9 |   1.0  33.8  250  19 10   9.2   5.0
 15000   2.5  36.5  245  15  8   8.9   4.9 |   2.4  36.3  245  19 10   9.2   5.0
 14500   3.8  38.8  245  14  7   9.2   5.1 |   3.7  38.7  245  18  9   9.2   5.0
 14000   5.2  41.4  250  13  7   9.3   5.1 |   5.1  41.2  245  17  9   9.2   5.0
 13500   6.6  43.9  255  13  7   9.2   5.1 |   6.5  43.7  245  16  8   9.2   5.0
 13000   7.9  46.2  255  13  6   9.0   5.0 |   7.8  46.0  245  16  8   9.2   5.0
 12500   9.3  48.7  260  12  6   9.0   5.0 |   9.2  48.6  245  15  8   9.2   5.0
 12000  10.6  51.1  260  12  6   9.0   5.0 |  10.6  51.1  245  14  7   9.3   5.1
 11500  12.0  53.6  260  12  6   9.0   4.9 |  12.0  53.6  245  14  7   9.3   5.1
 11000  13.3  55.9  260  12  6   8.3   4.6 |  13.2  55.8  245  13  7   7.9   4.3
 10500  14.5  58.1  260  12  6   6.7   3.7 |  14.4  57.9  250  13  7  11.4   6.3
 10250  15.0  59.0  260  12  6   6.7   3.7 |  15.4  59.7  245  12  6  12.3   6.8
 10000  15.6  60.1  255  12  6   9.0   4.9 |  16.1  61.0  245  12  6   8.3   4.6
  9750  16.2  61.2  255  11  6   8.4   4.6 |  16.8  62.2  245  12  6   9.5   5.2
  9500  16.8  62.2  255  11  6   8.5   4.6 |  17.5  63.5  245  11  6   8.8   4.8
  9250  17.4  63.3  255  11  6   7.2   4.0 |  18.6  65.5  250  10  5   8.5   4.6
  9000  17.9  64.2  250  11  6   6.3   3.4 |  19.3  66.7  250  10  5  10.4   5.7
  8750  18.4  65.1  250  10  5   6.4   3.5 |  20.1  68.2  245   9  5   9.7   5.3
  8500  18.9  66.0  245   9  5   6.1   3.3 |  20.7  69.3  245   9  4   7.2   4.0
  8250  19.3  66.7  240   9  4   4.5   2.5 |  21.2  70.2  250   7  4   8.2   4.5
  8000  20.0  68.0  235   7  4   5.9   3.2 |  22.0  71.6  250   7  4  11.1   6.1
  7750  20.4  68.7  220   6  3   4.9   2.7 |  22.8  73.0  245   7  4   9.8   5.4
  7500  20.7  69.3  210   6  3   3.0   1.7 |  23.4  74.1  250   6  3   7.9   4.3
  7250  20.9  69.6  205   5  3   3.7   2.0 |  24.0  75.2  255   6  3   8.4   4.6
  7000  21.3  70.3  195   5  3   8.6   4.7 |  24.8  76.6  255   5  3  12.3   6.8
  6750  22.0  71.6  180   5  3   8.1   4.4 |  25.8  78.4  250   6  3  11.9   6.5
  6500  22.4  72.3  170   5  2   5.3   2.9 |  26.5  79.7  250   5  3   9.9   5.4
  6250  22.8  73.0  155   4  2   5.5   3.0 |  27.3  81.1  260   5  2   9.7   5.3
  6000  23.3  73.9  145   4  2   9.1   5.0 |  28.0  82.4  260   4  2  11.4   6.3
  5750  24.3  75.7  150   4  2  18.8  10.3 |  29.2  84.6  250   5  2  22.4  12.3
  5500  25.6  78.1  135   4  2  10.7   5.9 |  31.6  88.9  270   4  2  44.0  24.1
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           06/16/2025 at 1500 MDT          |       06/16/2025 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...    +0.5    LI...       -0.1        | CAPE...    +0.3    LI...       -0.3
CINH...    -0.1    K Index...  +0.2        | CINH...    -0.1    K Index...  +1.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -63.6 -82.5  255  54 28   2.8   1.5 | -63.1 -81.6  255  57 30   2.1   1.2
 45000 -59.3 -74.7  260  77 40   3.2   1.8 | -59.8 -75.6  260  81 42   2.6   1.4
 40000 -53.7 -64.7  275  92 48   6.4   3.5 | -55.1 -67.2  270  92 47   7.0   3.9
 38000 -49.8 -57.6  275  90 46   6.5   3.6 | -50.9 -59.6  270  89 46   7.0   3.8
 36000 -45.9 -50.6  275  88 45   6.5   3.5 | -46.7 -52.1  265  86 44   7.0   3.8
 34000 -41.5 -42.7  275  80 41   7.5   4.1 | -42.2 -44.0  270  79 41   7.6   4.2
 32000 -37.0 -34.6  275  71 37   7.4   4.1 | -37.6 -35.7  270  72 37   7.6   4.2
 30000 -33.0 -27.4  275  58 30   6.4   3.5 | -33.7 -28.7  270  57 29   6.2   3.4
 29000 -31.1 -24.0  270  51 26   6.4   3.5 | -31.8 -25.2  265  49 25   6.2   3.4
 28000 -29.2 -20.6  270  43 22   6.3   3.5 | -30.0 -22.0  265  40 21   6.3   3.5
 27000 -27.4 -17.3  265  39 20   6.1   3.4 | -28.0 -18.4  260  36 18   7.0   3.8
 26000 -25.1 -13.2  265  35 18   6.2   3.4 | -25.9 -14.6  255  32 16   7.0   3.9
 25000 -23.3  -9.9  260  32 16   6.8   3.7 | -23.3  -9.9  250  27 14   7.5   4.1
 24000 -20.9  -5.6  260  30 15   8.0   4.4 | -20.8  -5.4  245  26 13   8.3   4.5
 23000 -18.5  -1.3  255  28 15   8.0   4.4 | -18.4  -1.1  245  24 13   8.3   4.5
 22000 -16.1   3.0  255  27 14   8.6   4.7 | -15.9   3.4  240  23 12   8.9   4.9
 21000 -13.4   7.9  250  25 13   9.1   5.0 | -13.1   8.4  235  23 12   9.5   5.2
 20000 -10.7  12.7  250  24 12   9.1   5.0 | -10.2  13.6  235  22 11   9.5   5.2
 19500  -9.3  15.3  250  23 12   9.1   5.0 |  -8.8  16.2  235  22 11   9.5   5.2
 19000  -7.9  17.8  250  23 12   9.4   5.2 |  -7.3  18.9  235  22 11   9.6   5.3
 18500  -6.5  20.3  245  22 12   9.4   5.2 |  -5.9  21.4  235  22 11   9.6   5.3
 18000  -5.1  22.8  245  22 11   9.4   5.2 |  -4.4  24.1  240  22 11   9.6   5.3
 17500  -3.7  25.3  245  21 11   9.5   5.2 |  -3.0  26.6  240  21 11   9.6   5.2
 17000  -2.3  27.9  245  21 11   9.5   5.2 |  -1.6  29.1  240  21 11   9.6   5.2
 16500  -0.9  30.4  245  21 11   9.5   5.2 |  -0.1  31.8  240  21 11   9.6   5.3
 16000   0.6  33.1  245  21 11   9.5   5.2 |   1.3  34.3  240  21 11   9.6   5.3
 15500   2.0  35.6  245  20 10   9.5   5.2 |   2.8  37.0  240  21 11   9.7   5.3
 15000   3.4  38.1  245  20 10   9.5   5.2 |   4.2  39.6  240  21 11   9.7   5.3
 14500   4.9  40.8  245  20 10   9.5   5.2 |   5.7  42.3  245  21 11   9.6   5.3
 14000   6.3  43.3  245  20 10   9.5   5.2 |   7.1  44.8  245  21 11   9.6   5.2
 13500   7.7  45.9  245  20 10   9.5   5.2 |   8.5  47.3  245  21 11   9.5   5.2
 13000   9.1  48.4  245  19 10   9.4   5.2 |  10.0  50.0  245  20 11   9.5   5.2
 12500  10.5  50.9  250  19 10   9.4   5.2 |  11.4  52.5  245  20 10   9.5   5.2
 12000  12.0  53.6  250  19 10   9.6   5.3 |  12.8  55.0  245  20 10   9.7   5.3
 11500  13.4  56.1  250  18  9   9.6   5.3 |  14.3  57.7  250  20 10   9.9   5.4
 11000  14.7  58.5  250  17  9   7.9   4.4 |  15.6  60.1  250  20 10   7.9   4.3
 10500  15.8  60.4  250  17  9  12.0   6.6 |  16.8  62.2  250  19 10  11.1   6.1
 10250  16.9  62.4  250  16  8  13.1   7.2 |  17.8  64.0  250  19 10  12.9   7.1
 10000  17.6  63.7  250  16  8   8.4   4.6 |  18.6  65.5  250  19 10   9.3   5.1
  9750  18.3  64.9  250  16  8   9.7   5.3 |  19.3  66.7  250  19 10   9.3   5.1
  9500  19.1  66.4  250  15  8   9.2   5.0 |  20.0  68.0  250  19 10   9.6   5.3
  9250  19.7  67.5  255  15  8   8.1   4.4 |  20.7  69.3  250  18 10   8.4   4.6
  9000  20.3  68.5  255  15  8   9.4   5.2 |  21.3  70.3  250  18  9   8.8   4.8
  8750  21.9  71.4  255  14  7  10.6   5.8 |  22.0  71.6  250  18  9  10.2   5.6
  8500  22.7  72.9  255  14  7   9.2   5.1 |  23.5  74.3  250  17  9   9.3   5.1
  8250  23.3  73.9  255  14  7   9.5   5.2 |  24.2  75.6  255  17  9   9.5   5.2
  8000  24.1  75.4  255  14  7  11.1   6.1 |  24.9  76.8  255  17  9  10.4   5.7
  7750  24.9  76.8  255  14  7  10.4   5.7 |  25.7  78.3  255  17  9  10.4   5.7
  7500  25.7  78.3  255  14  7   8.7   4.8 |  26.4  79.5  255  16  8   8.5   4.7
  7250  26.3  79.3  260  14  7   8.8   4.8 |  27.0  80.6  255  17  9   8.1   4.4
  7000  27.0  80.6  260  14  7  11.2   6.2 |  27.7  81.9  255  16  8  10.6   5.8
  6750  27.9  82.2  260  13  7  11.5   6.3 |  28.5  83.3  255  16  8  11.1   6.1
  6500  28.7  83.7  260  13  7  10.7   5.9 |  29.4  84.9  255  15  8  10.5   5.8
  6250  29.5  85.1  260  13  7  10.9   6.0 |  30.1  86.2  255  15  8  10.8   5.9
  6000  30.3  86.5  260  13  6   8.9   4.9 |  30.9  87.6  255  15  8   8.0   4.4
  5750  31.1  88.0  260  11  6  16.0   8.8 |  31.5  88.7  255  14  7   9.7   5.3
  5500  34.1  93.4  265  11  6  80.2  44.0 |  33.4  92.1  255  12  6  56.8  31.2
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613