Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
568
UXUS97 KGJT 111306
SRGGJT
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
606 AM MST Tuesday, November 11, 2025
This forecast is for Tuesday, November 11, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 64.7 F/18.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 299 ft/min (1.5 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 9738 ft MSL (4131 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 65.0 F/18.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1500 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7743 ft MSL (2136 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 11/12.... Fair
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:53:29 / 17:02:52 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 9 min 23 sec (609 min 23 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:58:10 MST... 33.24 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 11/11/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 13147 ft MSL (7540 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20932 ft MSL (15325 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16207 ft MSL (10600 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +8.6
K index......................... -5.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.9 -90.2 295 47 24 0.9 0.5 M M M M M
45000 -65.4 -85.7 295 53 27 5.0 2.7 M M M M M
40000 -58.0 -72.4 295 61 31 5.7 3.1 M M M M M
38000 -53.8 -64.8 290 59 30 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
36000 -49.7 -57.5 290 56 29 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
34000 -45.3 -49.5 285 51 26 7.6 4.2 M M M M M
32000 -40.2 -40.4 275 44 22 7.6 4.2 M M M M M
30000 -35.2 -31.4 275 39 20 8.7 4.8 40.0 104.0 16.4 M M
29000 -32.7 -26.9 275 38 19 8.7 4.8 39.6 103.3 16.3 M M
28000 -30.1 -22.2 275 36 19 9.0 4.9 39.3 102.8 16.2 M M
27000 -28.0 -18.4 270 34 18 6.1 3.3 38.1 100.6 15.5 M M
26000 -26.2 -15.2 265 33 17 6.1 3.3 36.7 98.0 14.5 M M
25000 -24.4 -11.9 260 32 16 6.1 3.4 35.4 95.7 13.6 M M
24000 -22.4 -8.3 255 31 16 7.4 4.1 34.3 93.8 12.9 M M
23000 -20.1 -4.2 255 29 15 7.5 4.1 33.4 92.2 12.4 M M
22000 -17.8 -0.0 255 28 14 7.5 4.1 32.7 90.8 11.9 M M
21000 -15.7 3.7 255 26 13 6.8 3.7 31.7 89.1 11.2 M M
20000 -13.7 7.3 255 24 12 6.7 3.7 30.6 87.1 10.4 M M
19500 -12.7 9.1 260 23 12 6.8 3.7 30.1 86.2 10.0 M M
19000 -11.7 10.9 260 23 12 6.8 3.7 29.7 85.4 9.7 M M
18500 -10.2 13.6 260 22 11 6.9 3.8 28.9 84.0 9.1 M M
18000 -9.1 15.6 260 21 11 7.0 3.8 28.4 83.2 8.7 M M
17500 -8.1 17.4 265 21 11 7.0 3.8 28.0 82.3 8.4 M M
17000 -7.0 19.4 265 21 11 7.1 3.9 27.5 81.5 8.0 M M
16500 -6.0 21.2 265 20 10 6.3 3.5 27.0 80.6 7.6 M M
16000 -5.1 22.8 265 20 10 6.3 3.5 26.4 79.5 7.1 M M
15500 -4.2 24.4 270 20 10 6.2 3.4 25.9 78.5 6.6 M M
15000 -3.3 26.1 270 19 10 6.1 3.4 25.2 77.4 6.1 M M
14500 -2.3 27.9 270 19 10 6.1 3.3 24.7 76.4 5.6 M M
14000 -1.5 29.3 270 18 9 6.0 3.3 24.0 75.3 5.0 M M
13500 -0.6 30.9 270 17 9 6.0 3.3 23.4 74.2 4.5 M M
13000 0.3 32.5 270 17 9 6.0 3.3 22.8 73.0 3.9 M M
12500 1.2 34.2 270 16 8 6.1 3.3 22.2 72.0 3.4 M M
12000 2.0 35.6 265 15 8 5.5 3.0 21.6 70.8 2.8 M M
11500 2.8 37.0 265 14 7 5.6 3.0 20.9 69.6 2.1 M M
11000 3.6 38.5 260 13 7 5.8 3.2 20.2 68.4 1.5 M M
10500 4.5 40.1 255 12 6 6.6 3.6 19.6 67.3 0.9 M M
10250 5.0 41.0 250 11 5 6.7 3.7 19.4 66.9 0.7 M M
10000 5.4 41.7 250 10 5 5.7 3.1 19.1 66.4 0.4 M M
9750 5.9 42.6 245 9 5 6.0 3.3 18.8 65.8 0.1 M M
9500 6.3 43.3 240 8 4 5.8 3.2 18.5 65.3 -0.2 283 1.4
9250 6.7 44.1 235 7 4 5.4 2.9 18.2 64.7 -0.6 263 1.3
9000 7.1 44.8 225 7 3 5.3 2.9 17.8 64.1 -0.9 244 1.2
8750 7.5 45.5 220 6 3 5.5 3.0 17.5 63.5 -1.2 225 1.1
8500 7.9 46.2 205 5 3 5.0 2.8 17.2 62.9 -1.6 206 1.0
8250 8.2 46.8 195 5 3 4.1 2.3 16.8 62.2 -2.0 188 1.0
8000 8.5 47.3 180 5 3 3.9 2.1 16.3 61.4 -2.4 172 0.9
7750 8.8 47.8 175 5 3 3.9 2.2 15.9 60.6 -2.9 156 0.8
7500 9.1 48.4 165 6 3 4.0 2.2 15.4 59.8 -3.3 140 0.7
7250 9.4 48.9 160 6 3 4.0 2.2 15.0 59.0 -3.7 123 0.6
7000 9.7 49.5 155 7 4 4.1 2.3 14.6 58.2 -4.2 107 0.5
6750 9.9 49.8 155 7 4 2.0 1.1 14.1 57.4 -4.7 92 0.5
6500 9.9 49.8 150 7 3 -2.6 -1.4 13.3 56.0 -5.4 85 0.4
6250 9.5 49.1 140 6 3 -8.1 -4.4 12.2 53.9 -6.6 90 0.5
6000 9.2 48.6 125 6 3 4.6 2.5 11.1 52.0 -7.7 93 0.5
5750 9.8 49.6 120 5 3 1.6 0.9 11.0 51.9 -7.8 66 0.3
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
11/11/2025 at 0800 MST | 11/11/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.6
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +0.2 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... -0.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.3 -89.1 295 43 22 0.1 0.1 | -66.7 -88.1 295 45 23 0.7 0.4
45000 -66.4 -87.5 285 46 23 3.9 2.1 | -65.1 -85.2 290 51 26 3.3 1.8
40000 -60.2 -76.4 285 45 23 6.1 3.4 | -59.8 -75.6 280 47 24 5.0 2.8
38000 -55.3 -67.5 285 45 23 8.1 4.4 | -55.5 -67.9 285 46 24 7.0 3.9
36000 -50.4 -58.7 290 44 23 8.1 4.4 | -51.3 -60.3 285 45 23 7.0 3.9
34000 -46.0 -50.8 290 44 23 7.1 3.9 | -46.8 -52.2 285 44 23 7.8 4.3
32000 -41.7 -43.1 295 45 23 7.1 3.9 | -42.2 -44.0 290 43 22 7.8 4.3
30000 -37.2 -35.0 295 44 23 7.7 4.2 | -37.4 -35.3 295 42 21 8.0 4.4
29000 -35.0 -31.0 295 44 22 7.7 4.2 | -35.0 -31.0 295 41 21 8.0 4.4
28000 -32.7 -26.9 295 43 22 7.7 4.2 | -32.6 -26.7 295 40 21 8.1 4.4
27000 -30.4 -22.7 295 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -30.3 -22.5 295 40 20 7.5 4.1
26000 -28.1 -18.6 295 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -28.1 -18.6 295 40 20 7.5 4.1
25000 -25.8 -14.4 295 40 20 7.7 4.2 | -25.9 -14.6 295 39 20 7.5 4.1
24000 -22.9 -9.2 295 38 20 7.8 4.3 | -23.0 -9.4 295 38 20 7.8 4.3
23000 -20.5 -4.9 295 38 19 7.8 4.3 | -20.7 -5.3 295 37 19 7.8 4.3
22000 -18.2 -0.8 300 37 19 7.8 4.3 | -18.3 -0.9 300 36 18 7.8 4.3
21000 -16.0 3.2 300 36 19 7.2 4.0 | -16.1 3.0 300 35 18 7.5 4.1
20000 -13.8 7.2 300 36 18 7.3 4.0 | -13.8 7.2 300 33 17 7.5 4.1
19500 -12.8 9.0 305 35 18 7.3 4.0 | -12.7 9.1 305 33 17 7.5 4.1
19000 -11.7 10.9 305 35 18 7.1 3.9 | -11.6 11.1 305 32 16 6.9 3.8
18500 -10.6 12.9 305 34 17 7.1 3.9 | -10.6 12.9 305 31 16 6.7 3.7
18000 -9.6 14.7 305 33 17 7.0 3.8 | -9.6 14.7 305 30 16 6.6 3.6
17500 -8.6 16.5 305 31 16 6.6 3.6 | -8.7 16.3 305 29 15 6.2 3.4
17000 -7.6 18.3 305 30 16 6.7 3.7 | -7.7 18.1 305 28 15 6.2 3.4
16500 -6.6 20.1 305 29 15 6.5 3.5 | -6.8 19.8 305 27 14 6.2 3.4
16000 -5.7 21.7 305 27 14 6.4 3.5 | -5.9 21.4 305 26 13 6.2 3.4
15500 -4.7 23.5 310 26 13 6.3 3.5 | -4.9 23.2 305 25 13 6.2 3.4
15000 -3.8 25.2 310 25 13 6.3 3.4 | -4.0 24.8 305 23 12 6.1 3.3
14500 -2.9 26.8 310 23 12 6.3 3.4 | -3.2 26.2 305 22 11 6.1 3.3
14000 -2.0 28.4 310 22 12 6.4 3.5 | -2.3 27.9 305 21 11 6.1 3.3
13500 -1.0 30.2 310 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -1.4 29.5 305 19 10 6.1 3.3
13000 -0.1 31.8 310 21 11 6.2 3.4 | -0.5 31.1 305 18 9 6.0 3.3
12500 0.8 33.4 310 20 10 6.3 3.4 | 0.4 32.7 305 17 9 6.0 3.3
12000 1.8 35.2 310 19 10 6.2 3.4 | 1.2 34.2 305 16 8 5.9 3.3
11500 2.7 36.9 310 18 9 6.4 3.5 | 2.1 35.8 310 15 7 6.0 3.3
11000 3.5 38.3 305 16 8 5.1 2.8 | 3.0 37.4 310 13 7 5.9 3.2
10500 4.3 39.7 305 15 8 5.6 3.1 | 3.9 39.0 310 12 6 6.2 3.4
10250 4.7 40.5 305 14 7 3.4 1.9 | 4.3 39.7 310 11 6 4.1 2.3
10000 4.9 40.8 305 14 7 2.8 1.5 | 4.5 40.1 310 10 5 3.9 2.1
9750 5.2 41.4 300 13 6 4.4 2.4 | 4.9 40.8 305 9 5 5.5 3.0
9500 5.5 41.9 295 11 6 3.9 2.2 | 5.3 41.5 305 8 4 5.0 2.8
9250 5.7 42.3 295 10 5 2.1 1.1 | 5.7 42.3 300 7 4 4.2 2.3
9000 5.8 42.4 290 10 5 1.6 0.9 | 5.9 42.6 295 6 3 3.8 2.1
8750 6.0 42.8 285 9 4 3.5 1.9 | 6.3 43.3 290 5 3 4.5 2.5
8500 6.5 43.7 275 7 3 2.8 1.6 | 6.6 43.9 285 4 2 4.2 2.3
8250 6.7 44.1 270 6 3 2.6 1.4 | 7.2 45.0 275 3 2 3.4 1.9
8000 6.9 44.4 265 5 3 3.7 2.0 | 7.4 45.3 265 3 2 4.5 2.5
7750 7.2 45.0 255 4 2 3.1 1.7 | 7.8 46.0 255 2 1 3.7 2.0
7500 7.4 45.3 245 3 2 1.9 1.0 | 8.0 46.4 240 2 1 2.6 1.4
7250 7.5 45.5 225 2 1 1.8 1.0 | 8.2 46.8 220 2 1 2.2 1.2
7000 7.7 45.9 200 2 1 3.5 1.9 | 8.5 47.3 195 2 1 8.4 4.6
6750 8.0 46.4 180 2 1 3.5 1.9 | 9.3 48.7 190 1 1 10.2 5.6
6500 8.2 46.8 160 2 1 2.1 1.2 | 9.9 49.8 185 1 1 7.9 4.3
6250 8.3 46.9 135 2 1 1.5 0.8 | 10.4 50.7 185 1 1 4.1 2.2
6000 8.1 46.6 125 3 1 -11.6 -6.4 | 10.6 51.1 175 1 1 6.5 3.5
5750 6.5 43.7 105 3 1 -28.6 -15.7 | 11.8 53.2 175 1 1 25.2 13.8
5500 5.0 41.0 085 3 2 3.7 2.0 | 13.0 55.4 170 1 1 -12.6 -6.9
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
11/11/2025 at 1400 MST | 11/11/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.4
CINH... -0.1 K Index... +1.5 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +2.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.1 -87.0 295 46 24 0.6 0.3 | -66.3 -87.3 300 52 27 0.7 0.4
45000 -64.9 -84.8 295 55 29 2.7 1.5 | -64.9 -84.8 300 68 35 2.3 1.2
40000 -60.5 -76.9 295 59 30 4.4 2.4 | -61.5 -78.7 300 71 37 1.7 0.9
38000 -56.2 -69.2 295 56 29 7.3 4.0 | -56.6 -69.9 305 67 34 8.0 4.4
36000 -51.9 -61.4 295 52 27 7.3 4.0 | -51.8 -61.2 305 62 32 8.0 4.4
34000 -47.2 -53.0 295 49 25 8.0 4.4 | -47.1 -52.8 305 56 29 7.9 4.3
32000 -42.4 -44.3 295 46 24 8.0 4.4 | -42.3 -44.1 305 48 25 7.9 4.3
30000 -37.6 -35.7 295 43 22 8.1 4.4 | -37.6 -35.7 300 43 22 8.0 4.4
29000 -35.1 -31.2 295 42 22 8.1 4.4 | -35.2 -31.4 300 42 21 8.0 4.4
28000 -32.7 -26.9 295 42 21 8.1 4.5 | -32.8 -27.0 300 40 21 8.0 4.4
27000 -30.4 -22.7 295 41 21 7.4 4.1 | -30.5 -22.9 300 39 20 7.6 4.2
26000 -28.2 -18.8 295 40 20 7.4 4.1 | -28.2 -18.8 300 38 20 7.6 4.2
25000 -26.0 -14.8 295 39 20 7.4 4.1 | -26.0 -14.8 300 37 19 7.6 4.2
24000 -23.3 -9.9 295 37 19 7.4 4.1 | -23.1 -9.6 300 36 19 7.6 4.1
23000 -21.1 -6.0 295 36 18 7.4 4.1 | -20.9 -5.6 305 36 18 7.6 4.2
22000 -18.9 -2.0 300 34 18 7.4 4.0 | -18.6 -1.5 305 35 18 7.5 4.1
21000 -16.6 2.1 300 33 17 7.8 4.3 | -16.3 2.7 305 33 17 7.9 4.3
20000 -14.2 6.4 305 32 16 7.8 4.3 | -14.0 6.8 305 32 16 7.9 4.3
19500 -13.1 8.4 305 31 16 7.9 4.3 | -12.8 9.0 305 31 16 7.9 4.3
19000 -11.9 10.6 305 30 16 7.6 4.2 | -11.7 10.9 310 30 15 7.9 4.3
18500 -10.8 12.6 310 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -10.5 13.1 310 29 15 7.9 4.3
18000 -9.7 14.5 310 29 15 7.4 4.1 | -9.3 15.3 310 28 14 7.8 4.3
17500 -8.6 16.5 310 28 14 6.8 3.7 | -8.2 17.2 310 27 14 6.9 3.8
17000 -7.6 18.3 310 26 14 6.8 3.8 | -7.2 19.0 310 26 13 7.0 3.8
16500 -6.6 20.1 310 25 13 6.5 3.6 | -6.2 20.8 310 24 13 6.7 3.6
16000 -5.6 21.9 310 24 12 6.4 3.5 | -5.2 22.6 310 23 12 6.6 3.6
15500 -4.6 23.7 310 23 12 6.4 3.5 | -4.2 24.4 310 21 11 6.3 3.5
15000 -3.7 25.3 310 21 11 6.3 3.4 | -3.3 26.1 310 20 10 6.0 3.3
14500 -2.7 27.1 310 20 10 6.2 3.4 | -2.4 27.7 310 18 9 6.0 3.3
14000 -1.8 28.8 310 19 10 6.1 3.3 | -1.5 29.3 305 17 9 5.9 3.2
13500 -0.9 30.4 305 18 9 6.1 3.3 | -0.6 30.9 305 15 8 5.9 3.3
13000 -0.0 32.0 305 17 9 6.2 3.4 | 0.3 32.5 300 14 7 5.7 3.1
12500 0.9 33.6 305 16 8 6.2 3.4 | 1.1 34.0 295 13 7 5.7 3.1
12000 1.8 35.2 300 15 8 6.2 3.4 | 2.0 35.6 295 12 6 5.9 3.2
11500 2.6 36.7 300 13 7 6.2 3.4 | 2.8 37.0 290 11 6 5.8 3.2
11000 3.5 38.3 295 12 6 6.1 3.4 | 3.7 38.7 285 10 5 6.7 3.7
10500 4.4 39.9 290 11 6 6.3 3.4 | 4.7 40.5 280 9 5 7.0 3.8
10250 4.9 40.8 290 10 5 5.6 3.1 | 5.2 41.4 275 9 4 5.4 3.0
10000 5.3 41.5 290 10 5 5.4 2.9 | 5.6 42.1 275 8 4 6.0 3.3
9750 5.7 42.3 285 9 5 5.8 3.2 | 6.1 43.0 270 8 4 8.0 4.4
9500 6.1 43.0 280 8 4 5.6 3.1 | 6.7 44.1 265 7 4 7.5 4.1
9250 6.5 43.7 275 7 4 6.1 3.4 | 7.2 45.0 260 7 3 7.3 4.0
9000 7.0 44.6 270 7 4 5.8 3.2 | 7.7 45.9 260 7 4 6.3 3.4
8750 7.4 45.3 265 6 3 5.0 2.8 | 8.2 46.8 260 6 3 5.8 3.2
8500 8.2 46.8 265 5 3 4.5 2.4 | 9.0 48.2 255 5 3 4.7 2.6
8250 8.5 47.3 260 5 2 4.7 2.6 | 9.3 48.7 255 5 3 4.3 2.4
8000 8.9 48.0 260 4 2 7.6 4.2 | 9.7 49.5 260 4 2 5.2 2.9
7750 9.5 49.1 265 3 2 6.5 3.6 | 10.1 50.2 260 4 2 4.9 2.7
7500 9.9 49.8 270 3 2 3.5 1.9 | 10.4 50.7 265 3 2 4.0 2.2
7250 10.1 50.2 275 3 2 3.4 1.9 | 10.7 51.3 270 3 1 3.9 2.1
7000 10.5 50.9 280 3 2 10.3 5.6 | 11.0 51.8 280 2 1 5.7 3.1
6750 11.5 52.7 285 3 1 11.5 6.3 | 11.5 52.7 295 2 1 7.0 3.8
6500 12.1 53.8 290 3 1 7.3 4.0 | 12.0 53.6 300 2 1 5.9 3.2
6250 12.7 54.9 295 3 2 7.8 4.3 | 12.5 54.5 305 3 1 7.7 4.2
6000 13.4 56.1 295 3 2 12.1 6.7 | 13.0 55.4 310 3 1 1.5 0.8
5750 14.6 58.3 295 3 1 21.7 11.9 | 12.5 54.5 305 2 1 -14.8 -8.1
5500 15.8 60.4 300 3 2 -1.8 -1.0 | 11.6 52.9 305 3 1 5.2 2.8
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613