464
FXUS63 KGLD 011954
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon and
  evening for the entire area. Supercells will be possible,
  capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and blowing
  dust, and perhaps a tornado.

- Storm chances continue through much of the week. Severe
  weather is possible Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Current satellite observations have a large upper low over the
Northwestern United States with ridging over the Southern United
States. The observations are also showing cumulus clouds forming
around and south of Highway 40 in NW Kansas. This area is our first
area of concern for storms this afternoon. While the earlier storms
did use up some of the instability, clearing skies and continued low
level moisture advection is allowing for decent recovery. With the
earlier outflow in the area, am expecting this area to have storms
develop around 1-3pm MT. This is just a bit faster than prior
forecasts, but not too much of a change. We are still expecting the
storms to develop and make their way to the east/northeast. The
environment is forecast to have plenty of shear with 0-6km shear
around 40-50 kts. With the shear and MUCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg,
we have plenty of support for storms to sustain themselves. This
does lead to a concern for supercells with hail potentially above 2
inches in diameter. Otherwise, storms that cluster fairly quickly
should have hail between 0.5-2.0" with wind gusts up to 70 mph. The
tornado threat is forecast to initially be low with LCLs above 1500
meters. But given a persistent enough storm, LCLs should lower with
0-1km shear around 10-20 kts. This could allow for a tornado to form.

A secondary line is forecast to form in Eastern Colorado closer to
the center of the low and along the Palmer Divide. These storms
should push steadily to the east northeast, mainly impacting along
and North of I70 (though all of Eastern Colorado has a chance). The
threats are fairly similar to the other storms as there isn`t
forecast to be much of a change in the environment.

As both clusters push east/northeast, they area forecast to move
into an environment with slightly less instability due to the early
cloud cover and outflow from the earlier storms. That being said,
there is more moisture forecast to be available. This may lead to
the chances for severe weather decreasing, but will also help a low
chance persist through the night as long as we have storms. This
will also lead to a concern for flash flooding as storms converge in
the northeast part of the area, and then potentially reignite along
outflows. The overall chance is around 20% or less as storms would
likely have to stall over an area. With downshear vectors around 40-
50 kts, this doesn`t see too likely. But clustering/training over an
area could lead to 2-4 inches of rain. Overnight storms chances
should generally favor NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. With the storms
and cloud cover, temperatures should generally stay in the 60s and
70s. Some fog may also occur in Eastern Colorado and adjacent
counties as long as storms stay to the east and allow for some
clearing and cooling.

For tomorrow, showers and storms could continue into the morning as
long as outflow boundaries remain in the area. But they should push
out of the area later in the morning as instability drops due to the
persistent storms and as the surface low pushes a bit more to the
west. The upper level ridge is also forecast to amplify a bit more
into the Plains as the upper trough shifts a bit more to the north.
While the precip chances may lower, the cloud cover is forecast to
be fairly thick for most of the day, which should keep temperatures
in the 70s and 80s.

As the day goes on, the upper trough axis to the northwest is
forecast to shift a bit eastward along with the surface low. This
may be just enough to get storms going again, though any prior
activity may stabilize the air too much. If it doesn`t, it looks
like storms should fire up along the Palmer Divide again and maybe
close to Greeley county if a surface convergence zone sets up. The
main difference for tomorrow is that the flow as a whole is forecast
to be weaker, leading to lower shear and lower wind gust potential.
This should lead to more clustering storms that may struggle to hold
together. The severe hazards should also be a little lower in
intensity, though an isolated storm may be able to still produce
very large hail and maybe a tornado. As storms progress east, the
instability is forecast to lower which should have most storms
dissipate or become showers. May still have storms linger through
the night in our eastern areas if they can keep forming on outflow
boundaries. Temperatures should remain in the 60s and 70s for most
of the night with the cloud cover and linger precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Wednesday, the upper trough that had been over the Western United
States is forecast to finally push east and move through the Plains.
It is forecast to move slow enough that the cloud cover should
linger through the day, keeping temperatures more in the 80s. With
the moisture and synoptic support moving through, storms are
forecast to fire up again in the area. Severe weather would be
possible, but likely not widespread with the cloud cover hindering
instability generation.

Thursday through Saturday, the area is forecast to be under
zonal/ridging flow. This should lead to relatively mid conditions
with little change in air mass. Temperatures are forecast to reach
the 80s and low 90s with winds around 10-20 mph. Storms are possible
each day, though the lack of larger synoptic forcing is keeping
chances lower around 10-25% (favoring the east where there will
likely be more moisture).

Late in the weekend, another upper trough is forecast to move into
the Western United States and push east towards the area. This could
lead to conditions similar to today and tomorrow with more moist and
warm conditions ahead of the trough. This should bring back better
chances for storms and severe weather, as long as the trough doesn`t
lag to the west. Otherwise, the benign conditions would continue a
few more days with slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through 09Z, but
storm chances are forecast to increase as we get into the late
afternoon and evening hours. These storms are likely to form
west and south of the terminals before moving over. Severe
weather is possible with large hail and wind gusts of 50-60 kts.
Blowing dust may also develop and reduce visibility to a mile at
times. KMCK has the higher chances for storms and may see them
for an extended period after 00Z. Once the storms clear,
ceilings are forecast to lower to around or below 1000ft for the
early morning hours. If storms or showers remain in the
vicinity, ceilings may stay closer to 2500ft or more. The precip
and low clouds should all be clearing by 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK