529
FXUS63 KGLD 081705
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1105 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog could develop over a limited portion of the area around
  sunrise this morning, mainly along and south of Interstate 70
  in eastern Colorado and south of Highway 40 in western Kansas.
  Fog, if present, would dissipate several hours after sunrise.

- Warm through Saturday, with high temperatures generally in the
  80s.

- Potential for breezy winds and low chances of precipitation
  over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Today: Strengthening low-level southerly flow /warm advection/
will foster the development of stratus over western portions of
the area early this morning (~12-18Z) and eastern portions of
the area during the late morning and afternoon (15-21Z). Expect
modestly breezy (~15-25 mph) south winds and further airmass
modification/warming today, albeit somewhat muted in eastern
portions of the area, where broken/overcast stratus may linger
through peak heating.. with highs ranging from the mid 60`s
(east) to mid 70`s (west).

Tonight: Nocturnally strengthening low-level southerly flow
/warm advection/ could facilitate a resurgence of stratus over
portions of the area this evening and overnight, though..
guidance is somewhat ambiguous with regard to whether or not
(and if so, to what extent) low ceilings may redevelop.. lending
a fair amount of uncertainty to overnight lows, especially in
eastern Colorado and adjacent Kansas/ Nebraska border counties
(in close vicinity to a broad lee trough/cyclone).. where modest
southerly winds may weaken and become light/variable prior to
sunrise. Expect lows ranging from the upper 40`s in northeast CO
to mid-upper 50`s in southeastern portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Thursday and Friday are forecast to bring back high
temperatures in the 80s with upper ridging over much of the
Plains. That being said, Thursday should be a few degrees warmer
than Friday as an upper trough is forecast to swing through the
Great Lakes region and help bring a weak cold front through the
area late Thursday. With the upper ridging and relatively
higher pressure over the area, chances for precipitation are
currently below 20%. Will have to keep an eye on how much
moisture moves in ahead of the next system, but guidance
currently favors higher level moisture and cloud cover.

The weekend is forecast to bring the next low pressure system
into the area as an upper trough over the Western United States
pushes to the east. While it is fairly likely that a surface low
pressure system moves through the area, when and how deep the
low pressure will be is currently in question. Ensemble 500mb
spread shows a wide spread in how quickly and how far north the
upper trough moves through, leading to a wide range of what the
low pressure system and accompanying cold front will look like.
At the very least, the area should see some increased winds and
small chances for precipitation. Most guidance does currently
favor a more northerly track, which would keep the lower level
moisture away from the area and leave us more with high level
cloud cover. However, Hurricane Priscilla may be able to move
inland enough to provide some better low level moisture that
moves along the Front Range and into the area. With the overall
favoring of a northerly track, this may keep the deeper portions
of the surface low well north of the area, keeping the area
from experiencing wind gusts above 50 mph (currently 15-30%
chance from NBM). Temperatures will likely remain warm on
Saturday with 80s and maybe a few 90s, while Sunday should be
cooler by at least 5-10 degrees.

Next week, ensemble guidance still shows quite a bit of
variance in how far the upper trough progresses and whether or
not another trough pushes into the Western United States. As a
whole, the troughing should help keep temperatures a bit cooler
and close to average in the 60s and 70s. Low end chances for
precipitation are also forecast, with the main limiter currently
being how much moisture remains in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For KGLD... Low cloud ceilings around 1000ft are forecast to
continue until about 19-20Z. By then, clouds should begin to
lift and clear either due to breaks in the clouds, or the
continued warming and clearing from the west. Once the clouds
clear, VFR conditions are forecast for the remainder of the
period. Will need to watch for some pockets of fog tonight as
the moisture slowly pushes east with an advancing surface low.
Lowest possible visibility look to be about 2SM if fog did form.
Winds should remain from the south through about 09-12Z with
speeds of 15-20 kts through 06Z, then lowering closer to 10 kts.
Winds after 12Z should begin to shift to out of the northwest.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the period. There is
a chance for fog tonight between 09-15Z as a surface low pushes
in from the west, but the chance is currently less than 15%.
Visibility could be around 3SM if it did form. Winds should
generally remain from the southeast, at 10-15kts during the day,
and then around 10kts through the night and tomorrow morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK