061
FXUS63 KGLD 031117
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire Tri-State
  area until 18Z.

- Rain showers are favored along and north of Interstate 70
  Tuesday.

- Thursday could see some fire weather threat along with the
  potential for rain/thunderstorms for portions of the area
  during the evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 143 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

This morning, an approaching low pressure system from the west is
drawing in southeasterly winds. This is promoting efficient moisture
advection into the Plains, leading to widespread fog, prompting the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. We could also see some drizzle
across the area. Thankfully, the moisture advection has pushed dew
points into the mid 30s, which will severely limit the potential of
temperatures dropping below freezing. Isolated pockets dropping to
below freezing are still possible this morning, which could lead to
very slick spots. Any potential for icing will end by 16Z, but the
dense fog threat could linger until closer to 18Z.

Today, as the low pushes over the High Plains, the surface front
will occur around 10-13Z. We are still expecting the mid and upper
level fronts to be trailing behind 6-12 hours, leaving the mid
layers dry ahead during the day. Behind the surface front, we can
expect winds Tuesday to be gusting around 20-30 kts. These winds
will bring in some cooler air, and with the long lasting fog and
persistent cloud cover, highs today will generally be around 50.
Throughout the day, as the 500 mb low gets closer and we remain
saturated at the surface, there will be a growing potential for
light rain.

The rest of the column looks to saturate in the late afternoon, as
the 500 mb low also enters. This will be the start of our better
precipitation chances. Best potential for precipitation will be
along and north of U.S. 36 between 0-6Z. Rain is still expected to
be the primary P-type, but some flurries could mix in closer to 6Z.
Precipitation will taper off from west to east between 6-15Z. As a
sidenote, there is a 5% chance of a brief thunderstorm around 0Z
this afternoon.

Tonight, the low will be exiting, pulling in some weak CAA behind
it. This is forecast to allow temperatures to drop to below freezing
by morning. There is a 50% chance any remaining liquid on the ground
freezes into black ice.

Wednesday looks to be pretty mild as we get a weak ridge to build
into the area. This will push out any remaining moisture in the area
and allow temperatures to warm back into the mid 60s. Wednesday
night could see a return of widespread fog as we get a near repeat
of this morning`s fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Thursday there is a surface low forecast in southwest Colorado
and an upper level trough west of the Rocky Mountains. As both
traverse eastward towards our region, we are forecast to be
under a southwesterly flow. This will further warm conditions
with high temperatures forecast in the mid to high 70s.

Southerly winds and a dryline developing in west Texas could allow
for further drying to take place lowering relative humidity (RH)
values further than currently forecast. RH values are forecast in
the low teens for the southwest CWA. A few hours of critical fire
weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon for our Colorado
counties. Winds are forecast to pick up Thursday afternoon with
gusts up to 35 mph possible. Fire weather concerns will decrease
after sundown as RH`s and dewpoints are able to recover. Winds will
persist through the overnight hours as a deepening upper level
trough traverses towards our region placing us in a strong southwest
flow under a 250 mb jet streak. This increase in upper level forcing
will give us a chance for precipitation overnight Thursday into
Friday. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 20-60%
overnight increasing south to north. A majority of the CWA should
expect rain as the primary precipitation type based on forecast
temperatures above freezing. There is a potential for thunderstorms
overnight based on increased MUCAPE over the CWA on the ECMWF and
GFS. The ECMWF has it over the entire area while the GFS has it only
over the eastern portion.

Friday, our region remains under a strong southwest flow with a deep
trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Winds continue to pick up Friday
and will reach their peak in the afternoon. A vertically stacked
southwest flow will likely allow stronger winds to mix down to the
surface Friday afternoon. Winds gusts from 30-40 mph are possible
for entire CWA. Winds calm down after sunset returning to our more
typical diurnal pattern overnight into Saturday. RH values are
forecast in the mid 20s, so fire weather conditions are not a
concern at this time. This may chance if we end up not getting much
precipitation from Thursday`s system.

Our region remains under a strong southwest flow Saturday, so
another warming trend is expected. High temperatures for Saturday
are forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Fire weather could be a
concern with RH values forecast in the upper teens for our Colorado
counties along with afternoon wind gusts up to 30 mph possible. Low
confidence on this currently since RH values will likely change
based on how much precipitation we get Thursday though Saturday
morning.

Sunday continues to warm with high temperatures forecast in the 60s
to 70s. RH values are forecast in the 20s for the CWA. Winds are
fairly mild for most of the CWA, but the northwest CWA could see
some gusts around 25 mph. Monday continues to be warm with high
temperatures in the 70s as our region is under a mostly zonal upper
level flow with a low off the coast of Baja California. This system
will be something to watch for potential impacts for our area late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 409 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Terrible ceilings and visibilities will persist at KGLD until
16-18Z when visibilities improve and then ceilings improve. KMCK
has been staying at LIFR conditions most of the night, but we
expect times when conditions will shut down the airport. Low
level icing is a major threat in these low ceilings. By 20Z,
both sites should be back VFR. MVFR to IFR conditions may return
tomorrow morning for both sites, higher confidence in KMCK
hitting IFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA