115
FXUS63 KGLD 202239
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
439 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low confidence in an isolated severe risk tonight for any
  storms which may develop along a front in Nebraska and then
  move south. If storms develop, large hail and damaging winds
  would be possible.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances Friday
  afternoon and evening with a marginal risk for wind and hail
  with stronger storms.

- Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and
  storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with
  this activity.

- Heat peaks on Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper ridge remains in control for today, centered over the Four
Corners. Hard to find any embedded waves rotating around it, in
fact heights are rising across the northern Rockies and
adjacent plains as the ridge amplifies. There will be a cold
front traversing the Dakotas this afternoon, but it stalls out
across northern Nebraska. Question is whether or not convection
will initiate on the front and move south into the area this
evening. Most CAMs show initiation occurring in northeast
Nebraska and further east, but not on the western end of the
front. If that holds, there will not be any convection in our
area. The low level jet does become more favorable after 06z and
may provide enough lift for something to develop, but not
overly optimistic at this time with the lack of support from the
CAMs. Environmental parameters remain somewhat favorable,
especially deep layer shear, but surface CIN becomes prohibitive
after 03z so storms would be elevated. MUCAPE is around
1500-2000 j/kg through the rest of the night, so perhaps a
marginal hail risk if something should develop.

On Friday the ridge elongates somewhat and the axis runs the
length of the Rockies from Montana to Colorado. This orientation
results in more of a northwest flow over the plains and opens
the door to any embedded weak waves to provide synoptic lift.
The surface front remains north of the area through the
afternoon, but the lee trough sets up along the Kansas and
Colorado border and would be a possible area for convection to
initiate. The front moves south Friday night and will be near
the Kansas/Nebraska border by around 06z and then move through
the remainder of the area overnight. The afternoon and evening
environment will be weak to moderately unstable, generally
1000-2000 j/kg but with some pockets up to 3000 j/kg, with deep
layer shear 30-40 kts. CAMs show isolated to widely scattered
storms in the afternoon and evening, with perhaps an increase in
coverage overnight in eastern areas as the low level jet again
becomes active and maintains elevated convection with a marginal
hail risk. May see patchy fog overnight and into Saturday
morning with the favorable post frontal easterly winds.

For the weekend, the ridge migrates eastward on Saturday with
the axis over eastern Colorado. Southwest flow over the Rockies
will initiate afternoon convection which will move northeast
across the plains Saturday night. Some of this remnant
convection will reach areas generally north of Interstate 70 in
the evening and overnight hours, but probably in a much weakened
state. On Sunday the ridge moves south into the Texas panhandle
area, with a zonal flow over the top in Colorado and Kansas. An
embedded wave will once again initiate convection over the
mountains and Front Range, reaching the area Sunday night. If it
gets here early enough may see a limited wind and hail threat,
mainly in Colorado, where SBCAPE is forecast up to 1500 j/kg and
deep layer shear up to 30 kts. Storms will tend to weaken into
Sunday night with mainly a marginal wind threat.

Temperatures peak on Friday with upper 90s to near 100, but then
will be slightly cooler over the weekend behind the front with
highs around 90 both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting the extended period Monday, 597 dam high pressure is
forecast to be in place over the SW CONUS. As long as it remains
situated in that position the potential for lobes of vorticity to
move around the high will keep our shower and storm potential in
play. The current forecast for the precipitation continues to
look reasonable as guidance has been coming into better
agreement with shortwave moving off of the Rockies during the
afternoon hours on Monday and possibly an even stronger wave
Tuesday as well. Do have some concerns about Monday however as
CAPE and shear may be a bit lacking which seems like a decent
scenario for outflow to get out ahead of storms and they
dissipate which which ECMWF ensemble qpf output on most members
suggest that this could be a realistic concern. Both may have
the potential for severe weather but Tuesday is currently
forecast to have a bit better CAPE and shear. Some qpf outputs
are also showing the potential for heavy rainfall as well so may
need to keep an eye on some flooding issues as well.

Wednesday and into the latter part of the week, guidance suggests
that heights rise as some ridge amplification occurs which is
synoptically favored to help suppress any additional storm
development. If this signal were to change then a similar pattern to
Monday and Tuesday would ensue and keep our daily storm chances in
play.

High temperatures are continued to be forecast in the 90s for the
extended period. 850mb moisture is forecast to remain in place
as well which will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid
90s instead of warming up into the upper 90s to even triple
digits. However if the overall high pressure were to shift
northward a little more then the higher temperatures could be
realized.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 437 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period with light winds and mostly clear skies. There is a low
probability, less than 20%, of an isolated thunderstorm this
evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024