209
FXUS63 KGLD 282032
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
232 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph is
  possible for portions of the eastern Colorado Counties this
  morning into the early afternoon hours.

- Chances of rain become widespread late tonight, increasing to
  as much as a medium to likely (60-90%) chance by Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Heavy rain is expected by Tuesday afternoon, especially
  along/south I-70 and along/east US-83, where 1.5 to 2.0 inches,
  or more, are expected by Wednesday morning.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. While rainfall
  totals are forecast to generally be around 0.5-2.0", there is
  the possibility for small parts of the area to see 3.0-5.0" of
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Current observations show the area under southwest flow aloft with
an upper low/trough upstream in the Western US while there is an
upper ridge over the Southern Plains. This has kept a steady stream
of cloud cover moving in from the west and a few sprinkles/showers
briefly moving into Eastern Colorado. This should continue through
the day and largely keep temperatures steady in the 60s and 70s.
Winds have increased a bit as a surface low has developed and
deepened along the Front Range. This has brought winds up in Eastern
Colorado and far western portions of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska to
around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. This should continue through
much of the afternoon and evening until the surface low gets pushed
more into the area. There is the possibility of a few storms
developing in Eastern Colorado after 4pm MT with some occasional
sunshine providing low amounts of instability. However, it looks
like the cloud cover will be too persistent and keep things capped.
Should a storm break through, it may produce hail around half an
inch to an inch with MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and effective shear
around 45 kts.

Tonight, the winds should again slowly lower through the night as
the low pressure expands into the area. Cloudy skies should remain
in place across the area and help keep temperatures in the 60s. The
cloud cover and some intermittent showers have lowered a chance for
fog a bit compared to prior nights. Still, it wouldn`t be
unreasonable for some fog late in the night close to sunrise with
maybe even some dense patches.

Tuesday, the upper trough is forecast to push towards the Four
Corners Region while the remnants of Polo merge with the low
pressure associated with the upper trough. This is forecast to keep
us under a steady stream of moisture from the southwest with cloud
cover through much of the day. This would also keep any fog that
developed in place for most of the morning. With the cloud cover
forecast to persist through the day, temperatures are unlikely to
warm much and stay in the 60s and low 70s. Showers and a few storms
will be possible through much of the day with the upstream upper
trough and ample available moisture. However, limited instability
and broad surface pressure should keep most of the accumulations
light with a tenth to half an inch forecast across most of the area.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday gets a little less certain as it
becomes less clear if the combination with the hurricane remnants
will help speed up the system, or cause it to stall near the area.
For now, the forecast is that the remnant low of the hurricane will
continue to push north and east, bringing stronger forcing into the
area and developing heavier bands of rain. These bands would push
through and give the area its best chance for rain and highest
accumulations. An additional 1-2" is possible with the higher
amounts more likely if a band wraps in place. Where precipitation
isn`t occurring, there should be some patches of fog with the air
remaining fairly saturated. This should also keep temperatures in
the 60s Tuesday night. Wednesday would then continue the chances for
rain in the area, but an encroaching dry slot and/or the system
shifting east may confine the rain to just parts of the area. Even
if the dry slot does move in, upper level cloud cover should remain
and keep temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Additional
precipitation of 1-2" is possible.

Wednesday night would keep the cloud cover and shower chances going,
though a faster system may lead to an early clearing. Even with the
cloud cover in place, temperatures may cool into the 50s with
northerly winds possibly bringing in cooler air.

In regards to the precipitation, the overall expectation for much of
this system is that totals would be around 0.5-2" for most of the
area. That may seem contradictory with the multiple mentions of 1-2"
possible above, but this stems from different areas likely being
impacted at the different times of day. As alluded to, there is also
uncertainty on how the system evolves across the area. Should the
system speed up, our rainfall totals would favor lower end amounts
except where storms train within banding. Given this, have opted to
keep the amounts low for now. But have issued a flood watch as it
isn`t unreasonable that we go the other way and end up with totals
around 3-5".

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Thursday through Friday:

Synoptically, the upper level trough will begin moving into the Tri-
State area Thursday morning. The majority of guidance indicates that
the center of the trough will track to the southeast of the County
Warning Area (CWA). By Friday, the system is expected to move out of
the CWA, leaving our upper level flow mainly from the northwest to
north.

At the surface, guidance indicates a boundary will move through from
the northwest, as well as a potential surface low to the southeast.
Expect breezy winds Thursday morning. Gusts of 30-45 mph are
currently forecast, with higher gusts expected across the Colorado
counties as well as areas south of I-70. Highs on Thursday and
Friday are forecast to be in the 60s to lower 70s.

The main hazard associated with this system will be heavy rainfall.
Storm total precipitation guidance shows 1-4 inches across the area
by Friday night into Saturday morning, with the majority of guidance
agreeing the higher amounts staying south of the Nebraska border.
However, some models, such as the ICON and GDPS, show a heavy
precipitation band of 4-5 inches right along the eastern border of
the CWA. The LREF shows a 10-25% probability of exceeding 3 inches
by Friday night. Ultimately, these totals will depend heavily on the
track of the upper level trough and potential surface low set up. A
farther north track would shift the the higher precipitation amounts
northward. A flood watch remains in effect for the CWA through
Thursday afternoon.


Saturday through Monday:

Synoptically, for the weekend into the early next week, upper level
flow returns predominantly for the northwest as the jet stream
remains near the US/Can border. Certain long range models, such as
the GFS, depict an upper level shortwave detaching from the main jet
and moving through the area Saturday afternoon. The ECMWF and
Canadian-NH models show a weaker, more subtle shortwave feature. The
Probabilities of Precipitation (PoPs) for the weekend remain under
10%. If this feature becomes strong then, it could increase our
precipitation chances.

High temperatures though the weekend are forecast to remain below 80
degrees. Saturday and Monday highs will be in the low to mid 70s
across the Tri-State area, with a brief "cooldown" into the 60s on
Sunday. Winds throughout the latter half of the long term period
look fairly breezy, with Saturday having the highest forecast gusts
in the 20-30 mph range as yet another boundary passes through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through 06Z,
short of ceilings around 1500-2500ft for the first two hours of
the period. A few showers and storms are possible after 23Z, but
the overall chance is closer to 20% and likely stay west of the
terminals. Around 06Z, LLWS is forecast at both terminals as the
low level jet is forecast to develop around 400ft from the south
with speeds around 45ft. The jet should fade through the night
and end by 14Z. After 09Z, the next system is forecast to begin
pushing in from the south, bringing chances for fog, low
ceilings and storms. For the remainder of the period, be alert
for varying conditions with intermittent showers and fog forming
and dissipating.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon
     for COZ090>092.
NE...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...KAK