660
FXUS63 KGLD 082318
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather outbreak possible this afternoon
  and evening. Supercells will be possible capable of producing
  large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two.

- Flash Flooding possible this afternoon and early evening
  generally north of Interstate 70 and east of Highway 25 for
  the possibility of an area of slow moving thunderstorms.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday with
  damaging winds and blowing dust the main hazards.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as
  well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and
  adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 923 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Significant severe weather outbreak possible today, in two
rounds. 12z CAMs painting several different scenarios, resulting
in only medium confidence. RRFS and HRRR in fairly good
agreement that convection will develop north of I-70 along and
north of remnant outflow from early storms in Nebraska, though
they differ in timing. HRRR is several hours earlier compared to
the RRFS. Some clearing has been noted in recent satellite in
the Tri Border area, though clouds are persisting further east.
The 3-km NAM shows that redevelopment will not occur at all,
probably due to persistent clouds. Assuming development does
occur as shown by the RRFS and HRRR, the environment will be
characterized by 2000-3000 j/kg of SBCAPE, deep layer shear of
40-50 kts and Significant Tornado Parameter values up to 2.
Supercells will be likely, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and a tornado or two. RRFS and HRRR show these
storms slowly moving through the aforementioned area through the
remainder of the afternoon. Given the slow motion, precipitable
water values up to 1.5", high mixing ratios advecting in from
the southeast, and RRFS/HRRR showing pockets of 2-4" of
rainfall, flash flooding will also be possible. Second round of
storms will develop along the Front Range this afternoon and
approach far eastern Colorado towards 00z and into northwest
Kansas/southwest Nebraska through 03z. These storms will pose
primarily a damaging wind threat, though with the favorable
shear continuing cannot totally discount a few embedded
supercells with a large hail and a tornado risk. Storms may tend
to weaken as they get further east into the area after 03z into
the area worked over by earlier convection. Any lingering
storms overnight should be widely scattered and not pose a
severe threat.

Tuesday, a reinforcing upper trough is forecast to push in from the
northwest while the original wave ejects off to the north. As it
does so, it is forecast to bring another trough axis near the
Plains. This would cause the surface low pressure to deepen and push
off to the east, more over the area. As it does so, winds are
forecast to strengthen and shift to out of the southwest. Speed are
currently forecast to be around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 30-50
mph range. The highers speeds should favor those along the Colorado
border. The southwest winds are also forecast to bring in a dryline
and dry the air over much of the area. This combination of strong
wind and dry air are forecast to produce critical fire weather
conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most counties
along the Colorado border with the risk for very high fire danger.
Burning is not advised as fires would likely be very hard to control.
In conjunction with this, the influx of warm air is forecast to
allow temperatures to reach the 100s across most of the area.
Thankfully, the drier air should keep the overall heat risk down with
apparent temperatures lower than the actual temperatures. Still,
take extra caution if you are spending any extend period of time
outside.

During the afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire
up again with the trough axis and dryline helping to provide
additional lift. The lower moisture availability and forecast lower
0-6km shear around 30-35 kts are forecast to have the storms be more
pulse in nature. This should limit the chances for severe weather,
except when it comes to wind gusts. While there is little signal for
widespread strong gusts, the drier air near the surface could help
stronger cold pools develop. Some guidance suggests peak wind gusts
could get to 80 mph. This would again lead to a concern for
blowing dust and potential walls of dust with good organized
outflows.

Tomorrow night, any lingering showers or storms should end close to
midnight as the trough axis swings into the Plains and pushes the
better forcing to the east. It should also push any lingering
moisture to the east as well and allow for clearer skies. In spite
of the skies clearing, the warm temperatures during the day combined
with strong winds around 15-25 mph are forecast to keep temperatures
up a bit. Locales in the eastern portion of the area could stay
above 70 while those further west close to 60 or just below 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The upper pattern on Wednesday has a 500 mb trough moving into the
region. There also looks to be some embedded shortwave disturbances
associated with the trough as well. Wedneday`s high temperatures do
show some concern with the highs potentially reaching the 100 degree
mark. The NBM and LREF, both are agreeing on there being around a 5-
10% chance for exceeding 100 degrees. This would mainly be for south
of Hwy 40. Currently they are forecast to be in the mid to high 90s.
There does look to be a cold front, possibly two, that look to move
through the area. Winds look to be from the west to northwest,
bringing dry conditions. Gusts are forecast to be in the 20-40 mph
range. One concern would be blowing dust. Currently there is some
signal for localized plumes mainly for west of KS Hwy 27. With the 2-
2.5 km lapse rates being higher than 6.5 C/km, this would allow for
the dust to mix out and present air quality issues.

There is some fire weather concern with Wednesday for the Colorado
Counties. There could be Critical Fire Weather may be present.
Looking at GFDI the values are 60+. For Western Kit Carson County
and Northwestern Cheyenne County, CO there are peak values up to 80.
This would be supportive of very high to extreme fire growth.
Relative Humidity (RH) values lower into the lower teens around 20Z
Wednesday to 0Z Thursday. The one variable is the gusts, the main
concern is will the peak gusts be in line with the lower RH values.
The EFI SOT table does show Wednesday with some indication of the
winds being higher than normal. Guidance is suggesting that there
could be portions of the afternoon where Red Flag conditions get
met. Both the NBM and LREF show about a 50-80% that they exceed 25
mph. Confidence as of right now is about a 30-40% for Red Flag
Conditions being met.


Thursday looks to "cool" down from prior day to the mid to high 80s,
with some localized low 90s. Winds look to remain from the north and
shift to from the east towards the evening. Gusts look to be in the
range of 25-40 mph. The peak time does look to be in the morning
hours. There is some disagreement on the location of the winds from
Guidance. The LREF currently favors east of KS Hwy 27 and the NBM
favors west of KS Hwy 27. During the peak winds the RH values are in
the 16-30% range. One thing to note is in the afternoon the values do
begin to decrease to the lower teens for the majority of the CWA. In
the morning there could be times where Elevated Fire weather could
be present. GFDI is also in the 50+ range, but this is also
dependent on where the peak gust occur.


The extended part of the forecast period. The weekend`s upper
pattern has a trough from the northern Rockies move into the region.
With the trough there looks to be some embedded shortwaves that
could bring up some precipitation chances. The trough does move
through fairly quickly and is out of the region come Saturday
morning and we transition to zonal flow. Sunday through Monday there
is another trough that begins to move through that could bring other
round of precip chances.

As for the highs Friday and Saturday look to be pretty similar.
Values are in the mid to high 80s, with some locations hitting 90.
There is one variable with the winds and our precipation chances.
There is currently some Guidance disagreement with whether or not we
will have a surface low, high, or we get sandwiches between both.
This will ultimately decide if our winds are from the south or north
and that will either bring moist or dry conditions. Currently PoPs
are having east of KS Hwy 83 10-20% chance for Friday, and 20-30%
for the whole CWA on Saturday.

Highs on Sunday and Monday, look to be pretty similar values are in
the mid to high 80s, with some locations hitting 90. Winds and Gusts
look to remain fairly calm for this period. As for precipitation
chances there is about a 20-40% chance of exceeding 0.01". Given
this is 6-7 days out, there is a fair amount that can change. With
that being said, NCAR AI Convective Hazard Forecast does show some
signal for severe weather being presently, to what extend time will
tell.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move across the area this
evening. Both KGLD and KMCK could see brief gusty winds as the
line moves through, as well as reductions in visibility in rain
and possibly blowing dust. Latest timing estimates have the line
moving through between 02-06z. Overnight, moist southeast will
advect low clouds and patchy fog into the area. A period of IFR
conditions will be possible at both terminals Tuesday morning,
gradually burning off by late morning or early afternoon
(slightly later at KMCK). Scattered afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon have a low probability of directly impacting
either terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ001-013-027.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-
     014>016.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...024