243
FXUS63 KGLD 010614
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1214 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms may develop around sunrise into early
  this morning generally along and north of Interstate 70.
  There is a chance, around 30%, that a stronger storm develops,
  capable of producing hail up to quarter size.

- There is a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon and
  evening for the entire area. Supercells will be possible,
  capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and blowing
  dust, and perhaps a tornado.

- Storm chances continue through much of the week. Severe
  weather is possible Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

In the near term, CAMs suggesting that elevated convection will
develop in the area by 12z and persist into Monday morning.
Favored area appears to be along and just of north of Interstate
70 from northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas. Models show a
narrow baroclinic zone in that area where isentropic lift is
maximized at 750-800 mb. The baroclinic zone lifts north and
weakens by 15z. MUCAPE is around 1500-2000 j/kg and 0-6km shear
around 50 kts, so cannot completely rule out an elevated severe
storm capable of producing large hail during a brief window this
morning (10-15z).

After the morning convection, will see several hours with no
precipitation. Isolated storms will begin to develop by 21z in
southwest Kansas near a surface low as well as near the Front
Range in the upslope regime. Models show convection rapidly
increasing in coverage in both areas by 23-00z as they move into
the forecast area from the south and the west. The environment
will consist of an axis of moderate instability, up to 1500
j/kg, from northeast Colorado into western Kansas at peak
heating, though weaker further north and east. Deep layer shear
is forecast at 40-50 kts. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but
there does appear to be some phasing between embedded waves in
the southwest flow around a ridge in the southern plains and an
upper low in the northern Rockies. The deep layer shear should
compensate for the relatively weak forcing and instability. A
few supercells may develop, especially early with the more
discrete cells before clustering in the evening. All hazards
will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and
blowing dust, as well as a tornado or two with several surface
boundaries in the area. The severe threat will continue into the
evening hours gradually shifting into eastern areas. Some
storms will persist into the overnight hours with a marginal
severe risk, as models show MUCAPE overnight of 500-1000 j/kg
and 0-6 km shear still around 40-50 kts, though coverage will
decrease.

Storms may persist into early Tuesday morning in far eastern
portion of the area, east of Highway 23, before finally moving
out. Tuesday afternoon the pattern is fairly similar to Monday.
The upper flow will weaken slightly with a weaker ridge to the
south and the northern Rockies upper low beginning to move north
as well. The end result will see somewhat weaker deep layer
shear, but still around 40 kts north of I-70 decreasing to
around 20 kts to the south. Instability is forecast to be around
2000 j/kg at peak heating, highest in Colorado into western
Kansas. The missing ingredient may be forcing, with only a hint
of a weak wave in the flow aloft given the factors mentioned
above. CAMs not in particularly good agreement, with the HRRR
and RRFS showing little to no convection in the area, while the
3-km NAM suggests another round of severe storms. So, confidence
is rather low regarding severe risk on Tuesday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today,
cooling a bit into the lower 80s for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

For the extended period of the week, Wednesday there is a weak ridge
that is sandwiched between two lows. The low pressure system to the
northwest of the ridge, will kick out some shortwave disturbances
that will bring precipitation chances to the region. Then the upper
flow transitions to more zonal flow. As next weekend approaches, the
upper pattern begins to change. There are signs of a trough that
moves into the area from the Pacific Northwest.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the mid 80s
to low 90s for the majority of this period. The lows are forecast to
be in the 50-60s range. Winds look to remain relatively calm and
from the south to southeast. The only outlier in this is Wednesday
where temperatures hangout in the mid to low 80s. However, the lows
remain in the 50 to 60 range.

As for precipitation chances, the CWA is in the typical afternoon
shower/storm chances in the afternoon/evening. Wednesday through
Friday PoPs are in the 20-70% range. Saturday and Sunday`s
precipitation chances decrease to 10-30%. Each day is currently
forecast to have atleast 1000 J/kg of SFC CAPE which would support
storm development.

As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for anything yet.
However, different guidance outputs have suggested that the
shortwave disturbances could be stronger. Also, more moisture could
be advected in increasing more fuel for storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Main aviation concern for both KGLD and KMCK for the period will
be thunderstorm chances. Overnight, scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms may develop towards 12z and persist into
Monday morning. Confidence is low in both development and
coverage, so will not mention in the TAFs at this time. Later in
the afternoon, thunderstorms will redevelop across the area
with an upper level disturbance. These storms will have better
coverage and will continue into the evening hours. Potential
impacts to the terminals will be brief gusty winds and minor
visibility reductions in rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK/Holdren
AVIATION...024