932
FXUS63 KGLD 102114
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
314 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms Friday night with a
  front moving through Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds
  may accompany stronger storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Current mid-level water vapor and surface analysis shows our region
under a predominantly northwest upper-level flow with a weak trough
present in southwest Kansas. The patchy fog we had this morning
cleared out rather quickly leading to clear skies and warm
temperatures. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s with lows in
the 60s. A boundary has set up along a line approximately from
Flagler, Colorado to Stratton, Nebraska. With around 2000 J/kg of
CAPE present in that area, isolated showers/thunderstorms are
possible along this boundary. Effective shear is maxing out around
20 knots, so that will likely be the limiting factor for any storms
that develop. Storms are unlikely to be severe, but we could see
some gusty conditions with any collapsing storms. Main highlight for
the day will be some windy conditions, particularly for the western
portion of the county warning area (CWA). Winds will begin to pick
up around 3pm with gusts around 30 mph possible. Windy conditions
will persist through early Friday morning for the western CWA.

Friday, we transition to more of a zonal upper-level ridge pattern.
Mostly southerly winds will further warm conditions with high
temperatures forecast in the 90s. Currently, the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has the northeast CWA outlooked for a marginal chance
of thunderstorms. The environment in the northeast CWA is moderately
unstable with around 2000 J/kg of CAPE and around 30-40 knots of 0-6
km Bulk Shear. Steep lapse rates are also present with 700-500 mb
lapse rates around 7 C/km and low level around 8-9 C/km. These would
be supportive of hail around 1 inch and wind gusts around 60 mph.
Model soundings have a fairly dry mid-layer, so that may be a
limiting factor in storms. HREF paintballs have storms initiating in
the central CWA east of a dryline as early as 3pm MDT and traversing
mostly northeast. Storms will likely exit the area from the east by
midnight. The location of the dryline is what will really dictate
our storm chances for Friday afternoon. A dryline further east would
reduce our storm chances and coverage, while a dryline further west
could increase storm coverage for the CWA.

Conditions are forecast to be cooler Saturday. A cold front will
move through from the north early Saturday morning resulting in
forecast high temperatures in the low 80s. If the cold front lingers
in the area, we could see some storms initiate in the afternoon for
the northeastern CWA as the environment is marginally supportive of
storms. Low confidence (<15%) that storms will occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Starting Sunday, an upper level ridge starts to amplify in the
Central Plains and into Montana as a low-pressure system in the
Northwest slides northeast into Southern Canada on Monday. Once
the low-pressure passes through, southwesterly flow returns and
will stay until a broad upper-level trough comes through from
the north, eventually returning back into the ridge pattern late
in the week. This will allow chances for showers and cooling
temperatures over next week. Monday and Tuesday will have the
first potential for showers as the cold front moves through and
transitions into southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves on
tuesday. There is high confidence (80%) that the cold front will
occur Monday afternoon, but there is medium confidence (50%)
that showers will linger into Tuesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, conditions for showers look to be
similar to Monday and Tuesday. A broader cold front will pass
through overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning bringing a
drier air mass and a ridge pattern over the area. Confidence
decreases from medium to low (50-20%) over the two days as there
is a large variability on when the cold front will pass through.
While there is a decent chance (up to 45%) for showers across
the area, latest guidance favors the southern half of the area
for accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch of rain based
on the southerly motion and timing of the front.

Temperatures will start in the low 90s Sunday and dip into the
upper 80s and low 90s Monday. For Tuesday onwards, afternoon
highs should remain in the 70s as a 5-degree temperature spread
starts to form over the forecast area that could potentially put
highs into the upper 70s. There is medium confidence (60%) that
temperature will rise later in the week as we move back into the
ridge pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period. Winds will be mainly out of the south with gusts
around 20 mph possible. Low confidence (<5%) in patchy low-
level wind shear affecting KMCK around 09Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK/Rhoades
LONG TERM...KMK/Moeller
AVIATION...Rhoades