862
FXUS63 KGLD 030533
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1033 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is forecast to develop over mainly western portions
  of the area overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday night.
  Most of the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern
  Colorado and potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.

- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
  lead to minor/nuisance travel impacts.

- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
  to low teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Over the next few hours, the surface low over Southeast
Colorado into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. As the low
slides east, mid and low level moisture and cooler air will push
south over the Tri-State area during the late evening to
overnight hours and merge with the moisture pushing east across
the Colorado Rockies. Along with the increase in moisture, we
are also looking at an area of vorticity at the 500-700 mb level
primarily along and west of the Colorado border which will
provide forcing and the potential for flurries and light snow
through Wednesday night. There is also a cold front moving south
providing additional frontogenesis after sunrise tomorrow.

We could see flurries as early as 5-6 pm MT in Western portions
of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado with light snow
moving in between 8-10 pm MT off of the Palmer Divide. Majority
of the measurable snow is expected to be in Colorado and the
neighboring Kansas and Nebraska counties. Flurries are possible
across the area given the decent moisture profile. The peak for
snowfall is currently expected to be during the day tomorrow
with snow tapering off from north to south by 12 am MT (Midnight
MT) Wednesday night. The latest forecast has snow amounts up to
2-3" in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO)
counties with the remainder of those counties and the
surrounding ones looking at a trace to 1". There is a chance
that most of the snow falls west of our area over the Palmer
Divide and along the Front Range, resulting in amounts of an 1"
or less for western portions of the area. The western halves of
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60%
chance of seeing an inch of snow or more. There is only a ~40%
chance of localized accumulations of an inch east of the
Colorado border, and the potential rapidly declines farther
east. This snow is expected to be powdery with snow to liquid
ratios of 12-16:1. Some blowing snow is possible late Wednesday
morning to afternoon, but is not expected to be much more than a
nuisance due to the north to northeast winds of 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph.

Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 20s thanks to
the cold air moving in overnight. With the area-wide overcast
skies and falling snow for those out west, temperatures are not
expected to warm up much for highs on Wednesday with
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Overnight lows could fall
into the teens Wednesday night with potential for wind chills
Thursday morning to be in the single digits to low teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Overview: A pronounced omega block (the center/ridge of which
will be anchored over the eastern Pacific) will hold sway /
dominate the synoptic pattern over the western half of the CONUS
late this week through early next week, fostering a prolonged
period of WNW-NW flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains..
while a deep cyclonic gyre/vortex in eastern Canada (centered in
vicinity of Hudson Bay) maintains troughing / cyclonic flow
aloft over the eastern CONUS.

Below average forecast confidence. Long range guidance suggests
that episodic shortwaves rounding the northern periphery of the
ridge in the eastern Pacific will traverse the Northern and
Central Plains in NW-WNW flow aloft late this week through early
next week. Forecast uncertainty in this period largely stems
from potential interactions between shortwave energy rounding
the northern periphery of the eastern Pacific ridge and
shortwave energy rounding the west and southwest periphery of
the cyclonic gyre in Canada. Broadly speaking, in such a
pattern, one would expect unsettled weather (periodically, at
least). 12Z 12/02 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF suggest dry
conditions.. with occasional precipitation confined to the
Rockies and/or Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the next 6-12
hours for both KGLD and KMCK. KGLD will be on the eastern edge
of a snowy system. We are expecting to see some snow at KGLD
with the worst of it remaining to the west. However, there is a
30-40% chance stronger snow and breezy conditions impact KGLD
and reduce the airport to IFR. KMCK could see some light snow,
but impacts from the snow itself are not likely at KMCK.

Both TAF sites will be impacted by lowering ceilings. MVFR looks
to dominate for most of the period, but periods of IFR ceilings
are likely. Most likely timings of IFR conditions are shown in
the TAFs. Ceilings will begin lifting tonight from north to
south.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA