474
FXUS63 KGLD 261842
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1142 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather and near normal temps around Thanksgiving.

- Strong N winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage Fri night into Sat, strongest (30-40 G 55 mph)
  Sat morning. A few snow showers may accompany the frontal
  passage early Sat morning (prior to sunrise).

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today-Tonight: Light southerly flow will develop over western
portions of the area today as 1032 mb surface high pressure over
central KS (at 16 UTC this morning) slowly shifts ESE-SE toward
MO-AR (this afternoon). Expect temperatures similar to
Tuesday.. albeit slightly warmer (mid-upper 40s) in the west and
slightly cooler (lower-mid 40s) in the east. A strong (125-150
knot) NNW upper level jet over the northern and central Rockies
(this morning) will shift east toward the Northern/Central
Plains this afternoon and evening. Cyclonic shear vorticity on
the eastern periphery of the eastward advancing NNW jet.. and
somewhat more focused/localized ascent in the thermally indirect
left-exit region of said jet.. will foster increasing mid-upper
level cloud cover over western NE-KS this aft and eve.
Current/recent runs of high-res guidance (HRRR/RAP/NAM NEST) do
not indicate any measurable precipitation. Forecast soundings
and simulated reflectivity forecasts are indicative of virga
(flurries, at best).. mainly along and north of Hwy 36 between
~22-04 UTC (~3-9 pm MST). A clearing trend will follow, late
this evening.. with overnight lows in the lower-mid 20s.

Thu-Thu night (Thanksgiving): Pleasant/benign weather. Expect
mostly clear skies, light winds and near-average temperatures in
the subsident wake of the eastward advancing NNW jet and
amplifying east CONUS trough.

Friday: Guidance indicates that an upper level wave progged to
move ashore the Pacific Northwest on Thu will initially progress
east toward the northern Rockies (Thu night), then abruptly dig
SSE toward the central Rockies (Fri) -- after an interaction
with additional shortwave energy rapidly progressing S-SSE
through British Columbia/Alberta -- fostering the development of
a pronounced cyclone in the lee of the central Rockies. Expect
a warming trend associated with strengthening low-level
southerly flow / warm advection on the eastern periphery of the
developing cyclone, with breezy S winds and highs in the lower
to upper 50s, warmest in CO -- while low-level southerly flow
will increase in magnitude with eastern extent from the CO-KS
border (i.e. the breeziest south winds will be along/east of Hwy
83).. guidance suggests that pervasive low ceilings (stratus)
will inhibit diurnal heating/mixing in eastern portions of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday night, a 500 mb trough will be digging south over the
Northern Rockies with a corresponding 850 mb low coming out of
the Northern Rockies. Guidance continues to show the low and
associated cold front entering the northwestern CWA around 3-6Z
Saturday and over 4 to 6 hours clearing the CWA. Looking at
cross-sections, Equivalent Potential Temperatures and lapse
rates show brief pockets instability and fairly widespread
conditional instabilty. Additionally, 1-12 microbars of forcing
and a mostly saturated column are expected. There does appear to
still be some dry air intrusion around 700 mb, but this signal
looks much weaker now than it did 24 hours ago. Temperatures
will likely have already cooled to below freezing before the
cold front hits, and will drop into the uppers teens to low 20s
by morning. Gusty winds look likely with and behind the front,
but how fast is still in question. Before sunrise, gusts ranging
from 20-30 kts are likely, but gusts up to 45 kts are possible.

To boil it down, snow is expected early Saturday morning as a
quick moving cold front sweeps through the area. The gusty winds
will likely lead to blowing snow. With the instability, there
is potential for a fast moving convective snow squall. Either
the blowing snow or snow squall would lead to a rapid reduction
in visibility, making travel hazardous. Confidence in visibility
reduction to under 3 miles in this system is about 30%.
Thankfully, snow accumulation is expected to remain less than an
inch. With the ground temperature being so warm, most of the
snowfall is expected to melt within a few hours of falling.

Saturday`s temperatures will be kept in the 30s between the
northerly winds and cloud cover. While there could be lingering
flurries during the day Saturday through Sunday, a lull in
precipitation is expected before the next system. The more
concerning parameter is the winds. The 850 mb LLJ from the north
is forecast to be roaring around 35-45 kts. There is a 50%
chance these winds will mix down to the surface Saturday midday.
What lowers confidence in 40+ kts mixing to the surface include
the ~20% potential of too shallow of lapse rates, and the ~30%
chance the LLJ jet will set up to the east of the CWA. If the
stronger gusts are able to reach the surface, there is a 10%
chance 50-55 kts gusts mix down. The strongest wind gusts are
expected to favor the eastern CWA and weaken in the late
afternoon.

Sunday night, a heavily tilted 500 mb shortwave ridge and an
850 mb high are expected to move into, if not through, the CWA.
During this time, a lull in the precipitation is very likely and
winds will weaken. Temperatures will cool to around 10 degrees
and there is a 5% chance patchy freezing fog will form.

Throughout the day Sunday, the 850 mb high will move east of
the CWA and will be pushing moisture back into the area. The
next 500 mb trough will start impacting the CWA later in the
day. Guidance is in even less agreement as to what Sunday and
Sunday night will hold vs 24 hours, but there is a 30% chance of
precipitation for most of this time. The GFS and CMC-NH are
showing a well saturated column through Sunday night with mild
to moderate forcing, which would give the area some snow, likely
less than 2 inches. The ECMWF is showing us getting dry-slotted
and prevents majority of this round of precipitation. The one
things models and ensembles are agreeing on is that there is
less than a 10% chance of the area receiving more than 3 inches
of snow Sunday through Monday morning. NBM/NDFD QPF is basically
0, which is not representative of the expected precipitation
amounts.

The cold temperatures will also become a hazard. Sunday`s
temperatures look to remain below freezing. Low temperatures are
forecast to drop to around 10F, again. While winds will not be
overly strong during the coldest times, wind chills are expected
to drop around and below zero Sunday and Monday mornings with
Saturday and Tuesday mornings cooling into the single digits.

There is a 30% chance the heaviest snowfall will be early
Monday morning and continue into the morning commute. The NBM is
barely showing this in the NDFD PoPs grids. However, the GFS,
ECMWF, and CMC-NH all show a moderately moist column while the
the 500 mb trough axis passes through the area, around 18Z
Monday. What would prevent precipitation occurring midday Monday
would be if dry, northerly air intrudes and we lose the
moisture. This would keep temperatures around, if not below,
freezing Monday, instead of the mid to upper 30s the NBM/NDFD
are showing.

Precipitation is expected to cease by 6Z Tuesday and a weak
ridge will start building in. Overnight lows Monday night look
to be in the low teens. During the day Tuesday, temperatures
will start warming again and it should be a few days before our
next system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 905 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with
ceilings confined to upper level cloud cover (at or above
~10,000 ft AGL). Light southerly winds will modestly increase to
10-15 knots during the late morning to early afternoon. Winds
will weaken and become variable shortly before sunset and remain
light/variable through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Scattered
cirrus (at/above 18,000 ft AGL) will give way to broken mid-
level ceilings (~5,000 to 10,000 ft AGL) late this aft and eve,
mainly ~23-04Z when virga and/or a few flurries are possible.
Light and predominantly variable winds will prevail throughout
the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent