414
FXUS63 KGLD 241840
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1240 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  early evening in northwest Kansas east of Highway 25 and south
  of Interstate 70.

- Scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon and Friday
  night, but severe storms are not expected.

- Warmer and dry over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Surface low located near KGLD at 18z will gradually move east
through this afternoon, then finally lift out to the northeast
tonight. Latest radar trends show that intensity and coverage of
rain and shower has been decreasing. CAMs show that trend
continuing for a few more hours. However, by mid to late
afternoon may see an increase in activity in eastern areas near
the surface low and trailing cold front, where instability is
forecast to increase to 500-2000 j/kg along with bulk shear
values of 30-35 kts. The area of concern will be along and south
of Interstate 70 and east of Highway 25 in northwest Kansas,
where there will be a marginal risk for a couple of weak
supercells capable of isolated hail or damaging wind gusts
through about 01-02z before moving out to the east. Afterwards,
upslope winds on the backside of the departing low will result
in areas of fog this evening and through the overnight. The fog
may be widespread and dense in northwest Kansas and southwest
Nebraska given the already saturated conditions. The fog will
gradually dissipate late in the overnight and early Friday
morning as surface winds turn westerly and downslope drying
commences.

After morning fog burns off, Friday will be a mostly cloudy day
with just a few lingering isolated showers in the morning and
early afternoon. Another shortwave trough rotating around the
upper ridge will move through western Kansas Friday afternoon.
CAMs show thunderstorms developing in southwest Kansas around
21z then moving north into areas generally south of Interstate
70 in northwest Kansas by 21-23z, then northeast into areas east
of Highway 25 Friday evening. REFS shows weak instability of
less than 1000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear of 20-25 kts during that
time. As a result, the probability of severe weather will be
low. Additional storms moving into far northeast Colorado in
the evening are also not expected to be severe due to lack of
instability and shear, weakening as they approach the Kansas
border.

Over the weekend, the upper ridge will amplify northward into
the Central High Plains. This will result in dry conditions and
warmer temperatures. Saturday will see dry northwest winds,
which result in afternoon relative humidity minimums falling
into the teens in northeast Colorado. However, winds will be
light and critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated.
Southeast winds on Sunday will increase the moisture and keep
humidity between 20-30% in Colorado, and much higher further
east. The ridge does begin to break down Sunday night, and there
is a low probability for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
overnight in northeast Colorado, remnants of earlier Front Range
convection.

Temperatures on Friday will be near to slightly below normal,
then warming to above normal on Saturday and Sunday with highs
in the low to mid 80s. Normal highs for this time of year is in
the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Saturday morning, a weak 500-mb trough looks to be over the forecast
region. Surface winds out of the northwest are possible with a weak
cold front across Eastern Colorado. However, high temperatures are
forecast to rise into the 80s across the forecast area despite the
troughing overhead and weak cold front. This would likely be due to
weaker surface winds alongside clearing of cloud cover, which
would allow solar heating to dominate as the primary heating
mechanism for the day. This solution is supported by LREF
guidance, which shows a 60% chance or higher for less than 10%
cloud cover along and west of U.S. Highway 83. In addition, NBM
guidance suggests a 50% chance or greater that surface winds
will remain below 10 mph across most of the forecast region.
Even NBM 25th percentile high temperatures are in the 80s across
the CWA (County Warning Area) except along U.S. Highway 283
where lingering cloud cover may keep highs in the upper 70s. It
should be noted that forecast guidance indicates relative
humidities dropping into the teens across portions of Eastern
Colorado Saturday afternoon, which could indicate some potential
for critical fire weather conditions. However, NBM guidance
suggests a 1 in 3 chance or less that wind gusts will exceed 25
mph across most of this area, which leaves confidence in fire
weather conditions occurring less than 5%.

Ridging looks to build into the forecast area Sunday, with ensemble
guidance suggesting that this will transition into more
southwesterly upper-level flow by Monday morning. Conditions
continue to be forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the
forecast region. Precipitation remains unlikely at least through the
morning hours on Monday, as NBM precipitation guidance remains below
a 10% probability for all areas that greater than 0.1 inches of rain
will occur.

Troughing is forecast to begin moving overhead sometime Monday
afternoon or evening. A surface low at the leading edge of this
trough would be expected to deepen with the aid of sufficient upper-
level divergence and lee cyclogenesis across the Central and North-
Central Plains. A cold front appears likely as the surface low
passes through the forecast area sometime between the afternoon and
night hours Monday. Chances for precipitation increase dramatically
along the frontal boundary, as NBM guidance shows that most areas
have at least a 40% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain with
this activity through 6 am Tuesday. Areas north and east of a line
from Trenton, NE to Hill City, KS have as high as a 75% chance for
the same. Some of this activity may be associated with
thunderstorms, particularly along and east of U.S. Highway 83 where
LREF guidance shows between a 1 in 2 and 1 in 3 chance that surface
CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) will be above 1000 J/kg.
The same guidance suggests between a 40 and 50% chance that sfc-
500mb wind shear will exceed 30 knots, which could allow some
thunderstorms to become severe if they develop. High winds would be
the biggest concern with these storms, as GFS and EC model soundings
suggest the vertical wind shear would be along the cold front.
Additionally, CAPE and wind shear seem like they would be a bit low
for large hail and tornadoes to occur with storms. As such, a
reasonable forecast would be widespread showers and thunderstorms
along the cold front, with perhaps a storm or two having a chance to
produce severe wind. Confidence in severe weather occurring Monday
night and into Tuesday is around 5%.

Forecast guidance becomes a lot more uncertain by Tuesday morning.
Ensemble guidance is in support of troughing remaining overhead into
the evening hours, but becoming less certain on how quickly the
upper trough will move out of the forecast area. LREF guidance
doesn`t seem to favor the trough moving out of the area until
Wednesday morning, when about 55-60% of the members show 500-mb
heights above 576 dam (5760 meters). However, even by Wednesday
afternoon, 30% of the members still show the trough in the area.
Cooler temperatures seem likely Tuesday afternoon, with highs
forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s. However, conditions on
Wednesday would depend on whether the trough is still in the area or
not. If the feature has moved off to the east, warmer and drier
conditions could be expected, with highs in the mid 70s to 80s.
Otherwise, cooler and wetter conditions would be expected to remain
in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon and
evening hours at both KGLD and KMCK. Associated low clouds will
keep ceilings mostly IFR, though an occasional break to MVFR
will also be possible. Tonight, the showers will become more
isolated, but fog will likely develop as winds become more
northeast around a surface low and enhance upslope. Ceilings
will also gradually lower through the night. So, expecting IFR
and VLIFR to prevail at both terminals. A very gradual
improvement to IFR and perhaps MVFR will occur Friday morning as
surface winds become more westerly.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024