322
FXUS63 KGLD 080521
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop around, or shortly before, sunrise Wednesday
  morning, mainly along and south of Interstate 70 in eastern
  Colorado and south of Highway 40 in western Kansas. Fog, if
  present, will dissipate several hours after sunrise.

- Warm through Saturday, with high temperatures generally in the
  80s.

- Potential for breezy winds and low chances of precipitation
  over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For this afternoon, a mix of clouds and sun remains forecast
with some lower level moisture through 700mb remaining in the
area. With the area on the backside of an upper trough and
higher surface pressure over the area, no precipitation is
expected this afternoon or evening.

As we get closer to midnight and through the remainder of the
night, the lower level flow is forecast to become stronger from
the south as the higher pressure shifts east and lower pressure
builds near the Front Range. With the stronger low level flow,
moisture is forecast to advect into the area, mainly along and
south of Highway 36. With the increase in moisture, there will
be the possibility for both precipitation and dense fog. The
precipitation chance looks to be similar to this morning, where
showers form generally along and south of Highway 40 where the
higher concentration of moisture is forecast to be. Isentropic
analysis suggests that there should be some lift that will allow
precipitation to form, with the GFS favoring more over Eastern
Colorado and the RAP favoring more of Western Kansas. For now,
have both areas with a chance. There could also be a few
lightning strikes with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. The remainder of
the area west of Highway 83 could see dense fog develop where
showers don`t move in with semi southeasterly/upslope flow and
low dewpoint depressions around 0-3 degrees Fahrenheit. The main
inhibitors for fog could be increased cloud cover insulating
temperatures and keeping dewpoint depressions higher, and
increasing wind speeds around 10-20 mph mixing the lower
atmosphere. Low temperatures should generally be in the 40s and
low 50s.

Tomorrow, some showers and dense fog may be able to linger
through the morning hours. Warming temperatures and decreasing
isentropic lift should put an end to both the fog and
precipitation as the morning goes on. While upper ridging is
forecast to build over the area, with low surface pressure
expanding along the Front Range, the shift in air mass may take
most of the day and allow cloud cover to linger. For those who
see the cloud cover clear out (likely west of Highway 25),
temperatures should warm into the 70s. The rest of the area is
more likely to have temperatures max out in the 60s. Tomorrow
should also have the winds remain around 10-25 mph with the area
forecast to be between the lower and higher surface pressure.
Gusts could reach up to around 30-40 mph.

Tomorrow night, the winds are forecast to remain elevated
around 10- 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph unless the center of the
surface low can move near the area and broaden, weakening the
gradient. As the low pushes in, the low level moisture should
push further to the east, though locales along and east of
Highway 83 are forecast to have enough moisture linger for
either some low cloud cover, or fog. Temperatures should drop
into the 40s for counties along the Colorado border where clear
skies and lighter winds are forecast to be. The rest of the area
is more likely to remain in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Thursday and Friday are forecast to bring back high
temperatures in the 80s with upper ridging over much of the
Plains. That being said, Thursday should be a few degrees warmer
than Friday as an upper trough is forecast to swing through the
Great Lakes region and help bring a weak cold front through the
area late Thursday. With the upper ridging and relatively
higher pressure over the area, chances for precipitation are
currently below 20%. Will have to keep an eye on how much
moisture moves in ahead of the next system, but guidance
currently favors higher level moisture and cloud cover.

The weekend is forecast to bring the next low pressure system
into the area as an upper trough over the Western United States
pushes to the east. While it is fairly likely that a surface low
pressure system moves through the area, when and how deep the
low pressure will be is currently in question. Ensemble 500mb
spread shows a wide spread in how quickly and how far north the
upper trough moves through, leading to a wide range of what the
low pressure system and accompanying cold front will look like.
At the very least, the area should see some increased winds and
small chances for precipitation. Most guidance does currently
favor a more northerly track, which would keep the lower level
moisture away from the area and leave us more with high level
cloud cover. However, Hurricane Priscilla may be able to move
inland enough to provide some better low level moisture that
moves along the Front Range and into the area. With the overall
favoring of a northerly track, this may keep the deeper portions
of the surface low well north of the area, keeping the area
from experiencing wind gusts above 50 mph (currently 15-30%
chance from NBM). Temperatures will likely remain warm on
Saturday with 80s and maybe a few 90s, while Sunday should be
cooler by at least 5-10 degrees.

Next week, ensemble guidance still shows quite a bit of
variance in how far the upper trough progresses and whether or
not another trough pushes into the Western United States. As a
whole, the troughing should help keep temperatures a bit cooler
and close to average in the 60s and 70s. Low end chances for
precipitation are also forecast, with the main limiter currently
being how much moisture remains in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

GLD: VFR ceilings ~5000 ft AGL this evening are expected to
deteriorate to MVFR (~1500-2500 ft AGL) by sunrise (12Z) Wed
morning.. as low-level southerly return flow /warm advection/
strengthens over the region. Further deterioration to IFR
cannot be ruled-out during the mid-late morning. Ceilings are
expected to lift/scatter to VFR during the early-mid afternoon
(18-21Z). Light S to SE winds will increase to 12-20 knots by
late morning and further increase to 15-25 knots during the
afternoon. Breezy SE winds may persist through the remainder of
the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through sunrise Wednesday.
Strengthening low-level southerly return flow /warm advection/
may foster the development of MVFR ceilings at McCook during the
late morning to early afternoon (~15-18Z Wed). Sub-VFR
ceilings, if present, would likely lift to VFR (~3500 ft AGL)
during the early afternoon. Light/variable winds will shift to
the SSE-SE by sunrise, increasing to 12-20 knots by mid-late
morning (~15Z) and further increasing to 15-25 knots during the
afternoon. Breezy SE winds may persist through the remainder of
the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent