626
FXUS63 KGLD 170558
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1158 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms remain forecast This Evening and Tuesday.
  Tuesday continues to look like a more widespread event.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the
  upcoming weekend, including temperature near 105, which could
  break records.

- Critical fire weather potential increases later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A weak low situated over eastern Colorado this afternoon could
serve as a focusing mechanism for some convective activity in
the early evening hours. The convection will most likely form
along a weak dry line forming across far eastern Colorado and
a weak warm frontal boundary extending  The highest probability
for convective development will be in the evening hours
generally between 8 pm and midnight.  However, this development
is highly conditioned on temperatures warming enough to overcome
a weak mid-level capping inversion. The latest CAMS output does
show some development, but there is disagreement between the
various models on the extent of convective activity.  As a
result, confidence in overall thunderstorm coverage is lower
than average. At this time, some isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm activity is the most likely outcome for the evening
hours.  Model sounding information is supportive of strong to
severe wind gusts being the primary concern from any severe
thunderstorms that fire up.  After midnight, the convective
threat will wane rapidly as temperatures cool in relation to
convective cold pooling and the loss of diurnal heating.

Heading into tomorrow, the threat for severe storms is
substantially higher as a potent shortwave trough axis approaches
the forecast area from the west.  The combination of ample
instability and favorable 0-3km bulk shear values of 40 to 50
knots will support some severe thunderstorm activity.  The
convection will most likely develop initially in the late
afternoon hours across the northwest portion of the forecast
area in eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska where the
greatest upper level difluence and forcing will be tomorrow
afternoon.  As this convective activity strengthens, there
are indications that an MCV will begin to form over northeast
Colorado.  A potent QLCS should form along a strengthening
cold pool boundary and then follow the theta-e axis to the
southeast across the entire forecast area through the late
afternoon and early evening hours.  Model sounding analysis
indicates that the highest threat from these severe
thunderstorms will once again be strong to severe thunderstorm
wind gusts.  Once again, the cold pooling and loss of daytime
heating after midnight will lead to clearing and calmer
conditions for the late evening and overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will begin to build into
the area on Wednesday and will continue to strengthen and
dominate the forecast area through the weekend.  The end result
will be a much drier and hotter pattern.  The heat should peak
over the weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be
greatest across the region.  Model temperature spread is fairly
low, and there is a high degree of confidence that temperatures
will warm into the low to mid 100s this weekend.

Monday looks to be a transitional day as the ridge axis begins
to pull to the east.  Lowering heights and some weak positive
vorticity advection in advance of an approaching trough over
the Pacific Northwest could weaken the capping inversion just
enough to spark off some isolated convection.  However, there
is still very low confidence in the forecast for Monday, and
the rain threat could shift toward later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For KGLD... Skies are forecast to be clear for the first few
hours as storms have moved east of the terminal. As the night
goes on, another round of showers/storms is possible around
10-13Z, though the chances are only around 15% so it is not
included in TAF at this time. The continued moisture advection
is at least forecast to drop ceilings to around 1500-2500ft
around 11Z. The lower ceilings will then likely linger until
closer to 18Z when daytime heating could allow the cloud cover
to lift. A word of caution is that the low ceilings could last
until the next round of storms moves through, roughly around
00Z. The chances for this round of storms is higher and could be
severe with wind gusts in excess of 60 kts. The good news is
that once the storms pass (around 03Z), VFR conditions and
clearing skies are forecast. Winds should remain from the east
in the absence of storms until tomorrow night, then shifting to
out of the north.

For KMCK... Showers and storms are forecast to linger through
most of the night, though some breaks in-between rounds are
forecast. There could be times with one to two hours breaks in
the storms. A break in the showers/storms is forecast between
18-00Z, before another round/line of storms moves near the
terminal. There is a chance that the line of storms could move
over the terminal, with severe storms possible and wind gusts
exceeding 50 kts. Lower ceilings are also forecast to develop
around 2000ft. This should linger until about the 03-06Z
timeframe, when drier air will push in and allow for clear/VFR
conditions. Winds will generally be from the east in the absence
of storms, until after 03Z when winds will shift to out of the
north.&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLD
LONG TERM...GLD
AVIATION...GLD