970
FXUS63 KGLD 301112
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Tri-State Area
  until 18Z Friday.

- Fog chances continue through Sunday,

- 40-60% rain chances return today and Saturday morning.

- Early next week may see strong northwesterly winds and
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Through Sunday, the upper level pattern is not forecast to change
much. The area should remain under broad southwest flow aloft. At
the surface, low pressure should remain west of the area on the lee
of the rockies. This is forecast to keep the low level flow from the
south and southeast, with winds generally around 5-15 mph until
Sunday night. This setup should keep plenty of moisture moving into
the area, keeping fog chances in place over the area along with
mostly cloudy skies should the fog break. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect for the entire area through today at noon, though there may
be a few areas in Northwest Kansas that could keep the dense fog
into the early afternoon hours. Tonight into Saturday morning and
again Saturday night into Sunday morning have chances for dense fog
to develop across most of the area.

The main potential foil to the dense fog is that a shortwave is
forecast to move through the area today and provide chances for
rain. The main window for rain looks to be after 2pm today and
before midnight, but it could linger through the night if the
shortwave doesn`t progress through the area too quickly. Where rain
is tonight, fog will likely struggle to be dense. This looks to
favor mainly NW Kansas and SW Nebraska, with chances higher as you
go east given the easterly progression of the wave. Most of the rain
would likely fall in the form of weak showers with the continuous
cloud cover inhibiting convective instability and mid-level lapse
rates. Rainfall totals are forecast to range between a trace, to
maybe a few tenths.

Temperatures are not forecast to vary much from what we have seen
the last few days. Those who have fog linger late in the morning and
into the early afternoon hours will likely only reach the 50s. Those
who clear the fog and/or see peaks of sunshine should warm to near
or in the 60s. Overnight lows will continue to range from the upper
30s, to lower 50s depending on how low-level moisture moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main forecast highlights for Monday are wind and precipitation
potential.

We are forecast to be in a weak, mostly southwest flow aloft with a
weak jet streak overhead. Previous model runs showed a much stronger
jet streak over our area. There is also a weak trough just west of
the Rocky Mountains with a second deeper trough digging over the
Pacific. A strong cold front is forecast to move in from the
northwest setting the stage for a potential high wind day for the
county warning area (CWA). A surface low will set up sometime Monday
afternoon, but modes diverge on its location, creating uncertainty
in the forecast. ECMWF ensembles have the low setting up somewhere
in Nebraska while GFS ensembles forecast the low in northwest Kansas
or southwest Nebraska. Canadian ensembles are split roughly 50/50
between the ECMWF and GFS solutions. Another notable difference in
ensembles is the GFS is showing a much deeper surface low, which is
supportive of a tighter pressure gradient and stronger wind
potential. So while there is uncertainty in the low location, we
have all the necessary ingredients for a high wind day, the
intensity is the main question. Where the low sets up and how strong
it becomes will determine the severity of the winds. Sky cover will
be another factor. Clear skies will allow stronger synoptic
winds to mix down to the surface, while cloudy skies will serve
as a barrier for stronger winds to make it to the surface.

Winds are expected to pick up in the afternoon after the cold front
from the northwest moves through. The entire CWA should expect to
see windy conditions, but the counties along and west of the
Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska borders will see the strongest winds with
gusts up to 60 mph possible. The eastern CWA could see gusts up to
40 mph.

Precipitation wise, showers and storms are expected to fire off in
the afternoon following the morning cold frontal passage. Southwest
flow aloft will send several embedded shortwaves and associated
vorticity maxima across the CWA Monday afternoon. Probability of
Precipitation (PoPs) are around 50-75%, increasing from west to
east. The western CWA will likely receive just rain, while the
eastern CWA has enough instability to support a weak thunderstorm or
two.

Blowing dust will be something to keep an eye out for Monday. Lapse
rates are not supportive of dust being lofted, and the recent
stretch of dense fog will help keep the ground saturated.
Precipitation will also help limit the potential for blowing dust,
although PoPs for eastern Colorado are only around 50%. Areas that
miss out on Monday`s precipitation will be a concern for blowing
dust if they can dry out enough.

Tuesday is forecast to be another windy day as another jet streak
scrapes the CWA. While not as strong, wind gusts up to 50 mph are
still possible for the western CWA. This will really depend on what
the upper-level flow does Monday and where the jet sets up. Models
diverge on the pattern aloft after Monday, so the jet streak could
shift south of our area, diminishing the wind threat. Blowing
dust is also on the table, but how Monday pans out will
determine the threat.

Temperatures for the long term period are fairly consistent.
Monday`s highs are forecast in the 50s to 60s with potential for the
far eastern CWA to see some 70s. Tuesday through Friday, expect high
temperatures in the 50s with lows in the 30s to 40s. Our eastern
Colorado counties could see lows around freezing through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Dense fog and ceilings around 100-500ft are
forecast through 18Z. There is the possibility that the dense
fog could linger until 21Z. If the fog doesn`t linger, ceilings
will likely lift to around 1000ft, with a 20% chance for VFR
conditions. This reprieve should be short lived with the
ceilings lowering around 00-03Z to back around 200-600ft. Dense
fog will then be possible again after 06Z. Winds should remain
steady from roughly the south at around 10 kts as we get later
into the morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...KAK