909
FXUS63 KGLD 291123
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
523 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog possible through the morning with a locally dense
  fog possible east of Highway 25.

- Severe storm potential continues Friday and possibly Saturday
  primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Little change in the pattern through the weekend with slightly
  below normal temperatures and daily chances for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

As of 2:30 AM MDT, showers and storms are moving east-southeast
along and south of Highway 40 while areas of patchy to dense fog
sets in along and east of Kansas Highway 25. Fog may linger through
the mid morning hours looking at the HRRR and RAP model guidance.
Clouds cover is expected to become more scattered from west to east
during the afternoon hours allowing temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for highs.

Looking at today`s storm potential, isolated to scattered storms
will be possible mainly after 4 PM MDT through the overnight hours.
The first wave of activity should develop off the Front Range and
Palmer Divide before moving east into the county warning area.
Looking at NAMnest, HRRR, and RRFS guidance most favor ample
instability with 1000-1800 J/kg of MLCAPE (Convective Available
Potential Energy) and lapse rates at the 500-700 mb of 5.5-6.5 C/km
and 0-3 km closer to 7.5-8.5 C/km. Shear still looks to be decent
with 35-45 kts of effective shear and 20-30 kts of 0-3 km shear. A
limiting factor with the winds is the sharp change in wind direction
around 750 mb as seen on the soundings from the HRRR and NAMnest.
This could keep the wind threat lower with gusts to 60 mph. The
Primary hazard is hail up to two inches. The second wave of showers
and storms currently looks like it would move south to east-
southeast from Nebraska into the Tri-State area after 9 PM MDT/10 PM
CDT as the cold front pushes into the area. The severe risk seems
fairly low with this round, but small hail and gusts to 60 mph can`t
be ruled out. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 50s
to lower 60s tonight.

Saturday morning the cold front will continue to move over the area
as the parent surface low moves into Eastern Nebraska. Upper level
flow will be nearly zonal to northwest as the upper level trough
axis moves over the High Plains. Scattered showers may linger behind
the cold front through the morning before another round of showers
and storms develops near the Rockies and into the Tri-State area
during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Saturday, the surface low pressure across the northern Plains
is forecast to move southward into the forecast area leading to
another chance for showers and storms starting during the late
afternoon and possibly throughout the night for the area. Some
severe threat may be able to materialize across the area with
better CAPE than the previous days and wind shear of 30-40 knots
in place. The severe threat may be dictated by how long Friday
night`s showers and storms remain in the area and if the
atmosphere is able to recover to realize those high of CAPE
values. The surface low continues to spin and moves slowly to
the south throughout the day Sunday as well ejecting multiple
vorticity maxima through the area continuing hit and miss rain
chances especially for eastern portions of the area through the
day Sunday. Due to the proximity of the low and cooler air at
the surface and aloft would not be surprised if a couple of
funnel clouds were to form. 12Z NAM shows a 700mb jet of around
30-35 knots which if enough mixing were to occur breezy winds
may be able to be realized; would like to see some better
consistency with guidance regarding this feature before
adjusting the forecast for this. Ridging is forecast to return
to the western CONUS and with the eastern periphery of the ridge
a bit elongated to the east should help keep western portions
of the forecast area dry.

A similar pattern to Sunday is forecast to ensue into the
middle portion of the work week with off and on chances for
rain remaining across the east as the area warms into the low to
mid 80s due to the ridge continuing to amplify. Mid week; very
good consensus with ensembles of a strong cold front pushing
through the area. Main deterministic guidance varies on the
positioning, but as this appears to be of Arctic origin these
cold fronts normally end up setting up further to the west. With
this in mind would not be surprised to see high and low
temperatures end up in the lower echelon of the forecast
envelope with highs in the low 60s and overnight lows in the low
to mid 40s. At this time its hard to see if this will be a dry
front or if precipitation will form along it as guidance is all
of the place with timing. Timing again will be key and also how
much precipitation falls this week. 12Z ECMWF ensemble guidance
suggests with the members that brings the cold front through
further to the west and actually has it the coldest has the
front moving through between 18Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday
which if soil moisture responds correctly then blowing dust may
be a concern, but it was way to early to know for certain as
this is still 5+ days out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Low ceilings are generally trending lower across the region
with prevailing MVFR conditions ongoing at KGLD and IFR at KMCK.
The best chance for LIFR conditions is at KMCK closer to
sunrise this morning as patchy fog develops over the terminal
through ~16-18Z. Conditions across the region will improve with
daytime heating though more showers and storms are possible this
afternoon ~22Z through the overnight hours as a cold front moves
south over the Central High Plains. Overall coverage is still in
question, so for now have both terminals in PROB30 groups for
storms. Primary hazard is large hail up to two inches with heavy
rain and wind gusts to 60 mph also possible.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KMK