907
FXUS63 KGLD 171839
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are forecast to impact the area this afternoon
  and evening.  These severe storms have the potential to produce
  damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, large hail over 2 inches
  in diameter, and maybe a tornado or two. The threat of intense
  winds of 70 to 100 mph has decreased.

- Localized dust storms could accompany the severe storms, but the
  threat of a wall of dust has decreased.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An upper level low currently moving through Colorado has started
to produce additional convective activity across eastern Colorado.
This convection will spread eastward through the late afternoon
and evening hours and will bring a risk of severe storms to the
area.  Fortunately, the rainfall this morning has resulted in
less overall instability, and this will keep thunderstorm activity
less intense than originally forecast. However, severe storms will
still be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail
as a region of enhanced upper level difluence and forcing slides
through the forecast area.  The threat will be conditioned on the
amount of warming that occurs this afternoon. By late evening,
the best dynamics will start to shift to the east, and the severe
threat should quickly come to an end across the area.  The remainder
of the forecast remains on track for late tonight through early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Current observations show a surface low near the KS/CO border,
with the wrap around side around the Tri-State border. Storms
have been steadily progressing east out of the area along the
Highway 24 corridor. With the northern part of the area still on
the wrap around side of the low and 850mb charts suggesting
more moisture is being pulled in, additional showers and storms
are expected through the early morning hours. Severe weather
will remain possible with MUCAPE around 3000 J/KG, effective
shear between 40-65 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 8-9
C/KM. The main thing that should limit storm coverage and keep
severe to be more isolated is that convective inhibition has
been setting in. Otherwise, some patchy fog may develop, mainly
in the southwestern portions of the area that have less storm
outflow interference.

For the daytime hours, mostly cloudy skies are forecast with
storms lingering in and near the area through much of the
morning. Temperatures are also forecast to be cooler today
compared to yesterday in the 70s and 80s with the additional
cloud cover and 850mb temps around 20C. Winds are forecast to
remain from the east during the day around 10-15 mph.

During the afternoon and evening hours, another round of storms
and severe weather is forecast for the area. An upper shortwave
is forecast to push through the Rockies and over the area
during the afternoon hours. With the shortwave moving through, a
more organized cluster of storms is forecast to develop in
Northeastern Colorado and push through the area. This line could
potentially stretch across the whole area if there are storms
ongoing in Western Nebraska that push forward with the line. If
the line does form as guidance is suggesting, that significant
wind gusts potentially up to 90 mph would be possible. With this
line, there could be some embedded stronger storms or
supercells, though hail would likely cap at 2 inches due to the
high shear and quick storm motion limiting how organized storms
can get. If storms manage to form ahead of the line, then the
environment could support up to 3 inch hail, though the forecast
convective inhibition due to the cloud cover makes this
unlikely. If the clouds break, then be aware for the isolated
storms that could produce very large hail. A few QLCS tornadoes
could be possible within the line as the mean wind ahead of the
line in the lower levels is forecast to be perpendicular to the
line orientation. Unfortunately, an organized line could also
allow for a wall of dust to develop ahead of the line as storms
recently have been able to produce dust along storm outflows.
With a more organized line, this could be similar to a few weeks
ago when an organized line move north through Northwestern
Kansas with a wall of dust ahead. The time frame for the main
line is mainly between 2pm MT and 8pm MT, moving from west to
east through the area. There could be pop up storms through the
day. The event should be finished by 9pm MT, as slightly drier
air moves in and helps clear most of the instability in the
area.

It is worth noting that an alternate scenario is possible where
the cloud cover is too persistent or isolated storms continue
to fire during the day that interrupts the main line. In this
scenario, the severe weather coverage would likely be much more
sporadic and with severe intensity lower short of maybe hail.
Blowing dust would be more likely to be nuisance and isolated
with the individual storms. Currently, this scenario only looks
to be a 20% chance of occurring.

For the late evening and night hours, skies are forecast to
slowly clear as the storms push east of the area. Winds are also
forecast to be from the north and slowly lower to either calm
or 5-10 mph. With these conditions, lows are forecast to drop
into the 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will begin to build into
the area on Wednesday and will continue to strengthen and
dominate the forecast area through the weekend.  The end result
will be a much drier and hotter pattern.  The heat should peak
over the weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be
greatest across the region.  Model temperature spread is fairly
low, and there is a high degree of confidence that temperatures
will warm into the low to mid 100s this weekend.

Monday looks to be a transitional day as the ridge axis begins
to pull to the east.  Lowering heights and some weak positive
vorticity advection in advance of an approaching trough over
the Pacific Northwest could weaken the capping inversion just
enough to spark off some isolated convection.  However, there
is still very low confidence in the forecast for Monday, and
the rain threat could shift toward later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025


At GLD, the primary concern will be the potential for redeveloping
thunderstorm activity capable of producing periods of IFR visibilities
and lower ceilings to around 2000 feet.  Gusty winds over 40 knots
could also be a concern as the storms move through.  The primary
threat for thunderstorm activity at GLD will be between 23z and 02z
once temperatures rise enough to support additional convective
development.  By 03z, the convective threat should be over and a
much drier and more stable airmass will begin to move into the area.
This will result in prevailing VFR conditions from 03z through the
end of the TAF period.

At MCK, the convective threat is substantially lower this afternoon
into this evening due to the very stable rain-cooled airmass in place.
Full recovery is not expected this afternoon, so there is no mention
of thunderstorms in the forecast.  At most, some passing light rain
showers could push visibility down to MVFR range for a few hours
between 01z and 06z. Light boundary layer flow around daybreak
tomorrow will combine with higher soil moisture content to support
some patchy fog development between 10z and 14z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GLD
SHORT TERM...GLD
LONG TERM...GLD
AVIATION...GLD