462
FXUS63 KGLD 141730
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy SW winds expected across portions of the area through early
  this afternoon, strongest east of Hwy 83 (Oakley/Hill City)
  where sustained winds ~25-35 mph may gust up to 50 mph before
  weakening during the late afternoon.

- A severe storm or two is possible this afternoon, mainly east
  and south of Colby, KS between 3-9 PM CDT. Localized wind
  gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. An instance of dime
  to quarter size hail is also possible. Moderate (50-60%)
  confidence in storm development and timing.

- An early morning cold frontal passage will bring much cooler
  temperatures to the area Tue-Tue night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Strong upper system moving through the Northern Plains will
provide weak synoptic scale lift further south, but enough for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A
stationary front located long the southern part of the area
(Hill City to Leoti), will also provide additional lift. Main
hazard today will be wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and perhaps
localized blowing dust, with a hot, deeply mixed environment
promoting favorable DCAPE. Instability will be maximized near
the front, up to 1500 j/kg, but deep layer shear in that area
will only be around 20 kts. Nonetheless, can`t rule out a brief
stronger updraft producing hail up to quarter size near the
front. Storms move out fairly quickly as the upper support fades
by around 04-05z. Overnight, cold front associated with the
northern system will enter southwest Nebraska by around 09z and
should be through the remainder of the area by 12-13z. Moisture
pooling along the front may result in a narrow band of fog and
low clouds that accompany frontal passage.

Tuesday will be mostly to partly cloudy with rising heights in
the afternoon as the upper ridge rebuilds from the south. This
will result in dry conditions through the day. However, there
will be a chance for showers late Tuesday night with a favorable
southwest low level jet and associated isentropic lift.
Confidence is somewhat low as some CAMs suggest that
precipitation may remain just south or east of the area. MUCAPE
overnight is forecast to be 500-1000 j/kg, so not expecting any
severe threat at this time.

For Wednesday and Thursday, southwest flow will develop around
the ridge centered over Arkansas. Embedded waves will result in
afternoon thunderstorms developing in southeast Colorado and
the Front Range which move into the area both nights. Some
afternoon development is possible on Thursday in northeast
Colorado as well. Instability and shear forecasts are weak and
the probability for severe weather will be low. QPF forecasts
are generally less than a quarter of an inch.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be much cooler behind the front
with highs in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures quickly rebound
on Wednesday and Thursday however with highs in the 80s on
Wednesday and lower 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Wednesday morning, ensembles are favoring a strong 500-mb high
across the Southeastern United States, with troughing to the
west. At the same time, a strong surface high supported by an
active jet stream looks to be located in the Great Lakes Region.
These features are favored to remain in place through Friday.
Southerly flow would be expected across the Great Plains between
the southeastern high and western trough, however the surface
high in the Great Lakes Region is forecast to support easterly
surface flow across Kansas. Warm, wet conditions look to be in
place across the area Wednesday through Friday as a result of
this pattern. High temperatures all three days are in the upper
70s to mid 80s. It`s important to note that NBM 75th percentile
and higher scenarios show highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
Thursday and Friday. This could occur if the southerly flow can
reach further north into Southern Nebraska, or if solar heating
can develop. Even so, rain is in the forecast, as NBM 24 hr
precipitation guidance shows a 40% chance or greater of
receiving more than 0.1 inches of rain both Wednesday and
Thursday across most of the forecast area. These probabilities
are highest along a line from Norton, KS to Tribune, KS
Wednesday (50-70%), and in Northeastern Colorado and far
Southwestern Nebraska Thursday (60- 75%). Most of this activity
is forecast to be widespread rain rather than localized
convective storms, the exception being Wednesday. LREF guidance
suggests a 40-55% chance across most of the forecast area of
experiencing surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability)
greater than 1000 J/kg Wednesday evening. Some higher end
scenarios (90th percentile and greater) show CAPE may rise above
2000 J/kg. Even so, this convective activity is not favored to
be severe, as GFS and EC soundings show sfc-6km shear remaining
below 30 kts during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence
in severe weather occurring Wednesday is 5% or less.

The forecast begins to become a bit more uncertain by Saturday
morning, specifically regarding the trough to the west of the
forecast area. This feature is expected to be moving slowly
eastward throughout the long term period, though guidance is
inconsistent on when it will move over the forecast area.
However, once it moves over the area, temperatures may drop a
bit more, in addition to precipitation chances. This is
represented in the forecast temperatures for both Saturday and
Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Additionally, NBM 24
hr precipitation guidance drops the probabilities for greater
than 0.1 inches of rain below 40% on Sunday. These probabilities
are a little higher on Saturday, but is likely due to a higher
chance that the trough is still west of the forecast area on
Saturday. In other words, conditions similar to Wednesday
through Friday are expected as long as the trough stays to the
west of the forecast area. However, once it moves in over the
region, temperatures and precipitation would likely drop off a
little bit.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening have a 30%
chance of impacting both KGLD and KMCK with brief gusty winds as
well as reduced visibility in rain. Towards early Tuesday
morning, a cold front will shift winds to the northeast as well
as bring a period of low clouds and perhaps some fog, mainly at
KGLD. Fog and low clouds are less certain at KMCK. The fog will
likely be transient and only last for a few hours immediately
behind the front, but the low clouds may persist through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024