785
FXUS63 KGLD 291800
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1200 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance for a late afternoon/evening severe storm will
  persist over the weekend. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and quarter
  size hail are the main threats.

- Chances for severe weather continue Sunday and maybe into
  Monday. The overall chance is 10% and favors western portions
  of the area. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail around an
  inch are the main hazards.

- Warming through the weekend, with highs in the upper 90`s to
  lower 100`s on Sat-Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Current observations show the upper ridge in place over the Plains
with a surface low pressure system over the area. While the upper
ridge axis is slightly east of the area, we still have
southerly/westerly low level flow bringing in warmer air. With this,
most of the area had warmed into the 90s during the morning hours.
Temperatures around 100 remain forecast for this afternoon with
mostly clear skies.

That being said, the presence of the low pressure system and some
low level moisture will give us chances for storms this afternoon
and evening. Storms may develop as early as 1-3pm MT for counties
along the Colorado border, likely along the convergence zone created
by the low. These initial storms would likely struggle to maintain
themselves in an environment with 0-6km shear around 20-30 kts. So
while unlikely to be severe at this point, keep an eye out for small
hail and wind gusts in the 40-60 mph range. The better chance for
storms will be this evening with storms that develop along the Front
Range and Palmer Divide. The 0-6km shear is forecast to increase as
the surface low/front sag a little further south with values around
35-45 kts. With mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km, any storm
that forms should have a better shot of holding together. The main
thing keeping POPs low is the instability may be less than 1000 J/kg
if too much dry air filters in from the west. Otherwise, storms that
form should push through the area with a strong convergence zone
along the front and a low level jet ahead of the front providing
extra support. Wind gusts to 70 mph are the main concern as storms
are forecast to cluster, but maybe a stronger embedded storm could
produce hail around an inch. With the precipitation and additional
cloud cover, lows in the eastern parts of the area will likely be in
the 70s. Those who see breaks in the cloud cover earlier in the
night should cool into the 60s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge is forecast to slide further east while an
upper trough moves into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. At
the surface, the main low and front are forecast to slide southeast
of the area. However, low pressure is forecast to remain in place
across much of the region and keep winds on the lighter side. It is
also forecast to keep some of the heat in the area with temperatures
warming into the 90s and 100s.

Storms are possible again during the afternoon and evening hours as
the upper trough axis swings through the region. While we have the
forcing and mid to upper level moisture streaming in from the
southwest, low level moisture is forecast to be lacking and keeping
our overall instability low. This is forecast to lead to mostly sub-
severe showers and storms that move in from the southwest. There
could still be a couple instances of wind gusts up to 70 mph, but
the overall severe coverage should be limited. With the upper trough
and surface low over the area, storms may be able to move across the
area and through most of the nighttime hours. The chances for this
will increase if the frontal boundary retrogrades north a bit and
allows the low level jet to nose into the area.

Monday, the forecast is for the upper trough over the Northern
Plains to remain roughly in place while another trough starts moving
onto the West Coast. This is forecast to keep the upper ridging over
the east and allow for slightly cooler temperatures with highs
generally in the 90s. Winds are also forecast to remain light with
broad low pressure remaining in place across the region.

We have yet another chance for showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours as we remain in southwest flow aloft and
continue to have mid to upper level moisture stream over the area.
That being said, it looks like the overall forcing over the area is
going to be a bit weaker and limit storm potential and coverage.
Should storms form, they will likely form southwest of the area
before moving in. The shear is forecast to be around 40 kts, but
instability is currently a bit lacking both with CAPE around 1000
J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. Should this hold,
there may be one to two instances of severe weather with both large
hail and wind gusts around 60-70 mph possible. However, the overall
chance is less than 10%. There is a chance that the upper trough
over the Plains mag dig south and try and provide a bit more
forcing. Even then, chances currently don`t look like they would be
much higher. The main change is that storms could cover more of the
area instead of likely staying over the western half.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent with
unseasonably hot temperatures and evening storm chances due to
our region being in a persistent southwest upper-level flow.
Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast in the 80s to
upper 90s. Wednesday through Friday, highs are currently
forecast in the high 90s with LREF ensemble members showing at
least a 20% chance of high exceeding 100 degrees F for our
Kansas and Nebraska counties.

Our persistent southwest upper-level flow will send several
embedded shortwaves, bringing precipitation chances each evening
Monday through Friday. Monday is looking to be out best chance
for precipitation with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from
30-60%, increasing from east to west. Models are showing a
marginally unstable environment with less than 1000 J/Kg of
CAPE, around 30 knots of shear and mid-low level lapse rates
less than 7 C/km. Model soundings are showing precipitable water
(PWAT) values greater than 1 inch and overall skinny CAPE
profiles, so heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible
with severe or sub- severe storms. Small hail and strong winds
could be a concern with stronger storms if they are able to
form. Tuesday onward, evening PoPs are around 20% for the area
with low confidence in severe weather occurring.

Despite unseasonably hot temperatures, fire weather concerns
are minimal through the long term period. Relative humidity (RH)
values are forecast above 20% for the CWA. Winds will remain
overall light with gusts maxing out around 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites
through the period. Winds are forecast to be light and variable
through about 06-09Z with a low pressure system over the area.
After that, winds should stabilize from the northwest at 5-10
kts. Between 21-09Z, there is a chance that a thunderstorm or
two could move over either of the terminals. The storms would
likely move in from the west/southwest if they form. Be alert
for wind gusts of 40-60 kts should a storm pass over. Finally,
the last condition of note is low level wind shear around
400-600ft with the low level jet strengthening to around 45 kts.
The chance that either site is impacted is low as the front
should keep the jet just south of the terminal, but the best
window for low level wind shear is around 03-09Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...KAK