734
FXUS63 KGLD 061834
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1234 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday, though
  confidence is on the low side at this time.

- Fog may develop once again tonight and Sunday morning, and
  potentially Sunday night and Monday morning.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A cut off low in the southern Plains today is being picked up
by an approaching shortwave trough in the northern Rockies.
CAMs show convection developing along the Front Range this
afternoon with upslope flow as well as across southern Kansas
with the southern system. It does not appear that storms will
make it into the local area from either of those sources as they
gradually dissipate this evening with loss of surface heating.
Moist southerly flow continues tonight with low clouds and fog
developing in the overnight hours. Models point to the Kansas
and Colorado border area for the best potential for fog, which
could be dense once again. The low clouds and fog will gradually
burn off through Sunday morning.

Shortwave ridging will build over eastern Colorado and western
Kansas on Sunday, ahead of the strong system over the northern
Rockies. CAMs show widely scattered convection developing along
the Front Range in the afternoon once again, but also possibly
along the lee trough which will be further east in the plains.
Instability and shear will be very weak further west, but if a
storm manages to develop on the lee trough it would be closer to
the better instability and shear in place near the Kansas
border. Confidence is low in that scenario given the overall
lack of forcing, and only the 3-km NAM shows an isolated updraft
developing further east at this time. The isolated storm
chances in western areas should end by 03z with loss of
heating. A surface low is forecast to move from northeast
Colorado to near Goodland Sunday night. May see low clouds and
fog develop once again overnight and Monday morning with
moisture advecting in from the southeast into Kansas and
Nebraska, but westerly winds in Colorado and immediate adjacent
counties in Kansas/Nebraska my prevent it from forming in those
areas.

The surface low is forecast to move south and be in the Oklahoma
and Texas panhandle by Monday afternoon. The central plains will
have easterly upslope flow on the north side of the low. Aloft
will be increasing southwesterly flow between a ridge over Texas
and a strengthening closed low over Saskatchewan. There does
appear to be a weak embedded wave in the afternoon that will
provide some synoptic scale lift. Instability will be strongest
east of Highway 25 where 2000-3000 j/kg is forecast, weakening
to less than 1000 j/kg at the Colorado and Kansas border and
further weakening in Colorado. Deep layer shear will be 30-40
kts with the increasing flow aloft and directional shear. So, if
convection can develop the environment is supportive of
supercells, especially in the better instability to the east.
RRFS and REFS suggest a dry line will develop near Highway 27
which initiates convection, but the 3-km NAM has the dry line much
further east into Colorado with little to no convection in the
area. NBM is more supportive of the NAM at this time with broad
southeasterly flow all the way to the Front Range. So unless the
dry line is in the area as depicted by the RRFS the only
forcing for initiation will have to come from the weak wave
aloft. Given all of the uncertainty, confidence is on the low
side regarding severe potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

***Synopsis***

Monday morning, ridging is favored overhead at 500-mb. This
looks to transition into southwesterly flow as broad troughing
develops across the Western United States throughout the day.
GEFS and EC 500- mb mean-spread guidance favors this upper-level
pattern to persist through the end of the forecast period. A
shortwave system embedded in this southwesterly flow looks to
impact the forecast region Tuesday through Thursday as well.

***Monday***

A surface low pressure traversing the forecast area Monday
morning may support northerly surface winds early in the day,
though GEFS and EC members suggest the formation of a weak,
broad surface low across the west during the afternoon. This
would allow surface winds to have a southerly component by the
evening hours. Even so, high temperatures on Monday are still
forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Showers may develop across
portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening as well. The
favored zone for convection appears to be along a warm front
associated with the initial surface low passing through the
area. LREF guidance suggests that these showers may be
associated with up to 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE (a measure
of atmospheric instability). However, the same guidance
suggests 90th percentile 500-mb winds around 30 kts. While
organized thunderstorms could develop, vertical wind shear may
be lacking. If this is the case, convective mode would likely
stick to thunderstorms that are strong around the time of
initiation, but are brief in nature. Still, severe weather is
possible if 90th percentile or higher winds at 500-mb can be
experienced. GFS model soundings are suggestive of SHIP
(significant hail parameter) values around 1.5, which could
support 2-inch hail in the strongest thunderstorms. Confidence
in a severe weather event on Monday rests around 5-10%.

***Tuesday - Wednesday Evening***

Southerly flow is forecast to remain in place through Wednesday
afternoon ahead of the strong upper-level shortwave trough.
Forecast guidance suggests high temperatures will be hot, with
much of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska between 100 and
105 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. While the southerly return
flow is favored to contain moisture, hot temperatures could keep
relative humidity (RH) values low. Forecast guidance suggests
RH will drop into the low to mid teens Tuesday, and upper
single- digits to mid teens Wednesday. Critical fire weather
conditions may be in place both days. NBM guidance suggests
greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph
Tuesday and Wednesday across much of the County Warning Area
(CWA). This is in addition to LREF guidance suggesting a 30-50%
chance for RH values to drop into criteria for critical fire
weather across Eastern Colorado Tuesday. Dry conditions may
stretch further east Wednesday, as portions of Southwest
Nebraska and Northwest Kansas also have a 30-50% chance for RH
meeting criteria for the hazard, and up to a 75% chance in
portions of Eastern Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed is highest on Wednesday, around 30%.

***Wednesday Night - Friday***

Passage of the upper-level shortwave trough looks to promote a
cold front overnight Wednesday, allowing slightly cooler
temperatures through the remainder of the week. High
temperatures are forecast in the lower to upper 90s Thursday,
and mid 80s to lower 90s Friday. Critical fire weather
conditions may linger into Thursday, with forecast RH values in
the low to mid teens. However, wind gusts do not look to be as
high as Tuesday and Wednesday, with the current forecast in the
20-30 mph range. NBM guidance does still suggest around a 2/3
chance or greater for wind gusts to exceed criteria (25 mph or
greater) for critical fire weather across Eastern Colorado, but
less across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Confidence
in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is much
lower than Tuesday and Wednesday, around 10%. Cooler conditions
on Friday lower the risk for critical fire weather even further.
Chances for precipitation may increase on Friday as well, as
troughing continues to exist to the west. NBM 24-hr
precipitation guidance suggests up to a 25% chance for greater
than 0.1 inches of rain across portions of Northwest Kansas from
Friday`s activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area but with
increasing moisture through the night am monitoring for fog and
stratus overnight. Confidence is highest at MCK for IFR to LIFR
ceilings and some fog. GLD is a bit more conditional as the
signal has consistently remained around 30-60 miles north of
the terminal but an over performance of dew points currently
has my attention. Will leave GLD VFR for now but will watch
closely over the next few hours. Fog and stratus are forecast to
dissipate mid morning but winds are forecast to increase late
morning and through the early evening hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024