562
FXUS63 KGLD 262337
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm temperatures continue into tomorrow, reaching
   into the 80s during the day and falling to the 50s/60s
   overnight.

 - Although not critical, breezy conditions and drier relative
   humidity bring an elevated fire weather concern along/west
   US-385 into tomorrow.

 - Chances of rain increase Monday evening to as much as a
   medium to likely (40-90%) chance late Monday night, bringing
   the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon near/west US-385,
resulting from a 1015-1020 mb surface high over the Colorado
Rockies, gradually ease to light and variable overnight tonight
as a ridge axis, extending from a high pressure aloft moving
over northeastern Mexico, exits the Rockies to the High Plains
by tomorrow morning, maintaining dry conditions through at least
tomorrow night. Meanwhile, pressure falls expand eastward
across the Rockies late tonight into tomorrow, downstream of a
mid/upper level trough arriving over the West Coast. This should
veer and enhance surface winds tomorrow morning to southeasterly
around 10-20 mph, gusting to 15-30+ mph, by tomorrow afternoon,
highest again near/west US-385, where winds continue veering
and increasing tomorrow night to near 20-25 mph, gusting to
30-40+ mph, out of the south, by Monday morning, persisting
through the afternoon, while southwesterly flow takes over
aloft. Relative humidity values remain just above Fire Danger
Statement criteria, though caution is urged if handling outdoor
flames, particularly in the areas already mentioned.

All the while, low and mid-level moisture, part of which is
anticipated to be of tropical origin, streaming northeastward
off the eastern Pacific, is anticipated to pool ahead of and
along a mid-level shortwave trough beginning to arrive to the
region by Monday evening. This should aid in weakening southerly
surface winds as well build chances of rain Monday evening from
a low (10-15%) chance during the daytime to as high as a medium
to high (40-90%) along/east US-385, highest along/east US-83,
late Monday night while points further west increase to a low to
medium (20-40%) chance. We currently anticipate for the
shortwave`s attendant cold front to begin pushing into the eastern
Colorado counties, shifting and increasing winds to northwesterly
by Tuesday morning.

Additionally, the latest deterministic short term high resolution
and long term models continue to disagree with the time of arrival
in both the unsettled weather and ensuing cold front. Rainfall
totals by Tuesday morning are currently anticipated to range
from little to none along/west US-385 to near 0.15-0.40 inch
further east. The NBM suggests a 15-30% probability of totals
surpassing 1.00 inch along/east US-83, north of US-36, which is
possible given the well-above 90th percentile precipitable
water values Monday and Monday night, around 1.3-1.6+ in.,
bringing the possibility of heavy rain. At this time,
thunderstorms are likely to be sub-severe, though bulk shear
values of 20-30 knots and surface/most unstable CAPE look to
fall within the range of 500-2,000+ J/Kg, which could result in
some stronger storms, producing small hail, frequent lightning
and heavy rain, especially if activity arrives earlier Monday
afternoon. Yet, given building cloud cover and unsupportive mid-
level lapse rates, confidence is 30% regarding this potential.

Otherwise, the transition from downslope to upslope winds tomorrow
slightly cools high temperatures from widespread low/mid 80s today
to the upper 70s and low/mid 80s tomorrow, followed by mid/upper 70s
to near 80 on Monday as cloud coverage builds. Overnight lows in the
50s and low 60s persist, warming a degree or two each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A trough is favored to be trekking across the Southern and Central
United States Tuesday morning, with an active jet streak to the
north. A cold front is forecast to come through the area sometime
during the morning and afternoon. LREF standard deviation in wind
direction shows large amounts of spread south and east of a line
from Cheyenne Wells, CO to Stratton, NE around noon. This would
indicate that the cold front would be along or southeast of this
line as well. High temperatures are currently forecast in the low to
mid 70s across the forecast area. Precipitation appears likely along
the front, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests that most of
the area has greater than a 50% chance of receiving greater than 0.1
inches of rain, with portions of Gove and Graham Counties in Kansas
around an 80% chance. The only area at less than 50% is portions of
Yuma County in Colorado and far northwest Dundy County in Nebraska.
LREF guidance shows all areas having less than a 25% chance of
seeing surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) greater
than 1000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon and evening, which would suggest
that this precipitation would be linked to widespread rain as
opposed to convective thunderstorms. The exception to this would be
if the cold front can manage to come through during the later
afternoon or evening. NBM 75th percentile and higher solutions show
temperatures in the upper 70s or higher for highs, which could
correspond with this scenario. This would allow for extra
instability and a higher chance for thunderstorms to develop.
However, this is not the favored solution, as rain is primarily
expected to exist ahead of the cold front, which would minimize
temperatures and prevent more significant instability.

Cool and wet conditions are expected to continue going into
Wednesday in association with the trough approaching from the west.
Uncertainty continues to remain as to how fast this feature will
move eastward. Ensembles show the trough centered in one of the 4-
Corners States with a large amount of spread on the trailing edge,
which would indicate a slower progression. Guidance also continues
to show a modest 40-50 kt jet streak curved cyclonically around the
base of the trough, which would favor a surface low developing in
the Southern High Plains. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
indicates this surface low may be very slow moving, and perhaps
stationary Wednesday and Thursday in association with the slow-
moving trough. This would create the potential for several days of
precipitation. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows most of the
area higher than a 70% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain
Wednesday, with a 40-45% chance on Thursday. Additionally, higher
end (90th percentile and higher) 48 hr precipitation scenarios show
between 3 and 4 inches of rain between Wednesday and Thursday. This
is a low confidence scenario (5%), but could lead to some localized
flash flooding if it occurs.

It should also be noted that the surface low may deepen enough to
where northerly winds sustained at 15-20 kts are possible Wednesday
and Thursday afternoon, particularly across portions of Eastern
Colorado and far Western Counties in Kansas where NBM guidance shows
a 40% chance or greater for such a solution. While highs are
currently forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we may see a broad
area of highs in the low to mid 60s due to the strong northerly
winds and rain. NBM guidance suggests about a 15-30% chance across
most of the forecast area that highs are below 65 F.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Friday morning, as ensembles are
inconsistent on whether the trough will be through the area or not.
If the trough remains in the area, conditions similar to Wednesday
and Thursday could be experienced. However, if the trough is through
the area, warm and dry conditions are possible. An active jet streak
to the north may also introduce a more active weather pattern to the
forecast area, with EC and LREF ensemble 500-mb mean heights showing
a northwesterly flow coming into the forecast area. This would
suggest the potential for meandering temperatures as well as on and
off precipitation with shortwave systems.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at both KGLD and KMCK, with
light winds expected throughout the TAF period. Guidance is
indicating IFR and possibly LIFR conditions to develop for KMCK
between 08 and 10Z due to low stratus. There is a chance for fog as
well, however a lack of sufficient southeasterly winds seems to
favor the low stratus. The question for KGLD is whether low stratus
will reach the airport, but current guidance seems to favor VFR
conditions lasting through the period. Stratus is favored to lift by
16Z at KMCK, transitioning back into VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Irish
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Davis