617
FXUS63 KGLD 121929
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
129 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively breezy conditions expected through mid-week.

- Monday will be hot ahead of a cold front that brings much
  cooler conditions for Tuesday-Wednesday. Portions of the area
  may see lows dip into the upper 40s Wednesday morning.

- Scattered strong storms may develop along this front Monday
  evening. Gusty winds would be the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A pleasant, but cloudy day is in store for the Tri-State area today
as stratus and higher level clouds try to clear out during the
afternoon hours. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side
today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The upper level nearly
zonal flow pattern is expected to continue into Sunday as an upper
level low moves towards the Hudson Bay in Canada and high pressure
moves over the Southern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure over
the Tri-State area will move eastward through the overnight hours
tonight as a surface trough extends south over the High Plains from
an area of low pressure over Wyoming. GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and RAP
guidance are all favoring the zonal pattern evolving as a weak omega
block occurs with a ridge axis moving over the western half of the
Great Plains Sunday. On Monday, the Tri-State area should be under
southwest flow aloft as the next upper level low moves along the
Canadian border with Eastern Montana and North Dakota towards Lake
Manitoba. This will bring our next cold front to the area early next
week.

With the stratus slowly clearing out as of 12:30 PM MT, the
environment should be quite stable this afternoon and evening due to
limited diurnal heating. So far with the showers and storms
northeast of the County Warning Area (CWA), the RAP and NAMnest our
handling it the best. Both models are showing a signal for perhaps a
few isolated showers to develop during the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Looking at soundings, the mid-layer of the atmosphere
has quite a bit of dry air, so even the showers will struggle to
form if this holds true. With this indication of some low-level
moisture lingering over the area tonight and possibly some early
morning shower/storm activity in Central Kansas it is possible we
see stratus once again develop in the early morning hours Sunday
primarily east of the Colorado border. Confidence is around 40-60%
for stratus development at this time. Should the stratus develop, it
should burn off around mid-day Sunday from west to east.

Winds are expected to be light around 5-15 mph this evening into
Sunday morning out of the east to southeast. Sunday afternoon winds
will begin to pick up with southeast winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to
45 mph possible over the northwest portion of the area once the
cloud cover clears out. The strongest winds are currently expected
to occur over Eastern Colorado. The breezy winds could linger into
Monday with gusts decreasing to 35-40 mph Sunday evening. Based on
the 12Z guidance, once the cold front moves in winds should start to
decrease.

This front will also bring our next rain/storm chances (50-80%)
Monday afternoon/evening if the frontal passage timing holds. Model
soundings continue to favor an inverted-V profile with 1,500-2,500
J/kg of Surface and Mixed-Layer CAPE. With favorable lapse rates and
shear of 35-50 kts, we could see large hail and damaging winds gusts
as the primary concern. Looking at 12Z CAMs, we could see two areas
for initiation impact the CWA. The first could be over portions of
Western Kansas possibly along the front and another post-frontal
over Eastern Colorado.

Despite the cooler weather today, temperatures are expected to warm
back up the next few days. Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid
50s to lower 60s. With stratus expected to clear out faster tomorrow
compared to today, we could see highs range from the 80s to the
lower 90s with the cooler temperatures over the northeast corner and
warmest over the southwest portions of the area. Sunday night lows
could fall into the 60s across the area. Monday looks to be quite
warm with highs in the 90s across the area and maybe potential
for temperatures close to 100 degrees in the southeast corner of
the area. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected
Monday despite the hot, breezy conditions given relative
humidity values are expected to be above 20% across the CWA.
Overnight lows Monday could fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The new work week will start off on the hot and breezy side as
the area remains sandwiched between a potent (but progressive)
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies and a strong upper
ridge over the Deep South. Deepening lee troughing, in response
to the N Rockies trough, will lead to moderately breezy
southerly winds and efficient mixing of an impressive late
summer low level thermal ridge. Latest NBM blend calls for high
temperatures in the 90s across the entire area. Far S/SE zones
may be even warmer given exceedance values of 100 degrees in the
15-25 percent range. Another caveat to keep an eye on will be
the timing/placement of a cold front associated with
aforementioned trough. General consensus is that this front
should remain near or just N of the KS/NE state line through
peak heating, but any minor trends one way or another could lead
to forecast changes in these areas. Fire weather shouldn`t
become a concern as latest RH forecasts generally keep values at
or above 25%. Also, wind speeds may actually decrease through
the afternoon (esp. central and northern zones) with closer
proximity to the approaching cold front.

Main question/potential weather impact for Monday evening and
overnight will be if deep convection can develop along the cold
front. If storms can indeed form, conceptual model would support
high-based convection with potential to tap into hot/deeply
mixed boundary layer (inverted-v profiles) and produce
strong/severe wind gusts. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates
(~7.5 C/km), and hints of locally enhanced deep layer shear
immediately along the boundary (35-45kts?) could also support a
large hail threat. It`s not a forgone conclusion that everyone
will see storms/rain, though, as moisture/instability will be
lacking (at least initially) and best upper forcing will slide
across the Dakotas...but this does look to be our next best
chance for precipitation (60-80%).

Tuesday will be significantly cooler behind the front as latest
ensembles show 25th to 75th percentile temperatures mainly in
the 70s. Exception could be the far S/SE that still manage to
warm into the lower 80s. Regardless...solid 20-25 degrees cooler
than Monday. Cooler temperatures will also come with a
refreshing NE breeze. With drier air may come a brief taste of
40s for esp. N/NW zones Wednesday AM. High pressure nosing in
from the N. Plains should keep mild temperatures going through
midweek, but would expect some gradual air mass modification
back to near or just above normal for the end of the week.

Extended periods are littered with off an on POPs, though
confidence in any given period getting precipitation is low. The
area will be located on the western side of a flattened upper
ridge that`s centered over the Deep South. This will promote
advection of monsoonal upper moisture and at least a few weak
perturbations in SW upper flow. These could support development
of late afternoon convection along the Front Range that shifts E
during the evening, but again, confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected during the 18Z TAF period as
stratus creates lower ceilings over the KMCK and KGLD terminals.
At KGLD, current MVFR conditions will improve during the
afternoon hours as the stratus begins to clear out. KMCK is
expected to maintain VFR conditions for much of the period;
however, cloud cover will keep broken to overcast conditions
around through the mid-afternoon hours (~21-23Z). During the
overnight hours, most likely around 09Z, to ~18Z we could see a
return of lower ceilings due to stratus impact the Tri-State
area. Current thinking is stratus development would be similar
to today, with the best potential (~40-60% chance) of stratus
impacting KGLD and areas along I-70 corridor initially before
expanding towards the KMCK terminal around sunrise. Guidance is
favoring the stratus clearing from west to east during the late
morning to around mid-day hours Sunday.

Winds are expected to decrease over the next few hours as winds
become easterly at ~10 kts. Sporadic gusts of 15-20 kts will be
possible until ~19-20Z over KGLD until the wind shift occurs.
After sunset and through the remainder of the TAF period, winds
are expected to become southeasterly to southerly at 5-10 kts
over the terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...KMK