017
FXUS63 KGLD 051908
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1208 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog may develop over portions of the area early Friday
  morning, mainly along and east of a line from Benkelman to
  Colby and Russell Springs.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of
  the work week.

- A mild weekend is forecast for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Current observations currently have showers in Greeley and
Wichita counties, associated with a surface low moving southeast
of the area. There is also a narrow band of sprinkles moving in
from the north, likely along the upper trough axis. Both of
these are forecast to produce low accumulations, and
precipitation should end well before sunrise. The remainder of
the night is forecast to remain cloudy with winds around 10-15
mph. This should keep temperatures steady in the 30s and low
40s.

During the daytime hours today, the cloud cover should clear
from west to east as a small upper ridge pushes into the area
from the west. While the sun is forecast to poke through, the
colder air mass that moved in is forecast to keep temperatures
cooler in the 40s and low 50s. Winds should remain from the
north around 10 mph through the day. Tonight, the winds should
become calm as the pressure gradient weakens. With calm winds
and clear skies forecast, temperatures are forecast to drop into
the upper 20s and low 30s. There is a 30% chance that a surface
ridge will push into the east, and help some dense fog form in
NW Kansas and SW Nebraska close to sunrise. If it did form, it
likely wouldn`t be very broad and last for a few hours. Still,
keep an eye out for sudden visibility reductions.

Friday, the upper ridging is forecast to push off to the east
while an upper trough nears from the west. While somewhat
amplified, the trough isn`t forecast to be very deep. This
should lead to a weak low pressure developing just west of the
area, with the main impact of the winds shifting to out of the
south at 10 mph. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies and
temperatures in the 50s and low 60s are forecast.

Saturday, the upper trough is forecast to split into the main
wave through the Northern Plains, and a weak cut-off low in the
south/southwestern United States. This is forecast to weaken the
pressure gradient over the area and allow for a mild day with
light winds and temperatures reaching the 60s underneath sunny
skies. No precipitation is currently forecast, with the features
forecast to be fairly weak and slightly drier air in place over
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

An unusual upper-level flow pattern is expected late Sunday as
a trough exits the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance projects
meridional flow aloft for the County Warning Area (CWA) as a
ridge slides in from the northern Rockies. Most model runs are
now anticipating this building ridge to propagate faster to the
east than prior runs. Simultaneously, the trough seems to slow
down a bit as it makes its way eastward across the southern
plains. Northeast upper-level winds should result as the exiting
trough becomes more positively tilted than originally thought.
Moving on to Monday, said ridge finally pushes the resisting
trough away and the system is able to proceed with it`s eastward
propagation across our region. Initially, northerly flow aloft
is expected Monday transitioning briefly to more of a zonal look
early Tuesday as the ridge axis passes over the CWA. Weak
southwest flow is then forecasted later in the day Tuesday, with
zonal flow once again taking over shortly after. Guidance is
now starting to lock onto a stronger ridge system beginning to
influence our coverage area on Wednesday, ushering in northwest
winds at the 300-500mb level.

One may wonder what is to come from this peculiar synoptic
setup across the Tri-State area. The answer is likely nothing
but dry conditions and seasonably pleasant temperatures as high
pressure is set to take control both higher up in the atmosphere
and at the surface. Furthermore, moisture content will be quite
limited as dewpoints in the 30s/40s and Relative Humidity (RH)
values ranging 25-55% are forecast. Surface analysis does
anticipate three frontal boundaries to move through during this
forecast period (one each on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday) but
dry air should limit any chance for precipitation. Therefore,
rain will be highly unlikely as Probability of Precipitation
fall below 5% for the entire long-term forecast period.

High temperatures, as mentioned above, should be quite pleasant
for this time of the year across the CWA. Daily highs in the
60s will be commonplace Sunday through the middle of next week.
Overnight lows should follow a slight warming trend. Low
temperatures at or above freezing on Sunday morning likely
increases to upper 30s/low 40s Monday morning through Wednesday
morning. Some locales may not even see morning temps fall below
42 degrees on Wednesday. It is not likely to be very windy at
all going into next week as guidance outlines general 5-15 mph
winds Sunday through Wednesday with some windier prone areas of
eastern Colorado potentially seeing up to 20 mph sustained
winds. Sunday likely is the windiest day but gusts shouldn`t
exceed 25 mph. RH values may dip into the low 20s Sunday/Monday
for areas at or west of US-385 and 20-30% for everywhere in the
CWA east of there but dry fuels are not anticipated so fire
weather chances will be low. Sunday will be the only day to
monitor for that but again, there`s a very low chance of even
elevated fire weather occurring in eastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

GLD: Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest that LIFR fog
and/or low ceiling development in south-central Nebraska and
north-central Kansas could extend as far west as the Sherman/
Thomas county border (15-25 miles E of the Goodland terminal)
for a few hours on either side of sunrise Fri morning. At this
time, confidence in fog/stratus coverage and western extent is
low enough to preclude explicit mention. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period with cloud cover
confined to scattered cirrus at or above 18,000 ft AGL. may lurk
nearby ~10 knot northerly winds will become light/variable
shortly before sunset (~23Z) and remain light through the rest
of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Recent
runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest that a north-south oriented
corridor of dense fog and low stratus will develop over south-
central Nebraska and north-central Kansas after midnight CST
(~06Z), and that LIFR conditions may expand as far west as
Benkelman, NE prior to sunrise (~12Z Fri). Bottom line, there is
increasing confidence that an extended period of dense fog
and/or stratus may affect the McCook terminal late tonight and
Friday morning (~08-16Z Fri). ~10 knot northerly winds will
become light/variable shortly before sunset and remain variable
overnight. Winds will shift to the S late Fri morning, near the
end of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...Vincent