774
FXUS63 KGLD 040550
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1150 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms in Colorado this afternoon, but severe
  chances are low (less than 20%).

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday in
  northwest Kansas. A cold front will be the focus for
  thunderstorm development by mid afternoon with a severe storm
  or two capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a
  brief tornado.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend
  and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

In the near term, shortwave trough currently moving through the area will
lift out to the northeast by 12-14z. A few lingering shower or isolated
thunderstorms will be possible through that time in eastern parts of the
area, then ending.

For the rest of today, will transition to a weak northwest flow aloft around
a ridge centered over the Four Corners and on the southern fringe of the stronger
zonal flow over the Dakotas. Hard to find any embedded shortwaves with the ridge
nudging in from the west. At the surface, a stationary front will be located from
northeast Colorado into the Nebraska panhandle. Latest CAMs show little
convective activity today, with only very isolated cells in northeast Colorado
between 21-02z tied to surface heating and near the front. Instability in Colorado
will be weak, less than 500 j/kg, except right along the Kansas border where
it increases to 1000-1500 j/kg. Deep layer shear will be around 35 kts. If one of
the isolated cells manages to get that far east, it could potentially tap into
the better instability. However, the CAMs suggest that is highly unlikely and
the probability of severe weather is low (less than 20%). Storms should quickly
dissipate after 02z with the loss of surface heating.

Models show the front moving southward overnight and into Friday morning, and by
21z located roughly along a Norton to Colby to Tribune line in northwest Kansas,
or perhaps slightly south of that line as shown by the RRFS. Convective initiation
should occur along the front between 21-23z with strong convergence but little in
the way of synoptic scale lift with upper ridging forecast. Instability will be
maximized on the cool side of the front with up to 2000-2500 j/kg forecast.  Deep
layer shear in the expected frontal position will be 20-25 kts. While there will
be some severe risk given the magnitude of the instability, the lack of forcing
other than the front itself and the weak shear suggest it will be fairly limited.
That being said, a severe storm or two capable of large hail up to half dollar
size, damaging winds (favorable DCAPE around 1500-2000 j/kg), and perhaps a
brief spin up near the front are the expected hazards. CAMs show the storms either
dissipating or moving out to the east fairly early in the evening, between 02-03z,
with the rest of the night quiet.

A ridge axis builds into the Northern Plains on Saturday. There is one wrinkle,
however, as the models show a compact disturbance moving from the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles in the morning into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas by the evening. The
current track would keep precipitation chances well to the south and east of the
area and expecting dry conditions locally. Temperatures will begin to heat up
under the ridge with highs in the low to mid 90s. Breezy southeast surface winds will
continue to advect dew points in the 40s and 50s into the area, so not expecting
any fire weather concerns with relative humidity forecast to be
20-30%.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Medium range models in general agreement that flow aloft will
transition to a more amplified flow pattern with large scale
trough developing over the Northern Rockies with general ridging
developing across the Southern Plains. Main dilemma facing the
area will be the exact position of all of these features as the
CWA will really be on the edge of things, with stronger flow
(and resulting wind shear) being just to the west of the area
and strongest subsidence to the southeast. With surface low
bringing persistent south/southeasterly flow to the area, think
we will have enough low level moisture available for diurnal
thunderstorms even if overall pattern remains uncertain. Severe
threat will be strongly tied to where the stronger flow aloft
develops and while ensemble mean data tends to support this
staying west of the area, some of the latest machine learning
medium range guidance at least bringing some low chances for
severe weather through the start of the week which seems
reasonable.

Other concerns for the long term will be related to amplifying ridge
and general warming trend. Fairly confident temperatures will climb
into the mid to upper 90s by the middle of the week as ridge
amplifies, although area will be on the gradient of temperatures
which does lower overall certainty in upcoming forecast. A period of
breezy southerly winds is expected on Sunday as low intensifies, but
think surface trajectories will likely hold dewpoints and humidities
up somewhat, limiting fire weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Radar observations across the area show lingering
showers/thunderstorms across far southwest NE and northwest KS,
bringing MVFR cigs and vis to MCK. This activity should clear
out in the next hour or two, paving the way for a brief period
of VFR before MVFR/IFR stratus builds in after 09Z. These low
clouds should mix out by late morning, and VFR will return
through the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, winds will remain
light in the 5-10 kt range out of the south to southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DDC
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DDC