330
FXUS63 KGLD 182130
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temps today, cooling trend on Sat-Sun.

- 10-15% chance for a severe storm capable of producing
  localized wind gusts up to 65 mph in eastern CO and nearby KS
  and NE border counties between 4-10 PM MDT today.

- 20% chance for a few severe storms Saturday aft-eve, mainly in
  eastern CO and nearby KS-NE border counties between 5-11 PM
  MDT. 65-75 mph wind gusts are the main threat. Localized flash
  flooding and an instance of quarter to golf ball size hail
  also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Overview: SW flow aloft over the Tri-State Area will modestly
strengthen as a cut-off low in Idaho (today) slowly drifts east
toward the northern Rockies (tonight-Sat). Meanwhile, in the
lower levels, southerly flow on the western periphery of an 850
mb ridge over the Central-Southern MS River Valley will maintain
low-level moisture advection from the Gulf into the Southern
and Central Plains.

Today-Tonight: Yesterday`s lee cyclone in CO has since weakened
and shifted eastward over northwest KS. Consequently, breezy to
strong southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the low has
shifted eastward into central KS. At 19Z, KGLD velocity data
indicated light (5-10 knot) and variable winds across the
majority of the Goodland CWA, with breezy (15-25 knot) southerly
low-level flow confined to Wichita, Gove and Graham counties..
south and east of a surface trough extending northeastward from
Cheyenne Wells to Colby and Oberlin (easily discernible on KGLD
0.5 deg reflectivity data). A moist airmass characterized by
well above average (1.20-1.40") precipitable water values and
modest (6.5-7.0 C/km) mid-level lapse rates persists over the
area. High-res guidance continues to suggest that scattered
diurnal convection developing on the Palmer Divide will progress
northeastward over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE
late this afternoon and evening. Moisture pooling on the N and
NW periphery of the low-level convergence zone has locally
enhanced diurnal destabilization over Yuma/Kit Carson counties
in CO and Cheyenne/Sherman counties in KS, where 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE was analyzed at 20Z. While weak low and mid-level flow
aren`t especially favorable for severe weather, effective deep
layer shear ~25-35 knots could potentially support supercellular
organization (transient, at least). With this in mind, an
isolated severe storm is possible, mainly on the N and NW
periphery of the convergence zone in Yuma, Kit Carson, Sherman,
Cheyenne and Dundy counties ~4-10 pm MDT. Localized wind gusts
up to 65 mph appear to be the primary threat. Localized nuisance
flooding and a few instances of sub-severe (dime to nickel)
hail are also possible.

Expected Storm Motion Today:

Left-Mover:  from 180 deg @ 20 KT
Mean Wind:   from 230 deg @ 15-20 KT
Right-Mover: from 270 deg @ 20 KT

Sat-Sat night: Low confidence in high temperatures and
convective coverage/evolution. Guidance suggests that an
effective cold front.. an inverted surface ridge assoc/w modest
high pressure over southern Canada and North Dakota.. will
extend southward into portions of the Central Plains in this
period, though.. overnight and early morning convection in South
Dakota and Nebraska may have a significant impact on both the
timing and location of the effective front. Strengthening SW
flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper level low
progressing slowly east from Idaho to western Wyoming may lead
to more widespread diurnal convective development along the CO
Front Range and greater downstream coverage in the Goodland CWA
during the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Starting Sunday, our region is finally getting relief from the
stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures are
forecast in the 60s and 70s for Sunday. We are forecast to be
in a southwest upper-level flow with an incoming trough west of
the Rocky Mountains. This trough will traverse east across the
county warning area (CWA) bringing chances for precipitation
beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing overnight into Monday.
The entire CWA has chances for precipitation, but the western
portion has the greatest with Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) around 60-75%. Storms are forecast to enter the area from
the west and traverse east across the CWA. The environment is
marginally severe in terms of CAPE, lapse rates and shear, so
hazard wise we are likely looking at rain showers. A stronger
storm could latch onto the instability in environment and
produce strong winds around 60 mph and hail around 1 inch.
Strong winds gusts are also possible with any short-lived or
collapsing storms that are pop up and dissipate quickly. Weak
showers will likely persist into early Monday morning.

Monday through the end of the week is looking fairly consistent
forecast wise. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s
with afternoon PoPs around 30-50% due to embedded shortwave and
jet support. Starting Monday, we transition to more of a zonal
upper- level pattern with a jet streak overhead. Early
Wednesday, we are forecast to transition to a weak ridging
pattern with a jet streak remaining overhead. The jet streak
overhead the CWA will cause windy conditions Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday with gusts from 30-40 mph possible for the
western CWA. Increased jet support is expected to remain over
the area through at least Thursday, but models diverge on when
the jet streak will move on. This will ultimately affect
precipitation chances for the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

GLD: Aside from gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of any
showers and storms, light/variable winds will otherwise prevail
through the TAF period. Scattered showers/storms forecast to
develop in CO this afternoon may track ENE across portions of
northwest KS during the late afternoon and evening. Locations
north of Goodland are more likely (relatively speaking) to be
affected by storms. Medium confidence in thunderstorm timing
(~23-05Z), low confidence in thunderstorm coverage. Light winds,
a moist airmass and a clearing trend could lead to a period of
IFR-LIFR fog or stratus a few hours on either side of sunrise.
VFR conditions will otherwise prevail during the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Aside from gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of any
showers and storms, light/variable winds will otherwise prevail
through the TAF period. Scattered showers/storms forecast to
develop in CO this afternoon may track ENE across portions of
northwest KS and southwest NE late this afternoon and evening.
Medium confidence in thunderstorm timing (~01-07Z), low
confidence in thunderstorm coverage. Light winds, a moist
airmass and a clearing trend could lead to a period of IFR-LIFR
fog or stratus a few hours on either side of sunrise. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail during the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Vincent