369
FXUS63 KGLD 120600
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1200 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds will accompany a frontal passage early this
  morning. Gusts of 40-50 mph are expected, with perhaps a few
  gusts approaching 60 mph. Blowing dust and minor visibility
  reductions may also occur. Winds diminish through the morning
  and afternoon.

- Expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures through
  the work week, hottest on Thursday and Friday when highs are
  forecast to reach the upper 80`s to mid 90`s.

- Marginally critical fire weather conditions possible over
  portions of the area throughout the work week. At this time,
  relatively light winds (below ~25 mph) appear to be the main
  limiting factor.

- A dryline across portions of Western Kansas Thursday afternoon
  may support multiple hazards, including severe thunderstorms
  and critical fire weather. Confidence in either scenario is
  about 5-10%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

A cold front will move through the area this morning bringing a
few hours of gusty north winds. HRRR and NAMnest in fairly good
agreement with gusts in the 40-50 mph range between 12-15z,
then diminishing through the rest of the day. Would not rule out
a few gusts approaching 60 mph, but not expecting it to be
widespread. May see some blowing dust and minor visibility
reductions as well with the wind. Relative humidity minimums
this afternoon will be around 20%, perhaps 15-20% in northeast
part of the area around McCook, but with the diminishing winds
not expecting to reach critical criteria (15% relative humidity
and gusts of 25 mph) for the required 3 hour minimum to warrant
a highlight at this time. Highs will be slightly cooler than
yesterday in the wake of the front, ranging from the upper 70s
in Colorado to the middle 80s in north central Kansas.

Heights rise on Wednesday with an upper ridge nudging into the
area from the west. The ridge axis is forecast to be over the
area at 00z/Thursday. Precipitation chances will be limited to
the immediate Front Range with a weak wave riding up the ridge
axis in the afternoon and are not expected to make any progress
across the eastern plains. Return flow at the surface around
high pressure will result in increasing southerly winds in the
afternoon, strongest in Colorado, where gusts of 20-25kts are
forecast. Relative humidity minimums will be around 20% once
again, so marginal fire weather conditions will be possible,
mainly in Colorado where the stronger winds are expected. Wind
directions lack a westerly downsloping component so may be
difficult for lower dew points/relative humidity to be realized
and confidence is lacking for any fire weather highlights for
now. Temperatures will warm into the 80s in the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

***Synopsis***

A negatively tilted upper-level shortwave trough is favored to
cross the Montana-Wyoming Rockies Thursday morning. This feature
would produce a broad surface low pressure across the Northern
and Central Great Plains, with potentially a secondary low along
the Colorado- Kansas border. A dryline may be allowed to set up
across portions of Western Kansas Thursday afternoon from this
synoptic setup, though confidence in the Western extent and
strength of the dryline are in question. A weak cold front
appears favored to come through during the evening or overnight
hours as well. Upper-level ridging may move in by Saturday
morning, allowing southerly flow to return. At the same time,
troughing looks to be developing over the Western United States.
How this trough evolves in time and space is uncertain at this
time, though it may provide warm and wet conditions while it is
to our west, and cooler conditions as it moves in overhead.

***Thursday***

High temperatures on Thursday are forecast in the upper 80s to
mid 90s. The presence of a dryline across portions of Western
Kansas Thursday may promote several hazards across the forecast
area, including thunderstorms (some of which may be severe) and
critical fire weather. Again, the exact location of the dryline
is uncertain at this time, though will be dependent on the
timing of the associated trough coming across the Rockies.
Around 20% or less of LREF members place the incoming trough as
far west as Northern Utah by 6 am Thursday, whereas the
remainder of the solutions have the trough further northeast in
Montana. The slower progression would support a dryline further
west, with a greater severe weather potential, whereas the
faster progression would support an eastern placement, with a
greater critical fire weather potential.

While LREF mean and 50th percentile guidance place the 50
degree dew point contour along and east of the US-83 Corridor,
higher end 90th percentile scenarios show this contour as far
west as the Kansas- Colorado Border, with upper-50 dew point
temperatures in portions of Norton and Graham Counties in
Kansas. These higher-end scenarios could be associated with
around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, and up to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk
wind shear. This could support some strong storms capable of
isolated 60 mph gusts, and 1-2 inch hail. Confidence in this
scenario occurring is highest in eastern portions of the CWA
(Norton and Graham Counties), but is only around 5-10% due to
ensemble guidance favoring the faster trough evolution. Still,
this is an important development to keep an eye on in the days
ahead.

In addition to the severe threat, forecast guidance shows the
potential for relative humidities (RH) to drop into the low to
mid- teens on the dry side of the dryline. The greatest risk for
critical fire weather conditions looks to be across portions of
Eastern Colorado, where wind gusts have up to a 75% chance to
reach criteria for the hazard according to the NBM. Still, LREF
guidance suggests a 25% chance or less for most locations to
experience RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria, the
exception being across Western portions of Cheyenne County in
Colorado, where there is up to a 45% chance. Confidence in a Red
Flag Warning being needed is highest across portions of Eastern
Colorado at this time, around 5- 10%.

***Friday***

Forecast highs are in the lower 80s to lower 90s, a little
lower than Thursday`s highs due to a cold frontal passage.
Northerly to northwesterly winds across the CWA through the
early afternoon may promote dry conditions, with RH values in
the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather conditions may once
again be a concern, though weaker wind gusts may limit the
threat for the hazard. Forecast guidance suggests wind gusts may
max out around 25 mph during the early to mid afternoon, with
up to a 60% chance for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather
criteria in Eastern Colorado according to the NBM. However,
considering that gusts are favored to weaken throughout the
afternoon, and not get much higher than 25 mph throughout the
day, any critical fire weather conditions look to be brief in
nature. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Friday
is less than 5%.

***Saturday-Monday***

Forecast certainty begins to decline Saturday regarding how a
trough across the Western United States develops. Two solutions
seem to be evident from this system: (1) it deepens across the
West Coast and remains to the west of the forecast area, and (2)
it broadens and moves eastward across the Northern United
States, with the trough axis across the Northern High Plains by
Sunday morning. For our CWA, solution 1 would be associated with
warm, and potentially wet conditions sustained through the end
of the forecast period, whereas solution 2 would start out
similar to scenario 1, but bring a cold front through the
forecast area Sunday or Monday. Precipitation may still be
experienced behind the cold front in scenario 2, but would be
more light, isolated, and short-lived than solution 1.
Currently, about 60% of LREF members are in favor of solution 2,
with about 40% favoring solution 1. This is reflected in
current forecast guidance, with high temperatures forecast lower
on Monday (70s) than Saturday and Sunday (80s and 90s), in
addition to reduced chances for precipitation Monday. The
development of this trough will be something to keep an eye on
as we move closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. A cold front will shift surface winds to northerly
around 12z at both terminals with an hour or two of gusts to
30-40kts immediately after frontal passage, then diminishing the
rest of the day.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024