588
FXUS63 KGLD 032225
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
425 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-40%) through
  the start of next week.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge located today from the Southern Plains to the
southeast CONUS will reset over the Central Plains and
strengthen over the weekend. The High Plains will be on the
western side of the ridge axis with weak southwest flow. At the
surface, the lee trough will be persistent over eastern
Colorado through the period with little movement expected. Under
the ridge, temperatures will continue to be above normal, with
highs in the 90s and a few locations in the lower 100s. The
deepening lee trough will result in increasing south to
southeasterly winds, with the strongest winds in the Kansas and
Colorado border area. Gusts Saturday afternoon will be up to 35
mph and gusts by Sunday afternoon will be up to 40 mph.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the area
beginning on Friday and continue through the weekend. Generally
speaking, convection will initiate in southeast Colorado
associated with weak disturbances rotating around the ridge, as
well as the typical afternoon storms in the mountains and Front
Range. Additional storms may develop in the local area along
mesoscale boundaries such as the lee trough. Environmental
parameters will be weak, with instability peaking at 1000-1500
j/kg and deep layer shear of 10-20 kts. A more favorable
parameter will be DCAPE due to the hot and relatively dry
boundary layer, with values as high as 2000 j/kg. The overall
severe threat will be low through the period, but cannot
discount a marginally severe wind threat given the favorable
DCAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Long-term guidance is currently suggesting that the tri-state area
should continue to see effects from a fairly strong longwave ridge,
slowly propagating across the plains and upper-midwest Monday. This
setup will keep our area in southwest flow aloft through most of the
forecast period. Model guidance is keying in on an upper-level
jet streak, which should begin to eject thru this ridge on
Tuesday. Deamplification of said ridge is expected through the
end of the four day timeframe, which should make the region more
susceptible to shortwave passages. At the surface, low-pressure
sets up over western Kansas through next Thursday. A slight
cool down, accompanied by daily chances for afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated over the course of the
week due to lessened effects of the ridge.

Ensemble guidance is hinting at daily PoPs (Probability of
Precipitation) through Thursday of next week as shortwaves move
through the synoptic system. There is also medium confidence of a
frontal boundary setting up and moving through the county warning
area (CWA) late Tuesday into Wednesday. For Monday, PoPs
currently stand at 30-65% for locations north of I-70 with
chances south of the interstate being much lower. A more uniform
15-35% is forecasted for the area Tuesday. Wednesday and
Thursday should follow suit with a bit more modest 15-30% PoPs.
Dewpoints are forecasted in the mid 50s to 60s, providing ample
moisture to the environment. Confidence of thunderstorms forming
in the CWA is low at this point in time due to lower
instability values forecasted across the region.

Unseasonably hot and breezy conditions will persist throughout the
region as the ridge evolves. High temperatures in the low to upper
90s Monday transition to more upper 80s/low 90s by Thursday. Low
temperatures should follow a similar pattern, going from 60s/70s to
more uniform 60s across the CWA. Surface winds are forecasted to
start off Monday at 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. The stronger
winds will occur on the more northern and western areas of the tri-
state region, 15-30 mph are expected there along with gusts up to 40
mph. Winds should weaken for the remainder of the forecast period,
as 5-15 mph is anticipated, with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 421 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop on Friday across the area, with a low probability
(around 20%) of impacting either location.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK/AMP
AVIATION...024