285
FXUS63 KGLD 291113
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
413 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
  cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, strongest (25-40
  G 45-60 mph) between sunrise and noon.

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

For the early morning hours, rain and snow showers are forecast to
push through the area as a surface low drifts south and east of the
area. There have been a few instances of freezing rain or sleet
mixing in, but thankfully they have been brief. The forecast remains
on track with generally low accumulations of snow and rain. The
front also remains on track to push into the Tri-State border area
around 3am and be through most if not all of the area by sunrise.

For the morning hours, winds are forecast to strengthen with 6-8mb
pressure rises in 3 hours behind the front. Winds around 25-35 mph
with gusts to 45-55 mph remain expected across most of the area.
There could still be a couple of gusts to 60 mph, but the broadening
of the upper wave is forecast to hinder the flow around 850-700mb
from consistently reaching 50 kts. Even if it does, mixing will be
fairly hampered by the cold air pouring into the area behind the
front. With the cold air moving in, temperatures are unlikely to
warm and will likely stay within a few degrees of what they are
around sunrise. The forecast is for temperatures to be in the mid to
upper 20s through the day with slowly clearing skies from west to
east as the system pushes east. That being said, some high level
clouds are forecast to return late in the day.

Tonight is forecast to be one of the colder nights we`ve had so far
with the colder air mass squarely into the area. Winds lightening to
around 5-10 mph should allow most of the area to cool to near
dewpoint in the single digits and lower teens. That being said, the
high level cloud cover may provide just enough insulation for low to
mid teens instead.

Sunday, another upper trough is forecast to dig south through the
Rockies. This one however is forecast to be more west of the area
then the prior system, developing the low pressure further west and
south of the area. This should keep the pressure gradient and winds
weak for most of the area. Those along the Colorado border will
likely still be close enough to have winds around 15-25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph. Otherwise, temperatures and conditions shouldn`t
change much as the broad troughing keeps temperatures steady and
allows more high level moisture to move over and keep skies mostly
cloudy.

Sunday night and into Monday, the upper trough is forecast to begin
swinging east towards the area and the Plains. This is forecast to
bring another shot of moisture through the area along with the
forcing from the trough. The question is will the area also see some
lift from the surface low, or will it be too far from the area? The
current forecast has around half an inch to an inch of fluffy snow
falling in the area with another inch or two possible if we get the
early lift. Thankfully, the upper wave and surface low are forecast
to be too broad and keep winds around 15 mph or less which makes
snowfall amounts the only concern. That being said, there is only a
15% chance that snow totals reach or exceed 3 inches anywhere in the
area. The later part of Monday and into the night is forecast to see
the upper trough push east of the area and end precipitation
chances. Skies are forecast to clear short of maybe some more high
clouds as the area remains under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures
should fall again into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Zonal flow to start the period on Tuesday will give way to a
broad trough which digs into the Rockies Tuesday night, remains
somewhat stationary Wednesday and Thursday, then lifts out on
Friday with a ridge building in from the west. Ensembles
showing little more than a few flurries or light snow (less than
a half inch) with the upper trough on Wednesday, otherwise the
period is dry. Do not see any wind associated with this system
and afternoon relative humidity minimums remain well above
critical levels. So what is left is mainly a temperature
forecast. Will begin the period somewhat mild with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s Tuesday, cooling off
slightly to the upper 30s on Wednesday, then mid 40s on Thursday
and around 50 by Friday with the building ridge. Low
temperatures will be in the teens and 20s, coldest Thursday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

For KGLD... Low ceilings around 500-1000ft are forecast to
linger through about 15Z. The chances for fog have lowered on
the backside of the front, but there is still the possibility
for some brief 1-2SM visibility as moisture begins to push out.
Winds should increase a bit more with speeds around 30 kts and
gusts around 40 kts after sunrise. There might be an isolated
gust to near 50 kts through the morning. Around 00Z, the sun set
and inversion should lower winds back to around 10 kts or less.
With drier air in place near the surface, VFR conditions are
forecast.

For KMCK... Ceilings are forecast to linger between 1000-2000ft
through much of the day as the lower level moisture slowly
shifts off to the east. With the front having moved through,
chances for precipitation and fog are both very low now. Winds
should increase closer to 30kts with gusts nearing 40kts an hour
or two after sunrise. The winds should stay strong until about
00Z when the sun sets and the inversion develops. Winds should
then lower below 10 kts. The low level moisture and clouds will
also likely be clear by that time period and allow for VFR
conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK