389
FXUS63 KGLD 151909
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
109 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy conditions continue through the end of the
  week.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon in
  Kansas.

- Hotter Sunday and Monday nearing the triple digits.

- Storm chances may return early next week as well as slightly
  cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

More of the same through the short term period. The upper level
Rex block continues with a ridge over the northern plains and
closed low over Texas. Both features slowly drift westward the
next few days with the ridge becoming the more dominant feature
for the local area as it strengthens over the northern Rockies.
CAMs still show very isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
popping up Thursday afternoon as the upper low in Texas sends a
weak vorticity lobe north into Kansas. Both shear and
instability will be quite weak, so no severe storms are
expected, and they should fade fairly quickly by early in the
evening with loss of surface heating. The environment on Friday
will be similar, but with the upper low moving into west Texas
there is no synoptic lift. CAMs show scattered diurnally driven
convection in eastern Kansas that do not reach the local area.
On Saturday will start to see convection rotating around the
ridge making it into central Nebraska during the afternoon, with
a low probability (less than 20%) of reaching southwest
Nebraska in the early evening before dissipating. Very patchy
fog may develop each morning with the high dew points and
radiational cooling, but confidence is low as it has not
developed at all the past couple of mornings. Temperatures show
a slow warming trend of a degree or two each day, reaching the
mid 90s by Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The upper level ridge will be nearly centered over the forecast area
for the start of this period.  As such highs will be quite warm for
Sunday and Monday.  Probabilities for highs above 95F are above 70%
for both days across the forecast area.  High temperature spread in
the ensemble data is around five degrees for Sunday, increasing to
10 degrees for Monday.  Heat index values will be close to 100F for
the eastern half of the forecast area.

After Monday the ridge shifts slightly to the south, allowing
slightly cooler air to move into the forecast area.  Probabilities
for highs above 95F fall to 60% or less for Tuesday and Wednesday.
There may be a couple fronts moving through between Monday night and
Wednesday.  This will lead to chances for rainfall.  The spread in
high temperatures remains around 10 degrees through the rest of the
period.

Looking at the environment for storms, the deep layer shear is
almost nonexistent through Tuesday.  Wednesday, as the ridge shifts
more southward, the deep layer shear increases to around 20kts.
However storm motion will be 10 MPH or less, so heavy rainfall will
be a potential with any storms that develop.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period with light winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg