063
FXUS63 KGLD 020921
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low-end chances for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
  A wind gust up to 75 mph is possible.

- Today & Tuesday could bring some strong winds with gusts
  around 30-60 mph.

- Freezing temperatures return Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

A few showers are moving through the area on the leading edge of a
surface low advancing into the western portion of the area. These
showers have largely remained sub-severe with the better
instability south of the area. These showers should finish
moving out of the area a few hours before sunrise. Meanwhile,
winds have been elevated with speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts
to 50 mph as the low has been nearing the area. This should
continue until about sunrise, when we may see a slight reprieve
as the center of the low moves over the area. Temperatures will
likely remain in the 50s and 60s.

For the late morning and early afternoon hours, the main focus will
be on the winds. While the upper trough and surface low remain
forecast to elongate, the resulting pressure gradient and passage of
the cold front should restrengthen the winds and shift them to out
of the northwest. Speeds should reach 20-35 mph with gusts generally
in the 35 to 55 mph range. Stronger winds are possible as we get
later into the afternoon and evening. A 50-55kt 850-700mb is
forecast to develop on the backside of the system. These winds will
likely struggle to mix down on their own with it being later and
cloud cover moving back in. However, the cold front is forecast to
be positioned roughly from Tribune, KS to Norton, KS and generate
storms as early as 17-18Z. These storms by themselves may not
do much shift of produce some lightning and moderate to heavy
rain. But they should help mix down some of these stronger
winds, if the jet forms while the storms are present. If this
occurs, be alert for a few wind gusts in the 55-75 mph range.
Most of the strongest wind gusts should occur between about
3pm-12am. Temperatures for most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska
should reach the 60s and 70s as a dry slot moves in with the
system and provides a few hours of sunshine. Areas further west
will likely cap in the 50s with the cold front moving through
and an increase in cloud cover on the backside of the system.

Overnight, the winds should remain elevated, but lower ever so
slightly as the upper trough and low pressure system continue to
push east. Another cloudy night with additional showers is forecast,
though the shower should be light and fairly spotty given they
should be from the wrap around of the system. Even with the cloud
cover and strong winds, temperatures should drop into the 30s as
cold air advects in from the northwest.

Tuesday, any lingering showers should dissipate close to sunrise as
the surface low continues to push further east. Winds will remain
around 15-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph through the morning as the
upper trough stalls a bit before pushing northeast. Later in the day
as the systems begin to get far enough away from the area, the cloud
cover should clear and winds slowly lower. Temperatures will likely
cap in the 40s and low 50s with the cold air mass forecast to be in
place. Tuesday night, winds should become somewhat light around 5 to
10 mph as the system moves away and the pressure gradient relaxes.
With the light winds and clearer skies, temperatures should cool
into the 20s and 30s across most of the area.

Wednesday, a low amplitude upper low is forecast to move through the
High Plains in larger split flow. This is forecast to develop a weak
surface low along the lee of the Rockies as the day goes on. With
the low forecast to be weak, the winds aren`t forecast to change
much with speeds around 5 to 15 mph and shifting to out of the
north. Mostly sunny skies are forecast to allow temperatures to warm
into the 50s across the area, with maybe a few low 60s. The upper
low and surface low may be able to provide enough forcing for a few
late showers and a storm. The main inhibitor is that we are forecast
to have drier air in place. Wednesday night is forecast to be fairly
similar to Tuesday night with lows around freezing and light
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

On Thursday and Friday, the upper-level pattern swings from a
zonal flow to mostly northwesterly as the trough starts
sliding eastward before a weakening ridge over northern
Nebraska moves to the southeast. This should allow a slight
warming trend with afternoon highs as temperatures are forecast
to rise from upper 40s and low 50s on Thursday to upper 50s on
Friday. However, morning lows are still expected to be at or
just above freezing before dawn. Clouds are also expected to
decrease over these two days with winds shifting from the south
to the southwest as a weak surface high pressure slides in from
the west.

Over the weekend, it is expected that a broad trough system
would follow through the area on Saturday and start to dig to
the southeast. At the same time, a secondary ridge pattern
starts to form to the west and amplify to the northeast. With
our area in between these two features, we can expect a cold
front to pass through and could allow a small chance (15%) for
rain overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning. With this, winds
are forecast to pick up from the north being between 15 and 20
mph. There is some uncertainty on Sunday regarding the upper-
level pattern as ensemble spread increases to the southwest and
could push the core of the broad trough into Texas. If this does
happen, then this would allow the upper-level pattern to be more
northerly and could bring in even more cooler air than
anticipated on Sunday. There is low confidence (20%) that this
would happen. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be
similar to Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Ceilings varying between 500-2000ft are
forecast for the first 3-6 hours of the period. Visibility is
also expected to vary between 2-10SM. This variability is
stemming from showers in the area, along with an advancing low
pressure system. However, the system is forecast to bring in dry
air and temporary VFR conditions, likely between 12-18Z. After
that, an advancing cold front is forecast to bring low cloud
cover back into the area that should persist through the end of
the period. Winds will be strong, short of maybe a few hour
reprieve around 12Z. Expect gusts around 30-50 kts through much
of the period otherwise. Also, winds should shift rapidly to out
of the northwest as the cold front moves through during the
morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...KAK