558
FXUS63 KGLD 010727
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
127 AM MDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For is forecast to linger through the morning. The fog may be
  dense at times.

- Chances for rain through Monday.

- Monday & Tuesday could bring some strong winds with gusts
  around 30-60 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Current observations have upper ridging taking shape over the
region. At the surface, we have low pressure to the west and high
pressure to the east. This is allowing for more low level moisture
to funnel in and has led to low clouds across the area and fog. The
fog hasn`t been thick yet with the cloud cover, but there is an 80%
chance that patches of dense fog will develop south of Highway 36
before sunrise.

During the day, the upper ridge is forecast to slide east while a
trough slides east into the Rockies. As it does so, it is forecast
to deepen the low pressure along the Front Range. This should
increase the winds to be more around 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
The higher winds are forecast to favor Eastern Colorado, closer to
the surface low. This increase in winds should burn any fog off
during the morning, but the cloud cover will likely stick around
through the day with no dry air forecast to come in and clear the
clouds. Temperatures then should slowly rise towards the 60s as we
get to the afternoon hours.

Overnight, precipitation chances are forecast to increase as we keep
the moist air mass in place while the surface low nears the area.
With the additional forcing from the surface low/front and upper
trough, showers are forecast to develop with maybe a few storms
sneaking in. Instabilty will likely be too low for any strong
storms to develop, though periods of heavier rain are possible. With
winds remaining strong from the advancing low and precipitation in
the area, dense fog chances will be much lower. Fog would likely
form early in the evening and then fade during the overnight hours.
This looks to be further compounded by the surface low bringing a
dry slot to the area. Even with all of this happening though,
temperatures will likely remain similar to the past few days with
lows in the 40s and 50s.

Monday is forecast to start with a brief reprieve from the wind,
unless the faster ensemble solutions verify and the front moves
through at sunrise. Either way, the front should pass through most
of the area during the morning and increase the winds. There is
still a decent spread in the solutions, but the main core of the
system is forecast to push north while the upper trough broadens
out. With this broadening of the low pressure system, we would
likely see winds from the northwest at 15-35 mph with gusts around
30-50 mph. The stronger winds should again favor Eastern Colorado
with the earlier frontal passage. There remains about a 20-30%
chance that the low remains more concentrated and pushes gusts more
into the 40-65 mph range. The more shocking thing though is that if
the dry slot doesn`t shift, we could actually see the sun for a bit
on Monday with clear skies until the low moves enough for the wrap
around moisture. This does give the area another chance for rain and
storms, especially if the front stalls near or just south of the
area. Should storms develop, there is a 5% chance that one would
produce strong wind gusts around 60-70 mph with the downshear
vectors around 55 knots and overall strong flow. The limiter is the
better instability could be south of the area, and severe wind gusts
from storms are less likely when the environmental flow and gusts
are above 40 mph.

Monday night, the system is forecast to stall out just east of the
area. This is forecast to lead to an interesting night with strong
wind remaining over the area (20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph) and
some wrap around rain showers moving through. Fog would also be
possible, though dense fog probably won`t form with the strong winds
and downslope component to the winds. Cold air advection is forecast
behind the front with temperatures lowering into the 30s as the
night goes on. The more showers and cloud cover we have though, the
warmer we will likely be.

Tuesday, the system is forecast to slowly push off to the east. The
forecast is for a windy start with winds remaining around 20-35 mph
with gusts up to 60 mph. A few lingering showers could also move
through during the morning hours. As the day progresses, the winds
should lighten and the showers end. Skies are also forecast to begin
clearing. In spite of the clearing skies, the cold air that moved in
is forecast to keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s during the day.
The night time hours are then forecast to drop winds to around 5 to
10 mph with mostly clear skies across the area. This should allow
temperatures to drop into the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Next week starting on Tuesday and through Friday, we are
forecast to be in a revolving upper-level trough and ridge
pattern over the area. On Tuesday, it is expected that the
trough system from the short-term period will slide east,
bringing in a cold front, and putting us into northwesterly flow
aloft as a de-amplifying ridge follows in from the souther
Rockies on Wednesday. Once the ridge completely de-amplifies and
flattens out over us, it would likely put us into zonal flow on
Thursday. After this, a possible additional ridge could form in
to the south and amplify to the north on Friday. With this being
said, there is some marginal spread of uncertainty within the
overall evolution of the pattern. While zonal flow is favored,
GEFS ensemble spread shows some variability of the small trough
on Thursday that could lead into slightly northwesterly flow
before the ridge arrives Friday. There is low confidence (30%)
that upper-level northwesterly flow will occur earlier on
Thursday.

Afternoon temperatures for this long-term period continue to be
fairly consistent with highs forecast to be in the 50s. However
on Wednesday and onward, near freezing morning temperatures are
expected to occur in the Tri-State border area. With the spread
of the overall pattern later in the week, there is low
confidence (20%) that temperatures could drop a few degrees into
below freezing over the entire County Warning Area (CWA) if the
pattern becomes northwesterly. Otherwise, morning lows will
likely be in the 30s and slightly above freezing.

On Tuesday, showers and strong winds are expected to end once
the initial trough system passes by. Showers are likely to exit
out of the area before the mid afternoon hours with winds from
the northwest decreasing from 30 mph to 10 mph. For the rest of
the period, we can expect the winds to be calm and shift a
couple of times with the changing pattern. Clouds should remain
relatively low before possibly building back up on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... IFR conditions are expected through most of
the night and morning with ceilings around 200-500ft and
visibility around 2-6SM. KGLD has about a 60% chance for 1/4 to
1/2SM visibility after 08Z. The fog will likely lift between
16-18Z, but ceilings remain low through much of the day. If the
ceilings don`t lift, then IFR conditions will persist as the
clouds lower again tonight. Similar to recent days, there may be
a few showers, with the highest chance after 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...KAK