397
FXUS63 KGLD 102248
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
448 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditions will roughly be the same through Monday. Highs in
  the 80s/90s, lows in the 50s/60s, and winds around 10-20 mph
  for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Today-Monday night: Mainly a persistence forecast. Southwest
flow aloft, between an upstream trough over the Pacific
Coast/Intermountain West and a downstream ridge over the
Mississippi River Valley, and modest S to SW low-level flow on
the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee
cyclone will persist over the region throughout the short term
period. Expect little change in sensible weather conditions from
day to day, with mostly clear skies, well above average highs
in the mid-upper 80`s to lower 90`s and a 15-25 mph S to SW
breeze. For reference, average high temperatures in mid- October
range from the upper 60`s in eastern Colorado to the lower 70`s
in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

Fire Weather: Despite well above average temperatures, poor
spatial overlap between the breeziest winds (east of Hwy 25 in
Kansas) and lowest humidity (RH ~15-20% in Colorado) during the
afternoon hours will greatly mitigate, or altogether preclude,
critical fire conditions each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

On tuesday, upper-level southwesterly flow continues over the
area as we are behind a ridge to the east and in front of a deep
trough system to the southwest. This will allow a shortwave
trough to move into the area in the afternoon with a possible
surface low pressure system to the west. This would lead to
afternoon showers north of I-70 and weak thunderstorms in the
southeast portions of the forecast area as upslope low level
moisture will be fed in from the southeast. However, there is
low confidence (30%) that the surface low will form and showers
to occur.

Wednesday, the upper-level pattern path remains similar as the
upper-level trough moves closer and into the Four Corners
region. However, uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-
level trough starts to grow throughout the period. This will
lead into morning showers and potential strong and low topped
thunderstorms in the afternoon. The main driving factors for
thunderstorms are potential CAPE values above 500 J/kg and a
strong surface to 3 km wind shear profile. The main potential
hazard will be strong winds up to 50 mph. While confidence for
showers are medium (50-65%), confidence for severe weather are
lower (at 25%).

Thursday, the upper-level pattern will start to change from
southwesterly flow to northwesterly as the trough moves through
the area. Timing of the trough is still inconsistent and becomes
even more variable. Although, a dry cold front is forecast to
pass through and push any remaining showers to the northeast. If
the trough speeds up, it could pass through the early morning
hours and have drier conditions. If the trough slows down, it
will then allow more time for precipitation to accumulate and
have warmer afternoon temperatures.

Friday, as the upper-level troughs moves further northeast, it
is likely to merge with a secondary upper-level trough to the
north. This could lead to cooler temperatures than expected with
calm winds from the north as an additional cold front could
pass through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 447 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period. Winds will be breezy and mainly out of the south-
southwest. Wind gusts around 25 knots are possible through around
sunrise for both terminals. For KMCK, expect low-level wind shear to
begin around 03Z and end around 08Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...Rhoades