974
FXUS63 KGLD 060611
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1211 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog possible tonight into Saturday morning along and
  north of I-70.

- Warm to hot temperatures are forecast this weekend through
  next week.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and
Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1207 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

500mb high pressure is located across southern portions of the area
as mainly zonal flow continues across the Northern Plains. This
continues to keep the area in between systems with very weak flow
within the atmospheric profile.  850mb moisture advection is
forecast to increase through the night. The boundary from
Friday`s storm attempts is forecast to retreat as a warm front
and lead to fog potential again tonight. Currently thinking the
fog threat should be a bit greater than what occurred Friday
morning as it is forecast to favor areas along and north of
Interstate 70. HRRR and NAM are the most aggressive with the
dense fog potential as higher surface to 1km mixing ratio
differences are again seen along with easterly winds. RAP and
SREF keep winds a bit more southerly which would favor more of a
stratus potential with patchy fog. 00Z REFS has been
consistently highlighting Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) as the
most likely areas to see the dense fog development through the
night so have added in an areas mention into the forecast for
this. Some failure points to the fog are seen however with cloud
cover seen on satellite associated with the moisture advection
which could limit how low visibilities do get. Confidence in fog
is around 60-70% and dense fog is around 30%.

Saturday, is forecast for troughing to begin to develop across the
western CONUS which is forecast to help shunt out the mid level high
across the area. Before that can occur however, pressure gradients
are forecast to tighten and lead to breezy conditions. Forecast
soundings suggest that higher sustained wind around 20 mph is most
likely to occur with the strongest during the afternoon hours as the
trough moves closer to the area. Warm temperatures are forecast
across the area with highs in the 90s. The breezy winds and the warm
temperatures are forecast to lead to some fire weather concerns
across eastern Colorado. Elevated to perhaps briefly critical
fire conditions are currently forecast with humidity values
forecast in the mid teens. Using the mixed dewpoint surface to
30 output via the RAP and the NAM yields dewpoints in the upper
30s to low 40s. Current forecast high temperatures are a little
on the higher side so confidence in multiple hours of critical
conditions is around 20% at this time; precluding the need for
a Red Flag Warning at this time.

During the afternoon hours a 500mb vorticity maxima associated with
some of the western CONUS troughing is forecast to eject from the
mountains and onto the Plains leading to the potential for isolated
to scattered storms. Synoptic flow is again forecast to remain weak
across the area which should limit storm intensity mainly to
pulse type storms. There is concern for some dry thunderstorm
potential across western Yuma and far northwest Kit Carson
counties from around 3pm-8pm mountain time. This signal matches
very well with the SPC Iso DRYT outlook as well. Currently
thinking the coverage of the dry thunderstorms should be fairly
low for Yuma and Kit Carson counties only favoring the far
western portion of each county respectively at this time.
Another feature of interest is with a mid level low moving up
from the southern Plains into Kansas. Current thinking is that
the forcing from this should be south and east of the forecast
area but the NAMNEST does have it shifted a bit further west
which would support some additional showers and storms across
Gove, Logan, Sheridan and Graham counties but confidence in this
scenario occurring is around 10% at this time.

Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) will remain in a broad
southwest upper-level flow aloft downstream of a low pressure system
in the Pacific Northwest. The pressure gradient from Saturday shifts
slightly to the west as breezy sustained winds around 15-20 mph are
forecast to continue. Further west across eastern Colorado the axis
axis of a surface trough is forecast to be in place limiting the
strength of the winds; this will also help limit the concern
for fire weather at this time as well. High temperatures for the
day are again forecast to be in the 90s across the entire area.
During the afternoon hours an embedded shortwave is forecast to
move across eastern Colorado and may spark some isolated storms
along a weak dry line. Some severe weather may be possible with
large hail currently appear to be the man threat with around
1700 j/kg of MUCAPE and wind shear of 25-30 knots along with
steep lapse rates. Storm motions are forecast to be very slow as
well around 5-10 mph.The NAM is a bit slower with the shortwave
which would then lead to the potential for overnight storms.
This will be something to keep an eye on as this is when
moisture is forecast to be increasing which would allow for the
potential for severe weather overnight into Monday morning. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

***Synopsis***

Monday morning, ridging is favored overhead at 500-mb. This
looks to transition into southwesterly flow as broad troughing
develops across the Western United States throughout the day.
GEFS and EC 500- mb mean-spread guidance favors this upper-level
pattern to persist through the end of the forecast period. A
shortwave system embedded in this southwesterly flow looks to
impact the forecast region Tuesday through Thursday as well.

***Monday***

A surface low pressure traversing the forecast area Monday
morning may support northerly surface winds early in the day,
though GEFS and EC members suggest the formation of a weak,
broad surface low across the west during the afternoon. This
would allow surface winds to have a southerly component by the
evening hours. Even so, high temperatures on Monday are still
forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Showers may develop across
portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening as well. The
favored zone for convection appears to be along a warm front
associated with the initial surface low passing through the
area. LREF guidance suggests that these showers may be
associated with up to 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE (a measure
of atmospheric instability). However, the same guidance
suggests 90th percentile 500-mb winds around 30 kts. While
organized thunderstorms could develop, vertical wind shear may
be lacking. If this is the case, convective mode would likely
stick to thunderstorms that are strong around the time of
initiation, but are brief in nature. Still, severe weather is
possible if 90th percentile or higher winds at 500-mb can be
experienced. GFS model soundings are suggestive of SHIP
(significant hail parameter) values around 1.5, which could
support 2-inch hail in the strongest thunderstorms. Confidence
in a severe weather event on Monday rests around 5-10%.

***Tuesday - Wednesday Evening***

Southerly flow is forecast to remain in place through Wednesday
afternoon ahead of the strong upper-level shortwave trough.
Forecast guidance suggests high temperatures will be hot, with
much of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska between 100 and
105 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. While the southerly return
flow is favored to contain moisture, hot temperatures could keep
relative humidity (RH) values low. Forecast guidance suggests
RH will drop into the low to mid teens Tuesday, and upper
single- digits to mid teens Wednesday. Critical fire weather
conditions may be in place both days. NBM guidance suggests
greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph
Tuesday and Wednesday across much of the County Warning Area
(CWA). This is in addition to LREF guidance suggesting a 30-50%
chance for RH values to drop into criteria for critical fire
weather across Eastern Colorado Tuesday. Dry conditions may
stretch further east Wednesday, as portions of Southwest
Nebraska and Northwest Kansas also have a 30-50% chance for RH
meeting criteria for the hazard, and up to a 75% chance in
portions of Eastern Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed is highest on Wednesday, around 30%.

***Wednesday Night - Friday***

Passage of the upper-level shortwave trough looks to promote a
cold front overnight Wednesday, allowing slightly cooler
temperatures through the remainder of the week. High
temperatures are forecast in the lower to upper 90s Thursday,
and mid 80s to lower 90s Friday. Critical fire weather
conditions may linger into Thursday, with forecast RH values in
the low to mid teens. However, wind gusts do not look to be as
high as Tuesday and Wednesday, with the current forecast in the
20-30 mph range. NBM guidance does still suggest around a 2/3
chance or greater for wind gusts to exceed criteria (25 mph or
greater) for critical fire weather across Eastern Colorado, but
less across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Confidence
in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is much
lower than Tuesday and Wednesday, around 10%. Cooler conditions
on Friday lower the risk for critical fire weather even further.
Chances for precipitation may increase on Friday as well, as
troughing continues to exist to the west. NBM 24-hr
precipitation guidance suggests up to a 25% chance for greater
than 0.1 inches of rain across portions of Northwest Kansas from
Friday`s activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area but with
increasing moisture through the night am monitoring for fog and
stratus overnight. Confidence is highest at MCK for IFR to LIFR
ceilings and some fog. GLD is a bit more conditional as the
signal has consistently remained around 30-60 miles north of
the terminal but an over performance of dew points currently
has my attention. Will leave GLD VFR for now but will watch
closely over the next few hours. Fog and stratus are forecast to
dissipate mid morning but winds are forecast to increase late
morning and through the early evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are forecast
for today across eastern Colorado. After morning fog and stratus for
some of the area, winds are forecast to increase starting around 16Z
at 10-15 mph and increase through the afternoon with sustained winds
around 15-20 mph. A tightening pressure gradient makes me think that
some wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible. Guidance suggests that a
period of stronger mixing should help bring down some drier air
currently favoring western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties in Colorado from around 19-22Z. With high
temperatures forecast in the low to mid 90s humidity values are
forecast to fall into the mid to upper teens for a few hours
during the afternoon. Confidence in briefly critical conditions
especially across the western portion of each county is around
50-60% but confidence in 3 or more hours is only around 20%
which is precluding from the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.
Fuel partners have noted that there has been some green up
across these counties but still have concerns of longer lasting
fuels remaining in place that there is still the concern for
some fire threat. Also do have some concern for dry lightning
during the afternoon hours from around 21-02Z. This also does
align well with the SPC ISO DRYT outlook. There is a 30-40%
chance that we do not get the mixing of the lower dew points to
occur and actually keeps PWATS up around 0.9 inches which would
eliminate the dry potential but cloud to ground lighting would
still remain a concern. The biggest question remains is the
amount of coverage and if this threat will even materialize in
Yuma or Kit Carson counties or remain just west along with the
speed of any storms as upshear/downshear vectors are around
15-20 knots, which may be a little to slow.

Fire weather concerns are forecast again mid week as a signal for
hot, breezy and dry conditions continues to be seen Tuesday through
Thursday. High temperatures in the 90s to 100s are forecast to
result in humidity values in the low teens to even single digits
across eastern Colorado and possible into NW Kansas. Fuel
partners have deemed that eastern portions of the CWA has
greened up enough that extreme fire behavior is not a concern.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg