820
FXUS63 KGLD 080506
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1106 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday with
  development favored along a dry line in Colorado. Supercells
  will be possible capable of producing large hail, damaging
  winds and a tornado or two.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday with
  damaging winds and blowing dust the main hazards.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as
  well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and
  adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Current observations show a low amplitude upper ridge over the area
with a larger low/trough to the northwest. At the surface, a low
pressure center remains just west of the area. The ridging and CIN
has kept the shower and storm coverage this evening and early
overnight on the low side. We still have plenty of instability with
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km, and
0-6km shear around 30 kts, so additional showers and storms may be
possible through the night. These would favor north of I-70 where
outflows from a large cluster near the Panhandle of Nebraska was
located during the evening. Even with a somewhat favorable
environment for storms, severe weather is unlikely with the
upper subsidence and the CIN in place. The other thing to keep
an eye on tonight is the potential for fog. While not the
strongest signal due to potential precipitation and outflows in
the area, there could be a few pockets of fog with light
easterly winds forecast and decent amounts of low-level moisture
over the area. Otherwise, temperatures are forecast to drop
into the 60s, with a few 50s in Eastern Colorado if skies can
clear.

Monday is largely dependent on what happens during the morning
hours. The larger trough axis to the northwest is forecast to lift
northwest, potentially bring a shortwave through the High Plains
while deamplifying the ridging. If showers/storms are ongoing or can
develop/maintain due to the moist air mass and slight upper lift, it
would likely change what NW Kansas and SW Nebraska see through the
day. If the showers and storms persist, then cloudy skies and
precipitation would likely keep most of the area on the cooler side
with temperatures in the 80s. Most of the storms would be sub-severe
and help stabilize the environment for later. If the showers/storms
aren`t present, cloud cover should burn off with most of the area
warming into the 90s. This would allow for storms to form in NW
Kansas and SW Nebraska, with severe storms possible as early as noon.

If storms are allowed to form in a relatively clean/favorable
environment, then clusters and supercells are possible. This could
pose a big problem as MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg, mid level lapse rates
around 8-9 C/km, and 0-6km shear around 45-50 kts would support very
large hail. Supercells could potentially produce 3+" hail if robust
enough. A few tornadoes would also be possible as guidance is more
bullish on LCLs around a few thousand feet and 0-1km shear around 10-
20 kts. Winds may also gust up to 80-85 mph with the supercells or
organized clusters. This could also lead to blowing dust with a
wall of dust possible with a strong and organized outflow. Not
all storms would produce the high end hazards, but there could
be more than a couple of instances if multiple supercells
develop.

If the environment is worked over by early showers/storms, Eastern
Colorado could still see the aforementioned hazards with storms
moving in from the higher terrain to the west. The main change is
that the storms likely wouldn`t make it far through the area and
severe storms would be unlikely to develop over NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska.

The overnight hours would see any showers and storms steadily push
out of the area to the east. Mid to high level cloud cover would
likely persist over the area with the upper southwesterly flow,
helping to keep the area insulated and temperatures in the 60s.

Tuesday, a reinforcing upper trough is forecast to push in from the
northwest while the original wave ejects off to the north. As it
does so, it is forecast to bring another trough axis near the
Plains. This would cause the surface low pressure to deepen and push
off to the east, more over the area. As it does so, winds are
forecast to strengthen and shift to out of the southwest. Speed are
currently forecast to be around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 30-50
mph range. The highers speeds should favor those along the Colorado
border. The southwest winds are also forecast to bring in a dryline
and dry the air over much of the area. This combination of strong
wind and dry air are forecast to produce critical fire weather
conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most counties
along the Colorado border with the risk for very high fire danger.
Burning is not advised as fires would likely be very hard to control.
In conjunction with this, the influx of warm air is forecast to
allow temperatures to reach the 100s across most of the area.
Thankfully, the drier air should keep the overall heat risk down with
apparent temperatures lower than the actual temperatures. Still,
take extra caution if you are spending any extend period of time
outside.

During the afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire
up again with the trough axis and dryline helping to provide
additional lift. The lower moisture availability and forecast lower
0-6km shear around 30-35 kts are forecast to have the storms be more
pulse in nature. This should limit the chances for severe weather,
except when it comes to wind gusts. While there is little signal for
widespread strong gusts, the drier air near the surface could help
stronger cold pools develop. Some guidance suggests peak wind gusts
could get to 80 mph. This would again lead to a concern for
blowing dust and potential walls of dust with good organized
outflows.

Tomorrow night, any lingering showers or storms should end close to
midnight as the trough axis swings into the Plains and pushes the
better forcing to the east. It should also push any lingering
moisture to the east as well and allow for clearer skies. In spite
of the skies clearing, the warm temperatures during the day combined
with strong winds around 15-25 mph are forecast to keep temperatures
up a bit. Locales in the eastern portion of the area could stay
above 70 while those further west close to 60 or just below 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

***Synopsis***

Broad troughing at 500-mb looks to be moving in overhead Wednesday
morning, with several shortwave troughs embedded in the larger
feature. These shortwave features would each have their own
attendant surface low pressure. A weak cold front looks to be
traversing the forecast area Wednesday morning, before the second
shortwave passes Wednesday evening to provide a stronger cold front.
Northerly winds may persist on Thursday through the afternoon hours.
Forecast guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Friday, as GEFS
amd EC members are about evenly split on whether a surface high or
low will be in place across the Central High Plains. GEFS and EC 500-
mb mean spread guidance does suggest that another trough may be
slowly moving south-southeastward out of Southwest Canada beginning
Friday, which may support the low a bit more. However, even if the
surface low is able to form, the exact location is uncertain, which
could influence our weather as well.


***Wednesday/Thursday***

High temperatures are forecast to lower a bit Wednesday, but are
still in the 90s across the County Warning Area (CWA). Hot
conditions in addition to northwesterly to westerly surface flow
throughout the day would promote dry conditions, with relative
humidities (RH) in the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather
conditions may be in place Wednesday afternoon, with forecast wind
gusts as high as 30 mph. The greatest risk appears to be across
Eastern Colorado, where LREF guidance shows a 40% chance or greater
for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard, alongside NBM
guidance which suggests a 50% chance or greater for wind gusts to
meet criteria. These probabilities may reach as high as an 85%
chance for RH and 90% chance for wind gusts in far western
portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado.
Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Wednesday has
decreased a bit, but is still around 15-20% for these Eastern
Colorado Counties.

As northerly winds look to persist on Thursday, highs are forecast
to drop further into the 80s. However, dry conditions are favored to
remain, with RH values in the low to mid-teens again. Wind gusts are
forecast to weaken throughout the day Thursday, but could still be
capable of 25-30 mph in some areas, particularly in Eastern
Colorado. This zone still has a 1 in 3 chance or greater that wind
gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather during the early
afternoon hours, and as high as a 80% chance for Northwest Yuma
County. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed
Thursday is only around 5% or so since wind gusts are forecast to
weaken through the afternoon, and not meet the 3-hr duration for the
warning.


***Friday-Sunday***

Again, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon, with
uncertainty in whether a surface high or surface low will be present
across the Central High Plains. NBM 75th-25th percentile spread in
maximum temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees on Friday, and 10 to 20
degrees on Saturday, with 75th percentile values in the 100s both
days in some locations. This would be more in line with solutions
showing a surface low near the CWA, establishing southerly flow
across the area. This solution may also be associated with
precipitation. NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests that
activity between Friday and Saturday combined has up to a 50% chance
for greater than 0.1 inches to fall. This activity may be associated
with showers and thunderstorms, as LREF guidance suggests anywhere
from a few hundred to a few thousand J/kg of CAPE (a measure of
instability) to be present. Thunderstorms in this scenario could
become severe if LREF 75th percentile or greater 500-mb winds can be
experienced (35 kts or greater). Otherwise, storms would likely be
weaker in nature.

If the surface high is allowed to form, temperatures could fall as
low as the upper 70s Friday and Saturday. Precipitation may also be
lacking under this scenario. While GEFS and EC members are split on
which scenario occurs, GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance
shows a trough approaching the forecast area from the northwest,
which could slightly favor the solution with the surface low
setting up near our area. Going into Sunday, cooler conditions
appear more likely regardless of which scenario occurs, as the
high either remains in place or the low moves off to the south,
allowing a cold front to cross the area. Sunday`s highs are
currently forecast in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through most of
the night, though KGLD may have ceilings drop below 500ft and
KMCK may see storm activity around 10-15Z. Both conditions have
at least a 30-50% chance of occurring. During the day tomorrow,
showers and storms could linger over KMCK all day, though the
more likely scenario is that they break after 15-16Z. VFR
conditions should return by the late morning. Be aware though
that additional storms could develop as early as 18Z. These have
the possibility of being supercells with very large hail, wind
gusts above 60 kts, and maybe a tornado. The storm risk is
forecast to linger through 06Z, with a peak around 21-03Z. There
would then be another brief break before ceilings drop again
late in the night tomorrow.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ001-013-027.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...KAK