394
FXUS63 KGLD 021945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
145 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are forecast again this afternoon and
  evening favoring locations along and west of a Trenton to
  Leoti line. Large hail and damaging winds are again the
  primary threats.

- Severe storms potential continues Sunday and Monday but appear
  to be more isolated in nature, but higher potential for
  supercells.

- Gradual warm up through Monday, then hot and dry for Tuesday
  through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Shortwave rotating around the the periphery of a ridge over the
Four Corners will move from northeast Colorado to southwest
Nebraska tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop by around 22-00z in far northeast Colorado and then move
into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska early this evening.
A narrow axis of moderate instability, up to 3000 j/kg, will be
oriented along the Kansas/Colorado border area along with
30-35 kts of deep layer shear. Initial storms in that area will
have the best chances of becoming severe, including the
potential for a few supercells, capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Instability will
rapidly drop as the storms move east, but may still maintain
severe levels with no loss of shear. However, as they tend to
merge into clusters will see the main hazard transition to
damaging wind gusts by the time they reach Highway 25. Locally
heavy rainfall may also occur, mainly south of Interstate 70
where there is a weak signal for 1-2" of rain in a 3 hour period
through about 06z. Storms move fairly quickly east and out of
the area by 06z-07z with only slim chances for a lingering
shower or storm overnight.

The upper ridge amplifies into the central Rockies Sunday
afternoon placing the area under northwest flow. Appears to be a
weak embedded wave but overall forcing is rather weak compared
to previous days. The instability axis at peak heating will be
located roughly along a McCook to Garden City line and include
most of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska with up to 2500
j/kg of SBCAPE. Deep layer shear from the HREF mean remains
around 30 kts, but there is a slight increase on the western
periphery of the instability axis to around 40 kts late in the
afternoon. Storms are forecast to develop by early to mid
afternoon, but due to the weak forcing anticipate only isolated
to widely scattered coverage. A severe storm or two will be
possible, mainly wind and hail, but should something develop on
the western side of the instability axis in the higher shear
area a brief tornado might be possible. Storms dissipate fairly
early Sunday evening by 03-04z.

Upper ridge axis moves slightly east on Monday and will be over
eastern Colorado. The area remains moderately unstable with
around 40 kts of shear in place. Will not take much from any
embedded wave in the northwest flow for an isolated supercell
to develop in that environment. However, models are mostly dry
at this time so will keep POPs below 20% and reevaluate with
later CAM runs.

Ridge flattens on Tuesday with more of a zonal flow over the
central and northern plains. Main storm track appears to remain
north of the area however so will keep it dry for now.

Temperatures will gradually warm under the strengthening ridge
with mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday then 90s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Upper ridge remains parked over the Four Corners through the
remainder of the week but gets nudged south next weekend as a
strong trough digs into the northern Rockies. This will
translate to above normal temperatures and slim to none
precipitation chances through Friday. Some models try to push a
cold front through on Saturday but may be over zealous and
weakening the ridge too much. However, that possible scenario
will introduce some precipitation chances and perhaps a modest
break in temperatures. Confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

MVFR ceilings and minor reductions in smoke may persist into the
early afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK before clearing. VFR will
prevail through the afternoon and early evening before storms
move in from the west. If directly impacted by a thunderstorm,
either terminal could see brief gusty winds and reductions in
visibility in rain. A brief period of low clouds will be
possible around sunrise Sunday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024