971
FXUS63 KGLD 012050
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier conditions and warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Windy conditions Friday afternoon in northeast Colorado where
  southerly winds may gust up to 45 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The system that brought heavy rain and associated flooding to the
region is finally starting to wind down this afternoon. As of early
this afternoon, most of heavy rain has ended but wrap-around showers
are still moving through the far southeast Kansas forecast counties
as the whole line slowly pushing southwards. Rainfall totals from
this event had a wide swath of 2-4+" extending from SE Colorado to
SW Nebraska. The highest amounts were generally from Greeley County
to Decatur County in Kansas. Elsewhere around the forecast area,
locations received anywhere from about 0.10" to 1.75". While the
rain will move out entirely later this afternoon, flooded roads
remain a concern as water gradually recedes.

The nearly stacked low will weaken through the day as it almost gets
pinched off from the westerlies as high pressure begins to rebuild
over southern California and the Four Corners region before nudging
into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As this system moves
off, a surface high will allow for light and variable winds
overnight and clearing skies. The question for tonight will be
how low do overnight lows drop and given the recent rainfall,
will areas of fog develop by tomorrow morning. If fog remains as
bay, temperatures look to fall into the lower to mid
40s...though a few locations may see a brief drop into the upper
30s. If fog does develop tonight, it will help to keep
temperatures slightly warmer. Any fog that does develop will
quickly mix out tomorrow morning.

By tomorrow evening the surface high will extend from the OK/TX
Panhandles across Kansas and into Iowa as the upper ridge broadens
across the southwest CONUS. A shortwave trough moving through the
northern stream flow and the resultant lee troughing over the
Northern High Plains will help to tighten the pressure gradient
across the Tri-State area Friday into Saturday. Southerly winds will
increase in response with gusts of up to 45 mph for northwest
Colorado tomorrow afternoon and evening, and breezy conditions with
gusts of 15 to 25 mph elsewhere. Warmer and drier conditions will
also return for the area for the weekend with temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s by Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Synoptically, very little has changed for Sunday through Thursday.
For the majority of this period, our upper level flow is forecast to
remain from the northwest. Near the Four Corners region, an upper
level ridge is expected to stay near stationary as various troughs
move troughs move along the US/Canada border with the jet stream.
Guidance continues to indicate that a shortwave trough could move
through the Tri-State Area around Tuesday and Wednesday. However,
there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track and
strength of the shortwave.

High temperatures for the week are currently forecast to be in the
80s for the majority of the period. Currently, the coolest day is
forecast to be Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. The warmest
day is forecast to be Tuesday with highs in the 80s across most of
the County Warning Area (CWA). Precipitation chances for this period
remain quite low, with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 5-
10% each day. However, if the potential shortwave moving through on
Tuesday/Wednesday continues to intensify, there could be a slight
increase in PoPs.

Winds for the period look to remain mainly under 20 mph, with gusts
under 25 mph out of the south. Monday afternoon still appears to be
the windiest day, with sustained southernly winds around 10-20 mph
and gusts reaching 25-35 mph. Looking at Deterministic guidance, the
Canadian-NH, ECMWF, and GFS all show an 850 mb jet set up over the
Tri-State area oriented south to north, however each model have the
jet at different intensities. Ensemble guidance remains in slight
disagreement on where the highest gusts will be seen. The LREF
favors more widespread gusts of 25-30 mph across the CWA, where as
the NBM has the gusts of 25-35 mph primarily west of Hwy 83 and north
of Hwy 40. Fire weather concerns remain low for the CWA, as relative
humidity values generally stay above 25% on Monday and recent
precipitation will likely keep soil moisture fairly saturated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

KGLD and KMCK will see ceilings rise and scatter out this
afternoon as the system moves east. Gusty north-northeast winds
will remain gusty through about 00Z becoming light and variable
overnight. VFR conditions will then prevail through this
evening as skies clear and surface high pressure moves in. The
combination of clear skies, light winds, and recent rainfall
will allow for patchy to areas of fog to develop after 06-08Z.
Fog will mix out tomorrow morning by 15-17Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Pietrycha