656
FXUS63 KGLD 170303
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
903 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible again Sunday. The main threat
  would be wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. A secondary
  area could be across extreme northwest Kansas and southwest
  Nebraska this evening.

- Low chances for severe storms continue into Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast to continue through
  Monday before brief warm up occurs again on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure broadens out across the souther Plains which
has blocked our moisture into place for another day. A weak
700mb frontogenesis band moved through during the morning hours
which brought additional cloud cover back to western portions
of the forecast area. Scattered to broken cloud cover is
forecast to continue for most of the day which is forecast to
help keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the
forecast area.

A shortwave is forecast to move off of the Rockies. Severe weather
may be possible again but similar to today not impressive as we may
not be able to warm up enough for storms to sustain themselves and
may not even reach the forecast area this afternoon due to the
additional inhibition with this the cloud cover. I`m keeping storm
chances in the forecast as our convective temperatures are
fairly low only in the mid 70s which we we should be able to
breach that with a little bit of clearing. Should any storms
form or move into the area large hail around quarter size and
wind gusts of 50-60 mph are the primary hazard. With
anticyclonic hodographs if any storm were to exhibit
supercellular nature left movers would be favored supporting
more of the hail threat. Wind threat would be isolated given
meager lapse rates. Some guidance also indicates a potential
second zone of storms moving in from the Nebraska
Panhandle/Cheyenne Ridge vicinity on the exit region of a weak
500mb jet. There could be some severe threat with this as well
should it develop with the same hazards as before, although wind
threat may be a tad bit higher. Not as concerned about flash
flooding as previous days as storms will be a bit more confined
and should be moving at a decent speed with Corfidi vectors
around 25-40 knots. Am seeing the potential for some
redevelopment across southwestern portions of the area across
Cheyenne (CO) and Greeley county

Monday, overall a similar synoptic pattern is forecast to today with
the only difference being a slightly more amplified developing
ridge across the western CONUS. Due to the mid level high
slightly expanding a bit further north I did nudge up our
southern counties a few degrees into the upper 80s to low 90s
versus the mid 80s for the remainder of the area. May need to
watch for some even slightly higher temperatures across Cheyenne
county Colorado as winds may become a bit more southwesterly
during the afternoon with a developing low across Colorado as
mixing may be a little bit stronger.

Another day and another chance for storms for the area Monday
afternoon. A subtle convergence may be able to develop as high
pressure is forecast to be across eastern Kansas and the above
mentioned low pressure across Colorado develops. A conditional
threat for the afternoon hours is seen during the afternoon
hours along said convergence zone draped from roughly Wray down
through Leoti. Do think a storm or two develops later in the
afternoon hours as a subtle 500mb vorticity maxima within the
northwest flow moves through. A bit better environment for
large hail is seen as wind shear is forecast to be better than
today around 30-35kts along with steeper lapse rates. Hail
around ping pong ball to golf ball would be possible if we could
get a sustained and deep updraft but quarters would be most
likely along with 50-60 mph wind gusts. Any severe threat would
wane after sunset as we lose diurnal heating. Winds from the
southwest are forecast to continue through the night which may
be able to help keep overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday, our southwest winds during the morning are forecast to lead
to a rapid warmup as ridging amplifies some across the western
CONUS. Our warmup should be short lived as a cold front is forecast
to be situated across the northern Plains. High temperatures for the
day are forecast in the 90s. If eastern portions of the area can
remain in southwesterly flow then a run towards the triple digits
could occur. `

During the afternoon a  surface low is forecast to develop across
eastern Colorado and lead to weaker winds for most with the
exception being across the eastern CWA where winds are forecast to
remain from the southwest. There remains some disagreement with low
positioning as GEFS tries to pull it into western Kansas during the
afternoon versus the ECMWF ensembles with the majority of it
remaining in Colorado, but a few members does put it into Kansas. If
it pulls east then any threat for rainfall and severe weather
decreases, if it can remain to the west in Colorado then locales
along and east of a Yuma to Goodland to Grinnell line has a chance
of storms, possibly severe with the higher chance further east you
go. A caveat top decreasing precipitation chances is the cold
front crashing sooner which in itself could create some
additional storms, but currently think would lead to more a wind
threat given the linear forcing and meager wind shear since the
low would theoretically be further away. Currently think the
front moving through faster is the lesser of the scenarios at
this time. Overall, current thinking is that the low remains in
Colorado with the front moving through during the early to mid
evening as a cluster of storms with wind the main concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Northwesterly flow is favored overhead at 500-mb Wednesday morning
according to GEFS and EC ensembles. A shortwave trough embedded in
the northwesterly flow is forecast to move through the area
throughout the day. GEFS and EC members are in support of a surface
low at the leading edge of this shortwave already past the forecast
area by morning, which would favor a northerly component to the
surface winds. High temperatures are favored to be cooler than
Tuesday, in the low to mid 80s. In addition, thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday ahead of a secondary cold front. NBM 24 hr
precipitation guidance shows the best chances for greater than
0.1 inches of rain across Eastern Colorado and Southwestern
Nebraska, with some areas at a 50-60% chance. These
thunderstorms would be supported by a modest 40-50 kt jet streak
at 500-mb, particularly across northern portions of the
forecast area. LREF guidance is in support of this solution,
showing a two in three chance that sfc-500mb wind shear will
exceed 30 kts for areas along and north of I-70, and as high as
an 80-90% chance across Northeast Colorado and Southwest
Nebraska. As such, severe thunderstorms, particularly across
this zone where wind shear would be highest, are possible. The
favored mode for these storms are currently clusters and/or line
segments, as supported by vertical wind shear parallel to the
incoming cold front alongside recent RRFS data showing a cluster
and/or line segment coming through the area during the
evening/overnight hours. The primary hazard with these storms
would be strong winds, with a secondary hazard of large hail.
Confidence in severe weather occurring is highest north of I-70,
around 10%.

Northwesterly flow is forecast to persist into Thursday, as ridging
continues to build off to the west. While surface winds may still be
out of the northeast during the day, they are forecast to mainly
stay below 20 mph. This would allow sufficient warming to take place
Thursday afternoon as long as clouds clear out. Otherwise,
temperatures would be able to remain cooler Thursday. Forecast highs
are in the mid to upper 80s, though could reach into the 90s if
sufficient heating can take place. Showers may develop during the
evening hours, though NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests less
than a 20% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across nearly
the entire forecast area. LREF guidance continues to show a two in
three chance that vertical wind shear will be above 30 kts along and
north of I-70 Thursday, which may allow some storms to become
severe. However, given the anticipated low coverage of storms
Thursday, confidence in severe weather occurring is 5% or less.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to be dominated by warmer
temperatures as ridging from the west moves in overhead. Highs
Friday through Sunday are forecast in the 90s. Conditions are also
forecast to be drier, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance continues
to show a 20% chance or less for greater than 0.1 inches of rain
across the forecast area. Additionally, relative humidities (RH) may
drop a little bit with the increase in temperatures, but are not
forecast to drop below 20%. We may see RH values drop further into
the teens if southwesterly surface flow can develop across the area.
This would be possible given the persisting northwesterly upper-
level flow to the north and east of the forecast region, which would
allow surface lows to track across this area. Even so, fire weather
conditions are not expected, as wind gusts are forecast to remain
below 25 mph all three days. However, if RH values can drop into the
teens and a few thundershowers could develop, there would be a risk
for dry lightning to start fires.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for both terminals through the first
half of the TAF period, with winds gradually turning from easterly
to southerly. There is about a 10-20% chance that a thunderstorm
from the northwest enters the vicinity of KGLD, but confidence is
currently not high enough that it will survive to KGLD to include it
in the TAF. Thunderstorms are not in the forecast for KMCK.
Additionally, some early morning stratus is possible from 12-14z at
KMCK, and 12-15z at KGLD. However, HREF guidance is only showing 10%
probabilities that the stratus will fully materialize to create
ceilings at either airport.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Davis