214
FXUS63 KGLD 080626
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1226 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is again forecast this morning mainly along
  and north of Interstate 70.

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the
  area. Wind gusts up to 70 mph is the primary hazard.

- A few hours of critical fire weather conditions are forecast
  late this morning and afternoon for counties along the
  Kansas/Colorado state line. Dry lightning is also a concern
  for fire starts with any storm that develops.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

- Air temperatures in the 100s are forecast today through
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

High pressure is situated across the Rockies with a weak surface
trough in place similar to the past few nights. A 35-45 knot low
level jet is forecast to increase through the evening and overnight.
Some guidance shows winds increasing a little bit, but with the
nocturnal inversion in place and no clear cut feature to help winds
penetrate the inversion do have my doubts if the wind will increase
or not. If winds were to mix down, it wouldn`t be substantial but
sustained winds of 10-15 mph and some gusts around 25 mph would
occur. A boundary is noted on radar along Highway 36 this
evening and is forecast to move slightly to the south. North of
the boundary some moisture looks to pool up leading to another
potential for fog along and north of the boundary. Another
boundary is seen on satellite and in observations across central
Nebraska with localized areas of upper 60s to low 70 dew
points. This may be the focus of where any potential fog would
lie. The overall signal is a lot weaker than the previous nights
but do see some higher surface to 1km mixing ration differences
which suggests that some localized dense fog may again be
possible. Current visibility output is not very optimistic in
this occurring but the HREF does suggest around a 10% chance of
half mile or less visibility occurring. Due to the is have opted
to bring in patchy fog into the forecast.

Saturday, the high pressure is forecast to broaden out across the
area as temperatures are forecast to reach the 100s across most if
not all of the area. Have a growing concern of mixing overachieving
leading to lower dew points and higher air temperatures. There is a
large spread from the 25-75th percentile high temperatures for the
day ranging from the mid 90s to the mid 100s. I believe this is
due to the questions on what the moisture is going to do.
Anywhere the dew point plummets then air temperatures could
exceed 105 degrees. NAM surface to 30mb AGL dew points suggests
corridors of drier air across eastern Colorado and into Sherman,
Wallace, Greeley counties where humidity could have the
potential to fall into the low teens and even locally single
digits. Winds are forecast to be around 15- 20 mph sustained
with sporadic gusts of 25-30 mph leading to elevated to locally
critical fire weather concerns. An advancing surface trough may
also increase wind during the mid to late afternoon even higher
but storms brings a question to if humidity would remain low.

To the storms now, confidence is higher than previous days in storms
forming due to the trough and there is also a 500 and 700mb
shortwave moving through the area during the afternoon. The issue is
that these storms will be high based and with a very dry surface
rainfall is forecast to be minimal. Due to this will keep chances of
rainfall in the 15-24% range. Scattered storms are forecast to
develop around 19-20Z and move off to the east. With inverted V
soundings in place damaging winds up to 70 mph looks to be the
primary hazard with these storms. Guidance is a bit mixed on the
amount of wind shear with the HRRR showing around 15-20 kts and
NAMNEST ranging from 30-40 kts. If the NAMNEST is correct then large
hail and possibly accumulating hail would also be a concern as well.
Due to the high based nature think hail potential would max out
around ping pong ball as worst case scenario at this time. With
the wind gusts and the dry and hot conditions. Blowing dust is
also a concern as well. Think the most likely outcome would be
localized dust storms due to the high mixing heights as the
dust would filter out. If an organized outflow, or if the
damaging wind gusts could occur further to the east where mixing
heights are forecast to be lower then a more organized dust
threat and potentially a haboob could be on the table. We do
have a scenario where winds may struggle to materialize and
would not be as high due to minimal amounts of CAPE; if this
were to occur then our dust threat would drop drastically.
Tagging onto the fire weather in the previous paragraph. With
the dry air and low surface humidity do have concern for dry
lightning and lightning induced fire starts. So it may be
something to keep in the back of your mind.

A 2nd round of convection may move across northeast Colorado and
into extreme NW Kansas during the early evening hours before waning
as we lose diurnal heating. Wind again would be the main concern.
Rainfall chances are forecast to end during the mid to late evening
hours as a surface low sets up on top of the area and is forecast to
lead to weakening winds and a gradual shift to the southwest which
will set up another day of warmth for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Beginning Sunday, we transition to more of a zonal upper-level flow
with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures
are forecast to remain unseasonably warm for the county warning area
(CWA) through Tuesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. Sunday is
forecast to be the hottest day with the entire CWA expected to reach
above 100 degrees. A weak cold front moving through Tuesday night
will start a cooling trend with high temperatures in the 90s
Wednesday and further dropping in the 80s by Friday.

Starting Sunday evening through at least Friday, there is a
chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight due to embedded
shortwave passages. Late Wednesday, we begin to transition to
more of a northwest upper-level flow with increased upper-level
support from a jet streak overhead. This will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday through the
remainder of the forecast period. Best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be in the late evenings and overnight hours
Wednesday and Thursday with PoPs around 50-70%. Models are
showing overall weak instability, but small hail and strong
winds are still possible with any storms that form.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area. On the
nose of a surface high across northeastern parts of the forecast
area fog and stratus are forecast to develop again around 9-10Z.
Currently MCK is favored as dew points in the low 70s have
advected in already. Have concerns about wind being a little too
strong that may affect how low fog gets but do think there is
potential again for dense fog and very low ceilings. GLD is a
bit on the iffier side as they are forecast to be on the
southern fringe of the threat. Any fog is forecast to end by
14-15Z as breezy winds develop across the area. GLD is forecast
to be the breeziest. Be on the lookout for storms resulting in
strong winds and lightning Saturday afternoon. Confidence was
too low in impacts to either terminal to include in this TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1211 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

00Z guidance suggests that mixing may be strong and deep enough
(up to 14,000 feet AGL) today for dew points to fall into the
low 40s to even mid 30s as temperatures soar into the 100s. This
is forecast to lead to humidity values in the low to mid teens;
some localized single digit values may be possible as well.
Sustained winds are forecast from mainly the south at 15-20 mph.
A lack of a 700mb jet suggests that mainly a high sustained
wind is most likely but with the 850 mb jet being the prime
source of wind some instances of 25-30 mph wind gusts are
possible. Guidance suggests that the lowest humidity values
would favor Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Greeley, Wallace and
Sherman counties. There is concern for some period of overlap of
these conditions. Confidence is around 80-90% in at least one
hour of these conditions occurring but falling to around 40-50%
for 3 or more hours to warrant a Red Flag Warning due to the
potential for storms during the early afternoon. With the dry
conditions in place I do have concerns of dry lightning and the
potential for fire starts from this due to how dry it has been
as of late. CAPE values under 1000 j/kg lead me to believe that
most if not all storms would minimal to moderate amounts of
lightning but not a high amount like what occurred earlier in
the week. PWATS this afternoon are under an inch and with how
dry it is have questions of how much rain can fall with any
storm. Storm motions may be just slow enough that if a fire were
to start then any rainfall could help mitigate the spread. I
did contemplate a Red Flag Warning with lightning factor
included but due to the slower motions opted to hold off. Be
aware of however wind gusts around 70 mph along with dust and
poor air quality.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg