916
FXUS63 KGLD 312303
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
503 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers/storms are possible during the afternoon and
  evening today, but severe weather is not expected.

- Fog looks to make a return tonight, into tomorrow morning,
  leading to potentially hazardous travel conditions.

- The unsettled pattern looks to continue over the next week,
  leading to another couple of low-end chances at showers and
  storms along with near average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Today`s temperatures will be stunted in the northeastern portions
of the CWA where the stratus is lingering, likely only making it
into the mid 70s.However, the southwestern CWA will warm to around
80. A low over Nebraska will be pushing farther east, taking a lot
of our moisture with it, helping clear out the remaining fog and
stratus, and keeping PoPs this afternoon fairly low. That being
said, we are still stilling under northwesterly flow aloft, which
creates an unsettled patter. Around 0Z, a weak 500 mb shortwave
trough could spark some showers and light storms. The northeastern
portions of the area (Trenton, NE to Quinter, KS), will see a 15-25%
chance of afternoon showers and weak storms. There is also a 10-15%
chance a weak line of storms will fire off in northern Yuma county
and proceed to the southeast. All impacts from this precipitation
look to remain sub-severe due to weak mid-level lapse rates and
instability. The strongest storms look to conclude by 3Z.

Overnight temperatures will cool into the 50s with the eastern
portions of the area remaining in the upper 50s. Another night of
stratus and fog is forecast as a surface high of Nebraska looks to
push moisture back into the eastern portions of the area. Red Willow
and surrounding counties look to be in the bullseye for the worst
conditions overnight, which could (40%) include widespread dense
fog. Low stratus looks to form before 6Z and persist until about
noon, stunting tomorrow`s warming. The worst fog looks to remain
along and northeast of a line from Dundy county to Graham county.
Counties to the southwest of this line can still expect some fog,
but not as bad.

Tomorrow, temperatures look to be fairly similar to today`s.
Locations that remain under the fog and stratus will likely remain
in the 70s, but the southwestern CWA will warm into the mid 80s.
Tomorrow afternoon into the evening, we could see some scattered
showers coming off the Palmer Divide, but severe weather is not
expected. Tomorrow night, looks to cool into the low to mid 50s and
fog once again will be possible, although it may form earlier in the
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The general unsettled pattern in the long-term is expected to remain
as we remain under northwesterly flow. We will have a high pressure
system over the Four Corners region with low pressure to the
northeast of the Great Plains. This will support moderate
temperatures, like in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and a few chances at
precipitation. The main limiting factors to precipitation over the
next week will be mid-level moisture return and instability. We do
look to have a few cold fronts moving through the area, which would
provide enough lift to start off precipitation, if the other two
ingredients are in place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KGLD for the majority of the
night before fog and stratus impact the terminal and drop it
down into MVFR to IFR status for a couple hours near sunrise.
The current VFR conditions at KMCK will begin to deteriorate
much sooner (~5Z-6Z) as the fog and stratus push in, with
ceilings and visibilities dropping down into LIFR to even VLIFR
status by ~8Z. By ~17-18Z tomorrow, conditions will improve once
again to VFR.

Otherwise, KGLD is expected to see some northerly wind gusts up
to 18-20kts during the afternoon and early evening hours
tomorrow.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Melto