929
FXUS63 KGLD 252349
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low to medium (20-60%) chance of rain continues into late
   tonight, with scattered to numerous light to moderate
   showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms likely.

 - Much drier and considerably warmer temperatures are expected
   tomorrow and Sunday with breezier conditions resuming
   tomorrow afternoon through Sunday afternoon, most notably
   further west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Southerly, moist low-level flow ahead of a surface trough and some
divergence aloft are expected to bring some unsettled weather this
afternoon and overnight, with high temperatures this afternoon in
the 60s/70s. First, a weak mid/upper level shortwave trough passes
northeastward over the region, exiting by the early nighttime hours
tonight, increasing chances of rain along/south of I-70 and
along/east US-385 to a low to medium (30-60%) chance, highest
further south and east, with scattered to numerous light to moderate
showers and isolated thunderstorms likely. Following, a weak mid-
level disturbance brings a low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain
from west-to-east across the tri-state area this evening into
tonight. All activity is expected to remain sub-severe during the
daytime, though increasing shear (up 20-25 knots), MUCAPE and
slightly steeper lapse rates this evening could lead to isolated
stronger storms across the Colorado counties, perhaps sliding a bit
further east, where there is a low potential for small hail, gustier
winds and heavy rain. Chances of rain diminish west-to-east late
tonight to less than 10% by Saturday morning, with total rainfall
amounts ranging anywhere from a trace to 0.4 of an inch.

Downsloping westerly surface winds behind a departing surface trough
usher in much drier air tomorrow morning, shifting to northwesterly
and increasing to around 15-20 mph, with gusts to 20-30+ mph, near
and west of US-385 by tomorrow afternoon as a 1020-1025 mb surface
high pressure builds over the Colorado Rockies. Additionally, zonal
upper level flow becomes northwesterly tomorrow night as ridging
extends northward, maintaining dry conditions through the remainder
of this weekend. Mostly clear skies tomorrow become a bit cloudier
on Sunday as southwesterly winds establish aloft, downstream of a
trough arriving over California, which should also transition
surface winds back to southeasterly, increasing Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night to as high as 15-30 mph, with gusts to 25-40 mph
possible across the same areas mentioned above (over the western
CWA) by Monday morning. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range above Fire Danger Statement criteria tomorrow
and Sunday, though caution is urged when handling outdoor flames,
particularly across the Colorado counties.

Downslope-compressional heating results in mid/upper 80s across the
western half of the CWA tomorrow while areas further east reach into
the low/mid 80s, highest further west, cooling a few degrees on
Sunday, into the upper 70s over the northeastern counties and
low/mid 80s elsewhere. Overnight lows continue in the mid/upper 50s
and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to be consistent with southwesterly flow
overhead and troughing across the Western United States at 500-mb.
The trough is forecast to move across the Southern and Central
United States Monday and Tuesday, and be located across the 4-
Corners Region by Wednesday morning. However, ensembles continue to
show large amounts of spread on the trailing edge of the trough,
which could suggest a slower eastward progression. Uncertainty
regarding the feature`s eastward movement becomes even more
uncertain beyond Wednesday morning, when model guidance begins to
diverge significantly.

As troughing remains to the west of the forecast region on Monday,
high temperatures are forecast to be warm in the upper 70s and 80s.
However, an active jet streak to the north is expected to be linked
with a cold front approaching the forecast area. Precipitation is
forecast along the front. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests
that most areas north and east of a line from Wray, CO to Leoti, KS
have a 40% chance or greater to receive 0.1 inches of rain or more
Monday. These chances increase to as high as 80% in portions of Red
Willow County. Additionally, some of this activity could be
associated with thunderstorms, as LREF guidance continues to show
scattered areas where chances for surface CAPE (a measure of
atmospheric instability) greater than 1000 J/kg are 1 in 3. The same
guidance shows around a 30-45% chance for sfc-500mb wind shear
greater than 30 kts across most of the forecast area except some
areas of Eastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. As such, a
severe storm or two may be in play, but widespread rain seems to be
the more likely scenario. Confidence in severe weather occurring
Monday afternoon or evening is around 5%.

Cool and wet conditions are forecast Tuesday as the cold front
traverses the region and troughing from the west continues to
approach. High temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 70s
Tuesday. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance also shows all areas in a
50% chance or higher for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Tuesday,
except portions of Northern Yuma County in Colorado and Northwest
Dundy County in Nebraska. This activity is not favored to be related
to thunderstorms, as LREF guidance shows all areas at less than a
20% chance for greater than 1000 J/kg of surface CAPE.

Again, eastward progression of the trough from the west becomes most
uncertain beyond Wednesday morning. However, guidance continues to
show a cyclonically curved jet streak around the base of the trough,
which would favor a deep surface low at the leading edge of the
trough and in the left exit region of the jet. This low may lift
into Central Kansas throughout the day Wednesday, and increase the
likelihood for precipitation and strong northerly winds. Current
forecast temperatures for Wednesday are in the upper 60s to mid 70s,
with NBM precipitation guidance still showing much of the area at a
50% chance or higher for greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Even so,
temperatures may be allowed to drop further due to precipitation and
northerly wind gusts forecast up to 35 mph. Additionally, EC
deterministic and ensemble guidance seems to stall this trough the
most, which would support continued rain and cool temperatures for
the remainder of the forecast period. This could pose a risk for
flash flooding, most particularly Wednesday and Thursday when higher
percentile scenarios from the NBM show between 1 and 2 inches of
rain both days. However, this continues to be a low confidence
scenario, at around 5%. If the trough is able to move through the
area quicker, similar to the mean GEFS solution, warm and dry
conditions may be allowed to return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

KGLD: Overcast conditions at KGLD are currently creating IFR
conditions at the airport. Conditions are expected to remain IFR,
and possibly even drop into LIFR between 05 and 09Z as temperatures
have been lower than expected and southerly flow continues to
reinforce the area with moisture. Fog is also in the forecast with
dewpoint depressions near zero already. IFR conditions are expected
to prevail until about 11Z, when more westerly winds begin to dry
out the lower levels and move the stratus deck out of the area. VFR
conditions are expected to be in place soon after sunrise at 13Z,
prevailing through the remainder of the period.

KMCK: MVFR conditions are currently in place over KMCK due to
stratus. Southeasterly winds at the airport will lead to the
development of IFR ceilings between 02 and 04Z, and LIFR ceilings by
04Z. IFR fog is expected to develop as well. Surface winds are not
expected to have a significant westerly component until around 15Z,
which will allow LIFR conditions to remain in place. Conditions will
begin to rapidly improve as the westerly winds dry out the lower
levels a bit and solar heating begins to dominate. VFR conditions
are expected after 17Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Irish
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Davis