445
FXUS63 KGLD 290505
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1105 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A daily potential for late afternoon and evening storms,
  potentially severe, may continue through the rest of the work
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to end as the
threat for severe weather has diminished. Showers and storms are
forecast to continue through most if not all of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No significant change from prior forecast expectations,
as outlined in the DSS Packet issued shortly before Noon MDT.

Through Tonight: Convective outflow/overturning yesterday
evening-night has modified the hot, stifling airmass in place
over the region the past several days, bringing temperatures
down to near-average for this time of year. Rich low-level
moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to
low 70`s and 850 mb dewpoints 16-19C, persists. Widespread
morning stratus delayed diurnal heating/destabilization over the
Goodland county warning area, and, as of 21Z, some degree of
convective inhibition persists across the majority of the area.
South and east of Goodland, in Logan/Gove counties, where
temperatures are in the mid 90` and surface dewpoints are in the
mid 60`s, diurnal cumulus is notably absent. SPC mesoanalysis
data indicates 850 mb dewpoints ~11 to 14C in that area,
suggesting that shallow moisture may be the culprit. Alternately
or additionally, subsidence on the rear/northwest side of the
departing MCV could be suppressing diurnal cumulus. Other than
weak low-level convergence in southeast CO, there appears to be
very little in the way of forcing over the Tri-State Area. With
this in mind, in-situ convective development is not expected.
Precipitation chances are entirely dependent upon upstream
convection, i.e. ongoing thunderstorms on the higher terrain of
the Palmer Divide/Cheyenne Ridge propagating into the Goodland
CWA, where rich low-level moisture, strong instability
(1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-30 knots of effective deep layer
shear are quite capable of maintaining organized convection.
Right-mover motion this evening is from the N (340-020 @ 5-10
knots). Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent
runs of the HRRR suggest that ongoing convection will largely be
confined to eastern CO, and that convective development east of
the CO-KS border will largely be contingent upon linear
organization and cold-pool consolidation.

Wed-Wed night: Little if any change in the synoptic pattern.
Late evening and early morning convection will, once again,
modify environmental conditions over the region, lending
considerable uncertainty to the precipitation forecast. Broadly
speaking, expect that late afternoon storms will develop along
portions of the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer
Divide.. and that activity will tend to propagate toward the S
or SE, i.e. eastern CO stands the best chance to see
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

***Thursday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb height ensembles still show a broad
high/ridge across much of the United States Thursday morning. At
the same time, a shortwave trough traveling around the ridge
anticyclonically is forecast to be overhead. A surface low at
the leading edge of the shortwave will allow a cold front to
traverse the Great Plains throughout the day. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible at the leading edge of the cold
front, though are currently not expected to be severe. LREF
guidance suggests only a 25% chance or less that sfc-500mb wind
shear will exceed 30 kts, with the highest chances in Southwest
Nebraska and along US-283 in Kansas. GFS and EC model soundings
support this solution, showing less than 30 kts of 0-6 km wind
shear in this zone. However, latest GFS and NAMNST model
soundings do show an inverted-V up to about 3 km, which may
indicate microburst potential with storms. Confidence in storm
coverage is low at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation
guidance suggests only up to a 1 in 3 chance to receive greater
than 0.1 inches of rain across the forecast area. Confidence in
severe weather occurring is around 5% Thursday.

***Friday/Saturday***

Thursday`s cold front looks to begin eroding the strong ridge
across the Great Plains, moving the ridge axis westward over the
Four- Corners Region by Friday morning. Flow at 500-mb over the
forecast region is favored to be northwesterly to northerly
through Saturday. As such, highs are forecast to slightly drop
into the low to mid 90s Friday, and upper 80s to lower 90s
Saturday. A surface high in association with the ridge looks to
be to the north of the forecast area, and may establish
southerly winds across Eastern Colorado Friday evening, with
easterly flow across Western Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. As
such, showers may develop across Eastern Colorado Friday. Again,
coverage is uncertain at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation
guidance suggests less than a 25% chance for greater than 0.1
inches of rain across most of this zone. However, strengthening
of the shortwave trough to the east may support the development
of a 500-mb jet streak over the region. This is reflected in
LREF sfc-500mb wind shear guidance, which shows a 40-60% chance
of wind shear greater than 30 kts across Eastern Colorado. If
thunderstorms are able to take advantage of this, they may be
allowed to become severe. Even so, confidence in severe weather
Friday evening is about 5% due to uncertainty in the coverage.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

The ridge axis is favored to be overhead once again Sunday as a
strong 500-mb trough traversing Southern Canada and the
Northern United States pushes it east. Conditions would warm up
again into the mid and upper 90s Sunday, and upper 90s to lower
100s Monday. However, conditions look to be drier. GEFS 850-mb
guidance shows a weak low in the U.S. Southeast. This would
create northerly flow across the Texas coasts and prevent
moisture from returning to the forecast region. Relative
humidities (RH) may drop into the lower 20s to upper teens
during this period. While this does not meet critical fire
weather criteria (RH<15%), NBM guidance shows a broad region
across Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska with a 50% chance
or higher of experiencing wind gusts over 30 mph both Sunday
and Monday. Considering that fuels are drier across this region,
the potential development of critical fire weather conditions
may be something to keep an eye on going into the weekend.
Additionally, a surface low associated with a trough to the
north may produce a few showers along a cold front Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Noticing a very similar setup to what occurred with stratus and
fog last night as a surface high is getting nudged into the
area. Based on this have concern for IFR and LIFR ceilings and
visibilities. Most fog should it develop should be in the 2-6sm
range but some patchy visibilities down to one quarter mile are
possible. Lingering light rain may disrupt fog potential at MCK
so wasn`t quite as aggressive with that as I was for GLD. Any
fog and stratus is forecast to dissipate mid to late morning.
Winds are forecast to become easterly Wednesday afternoon
sustained around 15kts. Am watching for another threat for
showers and storms affecting GLD towards the latter part of the
period but confidence is not high enough to include a PROB30 at
this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg