904
FXUS63 KGLD 261829
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1229 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and drier today and Sunday with breezier conditions
   this afternoon through Sunday afternoon, most notably
   further west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Drier air will move in behind a departing trough this
morning...helping to scour out any lingering low stratus or fog from
west to east. Warmer and drier temperatures return today and Sunday
with quasi-zonal flow setting up across the inter-mountain west and
Central Plains before transitioning back to southwesterly flow on
Sunday. A cluster of storms moving up into southwest and
southcentral Kansas early this morning is associated with the last
of the shortwave troughs to lift through. This activity will stay
east of the forecast area. Several elevated storms initiated over
the far northeast forecast counties (Red Willow, Decatur, and
Norton) early this morning near the tip of an 850-700 mb jetstreak,
but quickly moved off to the northeast and weakened.

Once the fog and low stratus clear out, skies will remain mostly
sunny the remainder of the day with high temperatures climbing
into the 80s both today and tomorrow. Westerly to northwesterly
winds increase through the morning and afternoon today helping
to advect drier air into the region. Northeast Colorado will see
the strongest winds with gusts of 20-30 mph this afternoon and
relative humidity values dropping into the teens and lower 20s.
Winds will shift back to southeasterly tomorrow allowing low-
level moisture to start creeping back to the west. Fog looks to
redevelop by early Sunday morning across southwest Nebraska and
portions of northwest Kansas. Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will
transition back to southwesterly as the ridge builds over the
Rockies and High Plains as a negatively tilted trough digs
across California Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to be consistent with southwesterly flow
overhead and troughing across the Western United States at 500-mb.
The trough is forecast to move across the Southern and Central
United States Monday and Tuesday, and be located across the 4-
Corners Region by Wednesday morning. However, ensembles continue to
show large amounts of spread on the trailing edge of the trough,
which could suggest a slower eastward progression. Uncertainty
regarding the feature`s eastward movement becomes even more
uncertain beyond Wednesday morning, when model guidance begins to
diverge significantly.

As troughing remains to the west of the forecast region on Monday,
high temperatures are forecast to be warm in the upper 70s and 80s.
However, an active jet streak to the north is expected to be linked
with a cold front approaching the forecast area. Precipitation is
forecast along the front. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests
that most areas north and east of a line from Wray, CO to Leoti, KS
have a 40% chance or greater to receive 0.1 inches of rain or more
Monday. These chances increase to as high as 80% in portions of Red
Willow County. Additionally, some of this activity could be
associated with thunderstorms, as LREF guidance continues to show
scattered areas where chances for surface CAPE (a measure of
atmospheric instability) greater than 1000 J/kg are 1 in 3. The same
guidance shows around a 30-45% chance for sfc-500mb wind shear
greater than 30 kts across most of the forecast area except some
areas of Eastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. As such, a
severe storm or two may be in play, but widespread rain seems to be
the more likely scenario. Confidence in severe weather occurring
Monday afternoon or evening is around 5%.

Cool and wet conditions are forecast Tuesday as the cold front
traverses the region and troughing from the west continues to
approach. High temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 70s
Tuesday. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance also shows all areas in a
50% chance or higher for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Tuesday,
except portions of Northern Yuma County in Colorado and Northwest
Dundy County in Nebraska. This activity is not favored to be related
to thunderstorms, as LREF guidance shows all areas at less than a
20% chance for greater than 1000 J/kg of surface CAPE.

Again, eastward progression of the trough from the west becomes most
uncertain beyond Wednesday morning. However, guidance continues to
show a cyclonically curved jet streak around the base of the trough,
which would favor a deep surface low at the leading edge of the
trough and in the left exit region of the jet. This low may lift
into Central Kansas throughout the day Wednesday, and increase the
likelihood for precipitation and strong northerly winds. Current
forecast temperatures for Wednesday are in the upper 60s to mid 70s,
with NBM precipitation guidance still showing much of the area at a
50% chance or higher for greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Even so,
temperatures may be allowed to drop further due to precipitation and
northerly wind gusts forecast up to 35 mph. Additionally, EC
deterministic and ensemble guidance seems to stall this trough the
most, which would support continued rain and cool temperatures for
the remainder of the forecast period. This could pose a risk for
flash flooding, most particularly Wednesday and Thursday when higher
percentile scenarios from the NBM show between 1 and 2 inches of
rain both days. However, this continues to be a low confidence
scenario, at around 5%. If the trough is able to move through the
area quicker, similar to the mean GEFS solution, warm and dry
conditions may be allowed to return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

GLD: Light to gentle northwesterly winds continue into this
afternoon, gusting as high as 15-20 knots, before becoming light
and variable or calm this evening. Mainly clear skies and VFR
conditions persist through the rest of the 18Z TAF cycle, with
light to gentle northwesterly winds returning tomorrow morning.

MCK: MVFR ceilings continue for the time being, though should
mix out over the next few hours. Light southwesterly winds
persist through this afternoon, becoming light and variable or
calm this evening, while mostly clear skies are expected by
later this afternoon, prevailing into tomorrow. There is a
chance of fog tomorrow late tonight into morning, but guidance
and probabilities are too inconsistent and low to include at
this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Irish