997
FXUS63 KGLD 011132
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon.
  Additional heavy rain is possible for areas generally south of
  Interstate 70 in Colorado and Kansas which could result in
  flash flooding over saturated soils.

- Dry on Friday with windy conditions Friday afternoon in
  northeast Colorado where southerly winds may gust up to 45
  mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Precipitation will continue to wrap around the upper low
centered over southeast Colorado through the overnight hours. It
will be mostly rain, but will see a few thunderstorms through
about 09z before the MUCAPE diminishes. Some flooding will be
possible generally south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 83
in Kansas and Colorado through about 18z, where 3-hr QPF
HREF forecasts show that at least 1" of rain is likely as well
as a low probability, around 10%, of 3". Some redevelopment is
also possible later this morning after 15z and into the early
afternoon as the upper low moves into southern Kansas and
wraparound precipitation bands increase in coverage. This would
be for the general area south of Highway 24 in northwest Kansas.
3-hr probabilities for 1" and 3" amounts are about the same as
earlier, suggesting flash flooding will be possible, especially
considering soils are saturated in many locations. For these
reasons, not planning any changes to the Flood Watch at this
time, though confidence is lower north of Interstate 70 and any
flooding there would likely be isolated. Instability and shear
will both be very weak and not expecting any severe storms. Rain
is expected to move south and out of the area by 00Z this afternoon.


On Friday, an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will
nudge into the area from the west with rising heights. This will
result in mostly sunny and dry conditions. Return flow at the
surface will bring breezy to windy southerly winds by the
afternoon into Colorado and areas north of Interstate 70. Gusts
in northeast Colorado may approach 40-45 mph by late in the
afternoon before diminishing in the early evening.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and tomorrow, though
some modest warming will occur in northeast Colorado on Friday.
Highs will generally be in the 60s both days, with some lower
70s possible on Friday in Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Overall, the upper level synoptic pattern has not changed
significantly. The upper level flow across the Tri-State area
remains mainly from the west to northwest from Saturday until around
Tuesday. During this period, the jet stream remains to the north
near the US/Canada border as various upper level troughs move along
the border. Model guidance remains in agreement showing an upper
level ridge positioned near the Four Corners region. Compared to
yesterday, the Canadian-NH, ECMWF, and GFS have aligned in showing a
shortwave trough moving through the area on Tuesday. While models
agree on the trough`s presence in the region, its exact strength and
size remain somewhat uncertain. Currently, Probability of
Precipitation (PoPs) for Tuesday has slightly increased to 5-15%. If
model trends continue, the trough could further increase Tuesday`s
precipitation chance depending on its intensity.

Regarding high temperatures for the week, values across the Tri-
State region are expected to remain under 80 degrees for the
majority of the period. The warmest days are forecast to be Saturday
and Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. On both days, these
warmer temperatures will primarily be focused in the northwestern
portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). Overall, precipitation
chances remain quite low from Saturday through Wednesday of next
week, with Pops generally around  5-10% each day. Tuesday continues
to feature the "highest" potential, with PoPs of 5-15% dependent on
the upper level trough strength.

Wind continues to be somewhat of a concern for Monday, with
sustained winds currently forecast at 15-25 mph and gusts of 35-45
mph. Guidance indicates that an 850 mb jet streak will likely set up
over the region. Some uncertainty remains regarding the location of
the highest winds speeds. The LREF favors the majority of the CWA
seeing gusts up to 35 mph, while the NBM has the highest gusts up to
45 mph across the northern and western parts of the CWA. Both models
do agree on having around a 5-10% probability of gusts exceeding 50
mph across the Colorado counties. At this time, fire weather
concerns remain low, as relative humidity values are expected to
stay above 25% each day and recent precipitation will likely leave
soil moisture fairly saturated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Low ceilings around 1000ft and rain showers
are forecast through about 14-16Z at each site. Conditions
should improve somewhat quickly once the rain ends, with both
sites likely VFR by 18-20Z. Once the sites clear out, they
should remain clear through the remainder of the period. Expect
winds near the surface to be gusty with gusts around 20-35 kts
through 00Z. After that, speeds should lower to 10 kts or less.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for COZ090>092.
NE...Flood Watch through this afternoon for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...KAK