058
FXUS63 KGLD 260454
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1054 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of Northwest Kansas and
  Southwest Nebraska through Monday. High temperatures are
  forecast to be in the 100s with heat index values in the mid
  to upper 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated,
  including pets and livestock.

- A Heat Advisory is also in effect for Sunday for Yuma, Kit
  Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado as air temperatures
  and heat indices around 105 degrees are forecast.

- Showers and storm potential returns Monday and through most of
  next week. Strong to severe storms are possible Monday with
  damaging winds currently the main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Current observations continue to show the upper ridge in place over
the Rockies and much of the Plains. At the surface, broad low
pressure is set up over the area. With this, winds have become light
and the showers and storms that were near the Front Range have been
unable to advance far enough east to impact the area. As such, the
nighttime hours are expected to see partly cloudy skies with light
winds, allowing temperatures to cool to near dewpoint. However, the
weak southeasterly flow and lack of mixing have allowed dewpoints to
rebound quickly into the upper 50s and 60s. This should then keep
low temperatures in the 60s, with 70s forecast for those east of
Highway 83 where more moisture is present. Fog looks to be unlikely
as long as temperatures don`t cool too much.

Sunday continues to be forecast to be one of the hottest day of the
year so far. The upper ridge is expected to amplify slightly while
the axis moves more over the area. With this and a developing low
pressure in the Northern Plains shifting the low level flow to more
out of the south/southwest, temperatures are forecast to climb into
the mid to upper 100s by the afternoon hours. With winds a bit
lighter compared to Saturday, dewpoints will likely be a bit higher
as well and help heat index values reach the mid to upper 100s.
Lower 110s may also be possible east of highway 83 where dewpoints
should be highest. With this, the Heat Advisory remains in effect.

There is the possibility of some afternoon/evening showers/storms
with the surface low creating some convergence zones in the area,
along with an 850-700mb low creating some low-mid level convergence.
The issue with any storms is that the low levels will likely be
extremely dry given the very warm temperatures. Also, the
convergence zones look to setup over the western half of the area,
where the overall moisture content is also forecast to be lower. As
such, most showers/storms that form would be very quick and may only
produce virga. Even if a storm does hold on, it is unlikely to be
severe with the overall weak instability and lack of shear. Still,
they might produce a few gusts nearing 50mph and some dry lightning
which could spark a fire.

Sunday night, any storm activity should end early in the night once
the sun goes down. Dewpoints are also forecast to continue to lower
with the low level flow forecast to be from the southwest. Even with
the slightly lower dewpoints, the southwesterly winds are forecast
to keep temperatures up with a downsloping component. This would
lead to another night with minimal recovery from the heat as
temperatures generally stay in the 70s and 80s.

Monday continues the heat with little change in the upper ridge
during the day. The main change is that the surface low is forecast
to take more of a shape and shift south into the southern portion of
the area by the late afternoon. For the daytime hours, this means
plenty of sunshine and high temperatures into the mid to upper 100s
again. The exception is in locales near the Tri-State border and
Eastern Colorado as a whole as the low pushing through is forecast
to limit the warm air advection and even bring in "cooler" air.
Likely, temperatures would near 100 again for this area, but this
would keep heat index values below the mid 100s. For now, am keeping
Eastern Colorado out of the Heat Advisory for Monday. Most of NW
Kansas and SW Nebraska however keep the Heat Advisory with heat
index values in the mid to upper 100s. Lower 110s are possible again
east of Highway 83 if the easterly low level flow can bring in more
moisture.

With the surface low deepening during the day, it is forecast to
provide a convergence zone in the area. This could spark some early
showers and storms that may keep areas a bit cooler than currently
forecast, mainly in the western parts of the area. Should storms
fire up early in the afternoon, the weak shear and high melting
levels suggest that they should mainly be sub-severe with a dry
lightning threat. That being said, a few storms may be able to load
enough precipitation to produce severe downburst wind gusts. This is
also true for any storms that form along the Palmer Divide with the
easterly upslope flow. The other potential hazard to watch for is a
low end flooding threat. With very slow storm motions around 10 kts
and high melting levels leading to melting hail and better
precipitation efficiency, a long lived storm or cluster may be
able to produce a few inches of rain. Any showers/storms that do
form may also continue through the night with the surface low
forecast to stall just southeast of the area, keeping moisture
advection and forcing in the area. While the precipitation would
help cool the area a bit, the lack of drier air would still
keep temperatures near dewpoints in the 60s and 70s.&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Synoptically, the ridge that has been in place over the Four Corners
region is still likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week.
Throughout the week, Guidance does show some indication of
shortwaves moving through the region.

Overall, high temperatures look to "cool" down to the mid to high
90s for the majority of the week. Winds for the week look to remain
calm to breezy, with relative humidity values in the 30-60% range.

Moving to the precipation chances this week: starting with Tuesday,
Guidance mainly the NAM and the RRFS shows a boundary over the
southern part of the CO/KS border. With this boundary, moisture
advection from the south and will move northward of over the CWA.
Winds will mainly be from the east, causing upslope flow and will
help influence shower/storm production. PoPs are in the 30-50% range,
and the probability of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation is in the 15-
30% for areas west of KS Hwy 27. However, one thing to note is that
some models do not show this boundary or show a weaker version on
the boundary. Given this is roughly four days out, it will be
interesting to see how Guidance will trend with the boundary and
its location for precipitation chances.

Once again, Wednesday has similar precipitation chances with PoPs
in the 20-50% range. Currently, Guidance looks to have another
boundary in place, but there is a fair amount of disagreement on
where the boundary will be located. Given we have moisture advection
from the south, this will help the precipitation chances.

Looking at the rest of the week, each afternoon/evening does
have around a 10-20% range for PoPs. These chances will be
dependent on how Tuesday and Wednesday pan out. While a fair
amount can change, there is a signal that precipitation chances
do return to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 934 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KGLD and KMCK through the
TAF period. For KGLD, winds will be around 10 knots out of the
southwest until around 12Z when they become lighter and
generally out of the southeast. Winds will remain light and
gradually shift to out of the southwest through the end of the
TAF period.

For KMCK, winds will be mainly out of the southeast
maxing out around 10 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Rhoades