785
FXUS63 KGLD 272039
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
239 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms that develop along the Colorado Front Range this
  afternoon will track east toward the Kansas border late this
  aft-eve. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with the
  strongest storms, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS border
  counties between 6-10 PM MDT.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop over
  portions of northwest KS this evening and overnight. Locally
  heavy rainfall can be expected with any storms. Minor/
  nuisance flooding possible.

- Below normal temperatures and rain chances continue through
  the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Through Tonight: Westerly flow aloft is present over the region
this afternoon.. on the eastern periphery of a deamplifying
ridge progressing slowly east across the High Plains.. and
southwestern fringe of a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow
aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. In the lower levels (surface to
850 mb).. the Tri-State area was situated on the eastern
periphery of a broad lee cyclone (extending eastward from
central-southern CO into west-southwest KS), where modest
southerly flow was present.. mainly over eastern portions of the
Goodland county warning area (per surface observations and KGLD
velocity data). As of 19Z, pervasive stratus has lifted/
scattered over southwestern portions of the area (mainly south
and west of Goodland).. where temperatures were rising through
the 70`s. Meanwhile, east and north of Goodland.. low overcast
(and a shallow cool/stable airmass) persists. Challenging
convective forecast. High-res guidance continues to suggest that
diurnal convection emanating from the Colorado Front Range will
progress downstream into eastern CO during the late afternoon
(~00-02 UTC) and far western KS during the early evening (02-04
UTC), though.. a fair amount of model-to-model and run-to-run
variability persists with regard to convective coverage. While
moderate instability (~1500 J/kg MLCAPE) will be present over
portions of eastern CO by 00 UTC.. weak forcing, modest (~6.5
C/km) mid-level lapse rates, marginal effective deep layer shear
(~20-30 KT) and weak DCAPE suggest a rather limited severe
weather potential. Guidance indicates that convection will also
develop over portions of northwest KS this evening.. when and
where strengthening low-level southerly flow/warm advection (on
the E and N periphery of the southeastward-advancing lee
cyclone) will aid in the development of elevated convection, the
focus of which may lie along/near the I-70 corridor -- on the
cool side of a shallow, stable airmass (near the southern
periphery of persistent low overcast) -- where somewhat more
favorable deep layer shear (and focused forcing) could support
transient supercellular organization and some potential for
hail, though.. the presence of abundant updrafts /interference/
may be a mitigating factor. For reference, right-mover motion
this evening should be from ~350 deg @ ~15 KT.

Thu-Thu night: With little overall change in the synoptic
pattern, expect sensible weather conditions similar to today,
though.. environmental conditions are apt to be influenced by
evening-overnight convection.. creating a fair amount of
uncertainty with regard to forecast specifics.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Fri-Sun: Long range guidance suggests that the ridge will
further deamplify and migrate eastward over the central CONUS
through the upcoming weekend.. as an upper level trough /
complex upper level low in the eastern Pacific gradually
progresses eastward ashore the Pacific Coast.
Deamplification/weakening of the ridge and the presence of a
subtropical jet over Baja CA, the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners
on Fri.. and subsequent development of a more progressive,
unidirectional flow pattern Sat-Sun.. may preclude substantial
changes in sensible weather conditions compared to previous
days, depending on upstream convective development along the
Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and nature/extent/evolution
of downstream propagation into eastern Colorado and western
Kansas.

Mon-Wed: Long range guidance suggests a return to WNW-NW flow
aloft, on the eastern periphery of a modestly amplifying upper
level ridge over the Rockies and southwest fringe of a complex
upper trough / broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern
CONUS.. similar to this week`s pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

GLD: S winds at 10-15 knots are anticipated to back to the SE
(~21Z) and E (~00Z) this afternoon.. as a weak lee cyclone in
central CO tracks southeastward into southeast CO. IFR ceilings
will gradually lift/improve to MVFR by early afternoon. Further
improvement to VFR is expected during the mid-late afternoon,
though.. intermittent or occasional MVFR ceilings are a
possibility. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to MVFR-IFR
late this evening (after sunset).. with further deterioration to
IFR or LIFR likely overnight. Substantial improvement may not
occur until the end of the 18Z TAF period (late Thursday
morning). Showers and thunderstorms could potentially impact the
Goodland terminal this evening.. mainly ~03-07Z.. when
convection may (1) approach from the west and/or (2) develop
directly over northwest KS. Gusty/erratic surface winds can be
expected in vicinity of any storms.

MCK: Light (5-10 knot) southerly to easterly winds will prevail
through the majority of the TAF period.. perhaps becoming
variable, at times. MVFR ceilings should gradually lift/improve
to MVFR by early afternoon. Further improvement to VFR is
expected during the mid-late afternoon, though.. intermittent
or occasional MVFR ceilings are a possibility. Ceilings are
expected to deteriorate to MVFR-IFR late this evening (after
sunset).. with further deterioration to IFR or LIFR likely
overnight. Substantial improvement may not occur until the end
of the 18Z TAF period (late Thursday morning). While a few
showers cannot be ruled out late this evening and overnight..
guidance suggests that convection should largely, perhaps
entirely, be confined south of the McCook terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent