327
FXUS63 KGLD 181945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1245 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog may impact morning travel Wednesday and Thursday
  mornings.

- Widespread rainfall, locally heavy, expected with upcoming
  storm system on Thursday and Friday.

- Another storm system moving onto the Plains early next week.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

15Z Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated strong closed low
circulation moving into southern California and towards the four
corners area. Shortwave ridging was observed near the outlook
area with ridge axis noted just to the west. At the surface,
weak high pressure was building into the area behind departing
low system in northern Missouri.

In the near term, primary concerns will focus on aviation impacts
due to advancing low clouds and fog potential tonight, followed by
widespread precip chances later this week and into the next.

Tonight...Shortwave ridge aloft will keep any forcing for ascent
limited to low levels as flow aloft becomes more southerly allowing
for a period of strong warm air advection. Am a little concerned
that this pattern may promote low stratus development overnight but
there will be little if any threat for precipitation. Soundings
indicate mixing ratios increase with height in many locations
tonight, providing a favorable profile should radiational
cooling be strong. With expected light winds am leaning towards
fog development overnight, but with expected high cloud coverage
and potential for low level stratus to develop confidence not
exceedingly high.

Tomorrow...Similar upper air pattern expected through the day
Wednesday as upper level ridge remains primary synoptic scale
forcing. While there is a small window for breezy southerly winds in
the morning hours, especially east of a Trenton to Leoti line,
gradient should relax through the day allowing for overall light
winds. Although temperatures aloft will be higher as opposed to
today, increasing cloud cover will likely limit heating and expect
temperatures very similar to today at most locations.

Wednesday Night-Friday Night...Strong low pressure system near
southern California this morning will be forced over the high plains
as another storm system takes its place near the four corners. While
specifics differ between modeling systems, consensus exists for a
period of strong forcing for ascent along with ample moisture (Mean
PW`s around 3/4" and mixing ratios at H850 mb between 6-8 g/kg).
While entire outlook area will likely see some precipitation,
highest amounts will likely be south of Interstate 70 and east of
the Colorado and Kansas state line. While beneficial rain will be
the most likely outcome for much of the area, there is small concern
that rain may change to snow on the backside of system Friday
morning. Currently this seems to be a rather unlikely (20%) scenario
but hard to ignore some of the probabilistic data bringing in
colder air. Even if a change over were to occur (mainly in
eastern Colorado) it would occur on tail end of precipitation
and with warm ground would not expect meaningful snow
accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

In several ways the weather pattern "resets" itself with
shortwave ridging building over the Central High Plains and
strong closed low system in Southern California and Southern
Arizona. Main concern for the start of Thanksgiving week will be
how this system in the southwest evolves, as models have shown
a high degree of variability with respect to its development
over the past few days although latest data has trended towards
a similar solution. Aforementioned low will lift into the
plains in the Monday to Tuesday time period bringing another
round of precipitation to the plains. Current data takes most
likely path to the south of the area, only grazing south-
southeastern most counties. While there is potential for a more
favorable track, that appears not to be the most likely
scenario. Cold air will be hard to come by for this system as
well and would expect rain to be primary precipitation type.

While the Thanksgiving holiday is outside the general forecast
timeframe for current forecast, it is worth mentioning potential for
a pattern shift in that timeframe. Looks like a push of much colder
air into the region around Thanksgiving, with 30-40% chance of highs
not getting above freezing. Some light snow also not out of the
question in that time window.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1021 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Stratus deck moving in behind weak front will bring ceilings
down to around 2000 ft for the next few hours at MCK while
expect front to stall between KGLD and KSYF keeping clouds just
north of the GLD terminal. Expect a period of VFR conditions in
the early evening, but overall airmass hydrolapse rates
favorable for fog development by sunrise. While widespread fog
is possible, large amount of high clouds may limit cooling and
inhibit fog formation, lowering overall confidence.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JRM