413
FXUS63 KGLD 160752
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible again Sunday, albeit with a lower
  chance of occurring. The main risk area would be Eastern
  Colorado while the main threat would be wind gusts up to 60
  mph and large hail. Flash flooding could be a concern
  depending on how much rain falls on Saturday.

- Low chances for severe storms continue into Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast to continue through
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current observations have most of the main batch of showers and
storms exiting the area to the east. However, outflow from the storm
cluster in West-Central Nebraska is moving south through the area
and generating additional storms. With instability and shear on the
weaker side, these should be sub-severe and just give some
additional rain in patches. Otherwise, dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s are going to help keep temperatures int eh upper 60s and 70s for
most of the night. Some fog may also be able to develop close to
sunrise. The favored area is generally western parts of the area
where skies may clear a bit earlier than the rest of the area.

For the daytime hours, higher pressure and cooler temperatures are
forecast to be in place over the area. Daytime highs are forecast to
be around 80 for most of the area. With the high pressure expected
to be broad, winds are forecast to be below 10 mph for most of the
day, mainly from the east/southeast.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, we will see another
chance for showers and storms. That being said, chances and overall
severity will be lower than prior days with the surface high
pressure and slight ridging upstream in the upper flow both trying
to inhibit storm progression. This could lead to no storms making it
to the area. Otherwise, storms would move in from the west and push
east/southeast. The coverage would likely be more isolated or
scattered instead of a larger batch. Large hail and wind gusts
around 60 mph would be the main concerns, though the less favorable
conditions may keep the hail west of the area. In the off chance a
stronger storm or cluster does move into the area, there may be a
chance for some flooding if it moves over an area that has seen rain
the past few days.

Monday, the upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit to the west
while a trough digs into the Northern Plains. With this, the area
is forecast to heat up a little bit under the ridge`s influence with
highs forecast to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Winds are
forecast to shift to out of the south at 10-15 mph.

Storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours again
with slight northwesterly flow aloft and low pressure trying to
build into the area. Chances are still forecast to be on the low
side with the main upper forcing likely north of the area and some
of the upper ridge influencing the area. The issue is that these
storms may be severe with plenty of moisture in the area and a
chance for higher shear if the surface pressure field doesn`t become
too broad. Large hail maybe reaching two inches and wind gusts
around 60 mph would be the main threats. Should the storms form,
they would likely be isolated to scattered in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Starting the extended period Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to
continue to slightly extend northward across the area. The further
north the high pressure can go then the warmer temperatures will be.
Current forecast has temperatures returning to the mid to upper
90s, but if the high pressure can remain a little further south
then highs in the upper 80s to low 90s would be common. The
position of high will also dictate precipation chances as well.
With the current forecast being on the warmer end this does
decrease our precipitation chances as guidance indicates that a
shortwave will develop on the northern periphery of the high.
If storms were to develop, they would turn severe with damaging
winds the main threat as they form a cluster and move to the
southeast. Currently should storms develop the northern and
eastern portions of the area would be favored.

Wednesday, has a similar pattern but is more dictate by the
development of a ridge across the western CONUS. Again guidance
indicates another shortwave within the flow which could move into
the area and possibly entire most if not the entire forecast area.
Current guidance indicates that shear is a little better around
35- 40 knots which could support a damaging wind and perhaps
even large hail threat if storms don`t grow upscale too quickly.
Those two days will need to be continued to be monitored.

Thursday, through the end of the forecast period indicates that
another strong ridge will develop across the western CONUS as warm
temperatures in the low to mid 90s return. The amplitude of the
ridge will dictate how warm it gets and if precipitation
chances occur as we may continue to reside on the eastern side
of said ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers are forecast to move through both terminals starting at the
beginning of the TAF Period, and lasting a few hours. As showers
move over both terminals, brief movements of MVFR conditions may
occur, due to light to moderate rainfall dropping ceilings to around
2000-2500 ft. For KGLD Ceilings are forecast to drop to IFR
conditions for a brief period in the morning hours with ceilings
around 600 ft. Skies should clear later in the day with the winds
remaining below 10 kts and varying in direction.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Holdren