291
FXUS63 KGLD 240623
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1223 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chance for storms this evening. 1-1.5 inch hail and
  55-70 MPH winds are the primary threats.

- Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards
  possible.

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A 500 mb high over New Mexico paired with a low over the Great Lakes
regions keeps the Tri-State area under fairly persistent
northwesterly flow. This will let temperatures warm up into the 90s,
potentially briefly 100 degrees today, and low 90s tomorrow. More
importantly, this give us daily chance at convection.

Early this morning easterly winds east of U.S. 83 may provide enough
up-slope cooling to produce some patchy fog across the CWA. There`s
only a ~10% chance visibility drop below a mile in the fog, but
isolated patches of dense fog are not impossible. Throughout the
day, we will have a weak surface low moving over the CWA, leading to
fairly weak and variable winds. We could still see some gusts up to
20-25 kts, but these should be rare.

Around 23-01Z this afternoon, our next round of convection looks to
be entering the CWA from the west, driven by a 500 mb shortwave
trough. The setup today is similar to yesterday`s, and storms may
not occur in our area. However, there is better forcing today than
Sunday had, leading to a 50% chance of storms occurring in the CWA.
Scattered to clusters of supercells seem to be the likely mode. The
more isolated a cell is, the better chance is will have to be
severe, but there`s a 60% chance storms cluster together early and
would likely only muster 50-70 MPH winds and 0.75-1.5 inch hail. If
an isolated cell matures ahead of other convection, we could see 2.5
inch hail, a microburst of 80 MPH, and a brief tornado. Potential
for this occurring is less than 5%. There is also a 25% chance of
flash flooding from either training storms or right/left moving
storms, as these motions are around 15-20 kts. The bulk of the
convection looks to remain west of KS 27. All in all, storms are
likely, but there is only a small, conditional threat of high-end
severe weather. Most likely area to see the severe storms would be
near and north of the Tri-State border.

Convection looks to end around 6-9Z, and then temperatures will drop
into the mid 60s, again. There is a growing potential that
convection will persist until closer to 12-15Z Tuesday morning. If
this occurs, temperatures may remain capped in the upper 80s and the
afternoon severe threat may not occur. Current probability of this
happening is around 40%. Confidence has increased in this solution
as more guidance is showing this, leaving the lower levels a mess
for Tuesday evening, lowering the potential for highly organized
convection.

However, the potential for widespread convection Tuesday evening is
still a threat, so let`s discuss it. Most likely start time for the
"main show" will be around 22-0Z. A cold front will be draped across
the CWA, running from near McCook, NE to around Kit Carson, CO when
convection looks to initiate. In the first couple hours of
convection, isolated storms are favored before becoming a cluster,
or even QLCS moving to the southeast. Isolated storms will have a
better chance at producing hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range, but will
be less likely to produce winds above 65 MPH. As the system matures,
the hail threat lowers, but the wind threat increases. As clusters
or a line forms, winds up to 80 MPH are possible, while hail would
top out around 1.75 inches. There will be a low, but persistent
tornado threat through the event. Convection would likely clear our
area around 9Z.

There are still a lot of unknowns about Tuesday`s severe weather,
including placement of the front when it fires and how much early
morning convection disturbs the environment. Lows Tuesday night look
to cool a little more, behind the cold front, down closer to 60s for
most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain
stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly
flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin
to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a
trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected
to move through the area during the week and into the weekend,
increasing precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s.
Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from
the mid 80s to low 90s. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest, with
highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to
reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then
higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are
expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period.

Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday
and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50%
range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and
evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear
sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some
variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less
organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chances
then begins to taper off to 5-25% for Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
both KGLD and KMCK. Winds will start the period primarily out of the
south at both airports, but will begin to rotate clockwise
throughout the period for KGLD. Winds for KMCK will become more
easterly during the mid-afternoon hours today. There is a small
probability for fog to develop at KMCK (10%) from about 09-12z, and
would be most likely if cloud cover can clear out and allow for
radiational cooling. Both KGLD and KMCK have a risk for
thunderstorms toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Davis