060
FXUS63 KGLD 170009
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
609 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms remain forecast This Evening and Tuesday.
  Tuesday continues to look like a more widespread event.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the
  upcoming weekend, including temperature near 105, which could
  break records.

- Critical fire weather potential increases later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A weak low situated over eastern Colorado this afternoon could
serve as a focusing mechanism for some convective activity in
the early evening hours. The convection will most likely form
along a weak dry line forming across far eastern Colorado and
a weak warm frontal boundary extending  The highest probability
for convective development will be in the evening hours
generally between 8 pm and midnight.  However, this development
is highly conditioned on temperatures warming enough to overcome
a weak mid-level capping inversion. The latest CAMS output does
show some development, but there is disagreement between the
various models on the extent of convective activity.  As a
result, confidence in overall thunderstorm coverage is lower
than average. At this time, some isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm activity is the most likely outcome for the evening
hours.  Model sounding information is supportive of strong to
severe wind gusts being the primary concern from any severe
thunderstorms that fire up.  After midnight, the convective
threat will wane rapidly as temperatures cool in relation to
convective cold pooling and the loss of diurnal heating.

Heading into tomorrow, the threat for severe storms is
substantially higher as a potent shortwave trough axis approaches
the forecast area from the west.  The combination of ample
instability and favorable 0-3km bulk shear values of 40 to 50
knots will support some severe thunderstorm activity.  The
convection will most likely develop initially in the late
afternoon hours across the northwest portion of the forecast
area in eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska where the
greatest upper level difluence and forcing will be tomorrow
afternoon.  As this convective activity strengthens, there
are indications that an MCV will begin to form over northeast
Colorado.  A potent QLCS should form along a strengthening
cold pool boundary and then follow the theta-e axis to the
southeast across the entire forecast area through the late
afternoon and early evening hours.  Model sounding analysis
indicates that the highest threat from these severe
thunderstorms will once again be strong to severe thunderstorm
wind gusts.  Once again, the cold pooling and loss of daytime
heating after midnight will lead to clearing and calmer
conditions for the late evening and overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will begin to build into
the area on Wednesday and will continue to strengthen and
dominate the forecast area through the weekend.  The end result
will be a much drier and hotter pattern.  The heat should peak
over the weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be
greatest across the region.  Model temperature spread is fairly
low, and there is a high degree of confidence that temperatures
will warm into the low to mid 100s this weekend.

Monday looks to be a transitional day as the ridge axis begins
to pull to the east.  Lowering heights and some weak positive
vorticity advection in advance of an approaching trough over
the Pacific Northwest could weaken the capping inversion just
enough to spark off some isolated convection.  However, there
is still very low confidence in the forecast for Monday, and
the rain threat could shift toward later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Initial concerns for the 00Z TAF period will center around
thunderstorm development and associated impacts. Strong
thunderstorms have begun to develop along stationary front with
the most intense storms likely along and east of front/dryline
intersection near the NE/CO/KS border, with KMCK seeing the best
potential to be impacted before 06Z. Strong winds exceeding 40
kts, blowing dust, hail and periods of heavy rain will likely
bring MVFR to IFR conditions with the strongest storms. Outflow
may initiate a storm near KGLD before 03Z, but that is less
likely. After thunderstorms diminish after midnight, expect
stratus to overspread the area through the morning hours,
gradually breaking up with diurnal heating. Lower MVFR
conditions likely to be widespread around sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A major pattern shift is expected Tuesday night. But between
now and then, we are still expecting warm and relatively moist
conditions, minimizing our traditional critical fire weather
criteria. Also, this evening and again on Tuesday, we are
expecting daily chances at storms, potentially severe, to
impact majority of the area. These storms would create gusty,
erratic winds, leading to chaotic fire behavior. After Tuesday
night, a high pressure system will begin dominating the area.
This will lead to a dry, warming trend for the following days.
Southerly winds are already forecast to be gusting to around
25-30 MPH for large portions of the area as the RH values drop
into the teens. Thursday could see brief critical fire weather
conditions in eastern Colorado, but Friday and Saturday have
a decent chance at seeing fairly widespread critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DDC
FIRE WEATHER...