992
FXUS63 KGLD 282236 AAA
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
436 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild conditions are forecast, but fog is possible each morning
  through at least Saturday.

- An active weather pattern may develop late this week,
  bringing potential for more widespread precipitation
  throughout the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Fog continues to be the main concern through the short term
period. A cold front currently traversing the forecast area is
shifting winds to the northwest which is starting to scour out
the fog and low clouds for this afternoon. Tonight, the winds
will veer to easterly in the post frontal environment, with fog
and low clouds developing after 06z. The fog will likely be
widespread by 12z with areas of dense fog. It will persist well
into Thursday morning and perhaps into mid afternoon maintained
by the easterly winds and upslope flow. The fog will redevelop
early Thursday evening and by widespread once again through the
night and Friday morning, with a slow erosion process through
Friday afternoon.

Precipitation chances through Friday morning will be limited to
very light amounts with the fog and occasional drizzle. During
the day on Friday, a swath of light rain will move into areas
south of Interstate 70 by 21z and the remainder of the area by
00z, associated with a shortwave trough in the southwest flow
aloft. The light rain will continue into Friday evening, mainly
in Kansas and Nebraska, ending overnight as the shortwave lifts
out. Another round of fog may develop once the precipitation
ends, with light winds and saturated conditions. NBM 50th
percentile total precipitation amounts through Friday night show
between 0.10-0.25" east of Highway 83 and only a few hundredths
in the west, while 10th and 25th percentile precipitation
amounts are all below a tenth of an inch in the entire area,
which may be a more realistic expectation.

Temperatures through the period will be near normal for highs
but around 10 degrees above normal for lows due to fog and
clouds reducing the diurnal temperature range. Highs will be
mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s, with normal highs this
time of year in the lower 60s and normal lows in the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rain chances continue into Saturday morning as southwesterly flow
aloft continues to eject embedded shortwaves across the area.
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30% for the northeast
county warning area (CWA) through Saturday evening. High
temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the 40s, so rain
is the expected precipitation type for any showers that are able to
form. We could see some fog as dewpoints are forecast in the 50s.
Southeasterly surface winds could advect additional moisture into
the area, increasing chances for fog.

For Sunday, high temperatures are forecast in the 50s to 60s. Storm
chances start Sunday evening with PoPs of 50-75% increasing west to
east. Precipitation type will likely be rain based on forecast
temperatures and lack of instability in the environment.

Upper-level features are likely to send us into a more active
weather pattern Sunday evening through at least Tuesday. A deep
trough is forecast to extend from the Pacific Northwest (PNW)
southeast with a second trough not too far behind it in the western
Pacific. As these features propogate east, it will allow the
subtropical jet to drift north placing a strong jet streak across
the region Sunday. Models also show a surface low set up in eastern
Colorado and propogate east sometime Sunday evening or Monday.
Ensembles show the surface low setting up somewhere in the Central
Plains or the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. The interaction, track and
evolution of these surface and upper-level feathers will play a
major role in our weather pattern heading into the work week.
Currently, models diverge on how these interactions will play out.

The upper-level pattern could support a high wind event Monday
and Tuesday, but the big question will be where the surface low
tracks and the amount of cloud cover across the CWA. Clear skies
will allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface while
clouds will keep the winds above the surface. If we end up with
clear skies and a low further south or east of the CWA, we could
see wind gusts up to 60 mph Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Dust
would be unlikely for areas that received precipitation over the
weekend and current forecast lapse rates are unsupportive of
dust being lofted. A low tracking over the CWA would likely
increase precipitation chances and cloud cover, overall lowering
risk for strong winds. Low confidence in which scenario will
play out. It will heavily depend on the track and evolution of
the aforementioned upper-level troughs over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 432 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Both KGLD and KMCK will start out as VFR this evening. Overnight,
low clouds and fog are expected to redevelop across the area with
IFR conditions likely at both locations by 12z and persisting
well into Thursday morning and perhaps into the afternoon.
Pessimistic that either terminal will see a return to VFR on
Thursday with the low clouds slow to dissipate due to low level
upslope winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...024