315
FXUS63 KGLD 012333
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
433 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog and drizzle throughout the day today with southeasterly
  winds gusting up around 40-50 MPH.

- Low-end chances for severe storms tonight and again tomorrow
  midday.

- Monday & Tuesday could bring some strong winds with gusts
  around 30-60 mph.

- Freezing temperatures return Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

At 500 mb, there is a broad, but fairly strong, low moving onto the
U.S. west coast as a weak ridge exits to the east from the Great
Plains. Down at 850 mb, a lee low is forming in northern
Colorado/southern Wyoming. Tonight, it will eject to the northeast,
but before then, it will lead to strong south-southeasterly winds.
Sustained winds will be around 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-40 kts
this afternoon, the strongest of which look to be west of KS 27.
Timing for the strongest winds is forecast to be between 21-06Z.

Throughout the afternoon, we have some light 500 mb vorticity,
indicating some weak forcing. This will be enough forcing to produce
scattered drizzle and light rain across the CWA. As the 850 mb low
ejects to the northeast, it will drag with it a dryline from the
Rockies. This will provide additional forcing that will lead to a
line of storms moving into the area from the southwest. Prime time
for convection will be between 3-9Z. Locations south of I-70 in
Kansas have the best chance at seeing strong, to potentially severe
storms. Primary threats with storms will be gusts up to 60 kts and a
brief low-top supercell tornado. Confidence in these hazards
occurring in the CWA is less than 10%, but with this being an
overnight threat, extra caution should be taken.

Forecast severe weather parameters for tonight`s system include up
to 800 J/kg of ML CAPE with near -100 J/kg CINH and LCLs under 1 km.
Wind shear will be plentiful: 0-1 km 35-40 kts, 0-3 km 40-50 kts,
both with a right hooking hodograph and 350+ M2/S2 SRH. 0-3 km lapse
rates are garbage, under 6 C/km, which accounts for the CINH. There
may be enough forcing that the cap doesn`t inhibit the convection,
especially south of U.S. 40.

Following the dry line and convection, we should have a reprieve
from the winds for a few hours. Winds will become southwesterly and
we might even see some stars for the first time in a few days! Lows
will cool into the 50s, maybe upper 40s in eastern Colorado. Also,
dense fog is not expected tonight!

Monday morning, the 500 mb low driving this incoming system will be
coming over the Rockies and still be pretty broad. As the system
moves over the High Plains throughout the day, guidance is showing
this system remain as a large open trough. Down at 850 mb, by 12Z
Monday, the low from the night before will already be in South
Dakota. Around the same time, a weak 850 mb Colorado lee low will be
forming. This weak lee low will stretch the trough axis of the
Northern Plains low through the Central Plains, creating a stout
cold front. The southern tip low is much weaker than model previous
runs have had it, making the overall trough axis weaker and more
diffuse.

Trailing the cold front we expect strong northwesterly winds Monday.
As mentioned, the trough is weaker and more diffuse than in previous
model runs, lowering confidence in the High Wind threat. Most
likely, we can expect widespread 30-45 kts gusts and isolated gusts
up to 50-55 kts. Worst case, which has a 5-10% chance of occurring,
would see the southern low develop much stronger than forecast and
move across southern Kansas. If that were to happen, widespread 35-
55 kts gusts and isolated gusts up to 65 kts would be possible. In
either case, the strongest winds will be northwest of a line from
Tribune, KS to McCook, NE and occur Monday afternoon into Tuesday
morning, between 21-12Z. This is expected to be a prolonged strong
wind event overnight. The duration of the strong winds will put
additional strain on infrastructure and overnight darkness may
compound travel hazards. Potential for blowing dust is less than 2%
due to weak lapse rates and recent moisture.

As the cold front pushes through the CWA, there is a 60% chance it
will form showers and storms. With this potential, there is a 5-10%
chance that a broken line of supercells form as the cold front is
passing a line from Oberlin, KS to Cheyenne Wells, CO. This line has
the potential to mix down even stronger winds, up to 60-65 kts.
Prime time for strong to severe convection will be 16-0Z with
scattered showers trailing and lingering overnight.

With the winds and cold front impacting the CWA tomorrow, highs in
the northwestern CWA will likely be capped in the low to mid 50s.
However, the far eastern parts of the CWA may see 70s ahead of the
cold front! Overnight lows look to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s,
but may remain ~5 degrees warmer, depending on how efficient the CAA
is behind the front.

The gusts around 30-45 kts will persist until the low pressure
system exits to the east and a lee high starts building in. This
should occur between 12-18Z Tuesday morning. During this time, a 500
mb ridge will be pushing in from the Great Basin and over the
Rockies, allowing low level pressure to start rising in the lee of
the Rockies.

Bottom line for the upcoming threats: widespread gusts over 50 kts
have a 15-25% chance of occurring; widespread gusts up to 45 kts
with isolated gusts up to 55 kts has a 65% chance of occurring; 75%
confidence 35+ kts gusts persisting for 18 hours; 5-10% chance of
severe storms midday Monday; blowing dust is not expected to pose a
threat.

Tuesday, as mentioned above, the morning and potentially midday will
be windy. Precipitation is forecast to be exiting to the east before
noon. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s, but may be cooler
depending on how long the rain and clouds linger. Overnight Tuesday,
widespread freezing conditions are forecast as the clouds clear out
and winds become weak. No precipitation is expected and the wind
from the daytime hours should be able to dry out any damp surfaces,
making black ice very unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level pattern starts to
transition into zonal flow as the system from Tuesday finally
exits out of the area as a trough to the west begins to move
east and pass over the area midday Thursday. Then on Friday and
the remainder of the period, we can expect some slight ridging
before turning back to a broad and slow moving trough that could
dig into the County Warning Area (CWA). While confidence for the
evolution for the overall pattern on Thursday increases from low
to medium (30% to 50%), there is still some uncertainty with the
overall pattern on Thursday as a possible cut-off low from the
system on Tuesday could form just north of the area and combine
with the primary trough. For the rest of the period, ensemble
spread does show some variability of the ridge and could amplify
to the north on Friday. This could then potentially push the
broad trough on Saturday to the southwest and stall over the
Nevada and Utah border. There is low confidence (25%) that the
ridge would amplify to the north.

Temperatures throughout second half of next week look to be
fairly consistent. While afternoon highs are forecast to stay in
the 50s, the morning hours will likely be a little cold as
temperatures over the Tri-State border continue to be at or
nearly above freezing with slightly warmer temperatures towards
the east.

For precipitation, a brief shower could happen Thursday as a
weak cold front passes through with the trough. While there is
some vorticity over the area, the main limiting factor is the
lack of mid-layer moisture aloft.However, there is low
confidence (30%) that showers could occur. If showers do occur
it is favored to be south of I-70 within the very early morning
hours. On Saturday, there could be a chance for showers
throughout the day as the broad trough passes through. However
with the low confidence within the patterns evolution, chances
for showers could diminish as time progresses closer. On late
Saturday night, with the freezing temperatures and the
possibility for precipitation, there is a potential for
rain/snow mix within far western Kit Carson County. Although, no
snow accumulation is expected at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 427 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

KGLD will keep bouncing between minimums and IFR for the next
several hours before a line of storms approach from the
southwest, potentially impact the airport. KMCK will bounce
between IFR and MVFR until the same storms approach. Behind the
storms, flight categories will improve and gusts will gradually
weaken. However, LLWS will move in from the west at 200-400 feet
AGL around 50 kts ahead of the cold front. The front will pass
through in the late morning and bring with it northwesterly
winds gusting 25-40 kts. Tomorrow, a little behind the front,
storms will once again be possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...CA