166
FXUS63 KGLD 042153
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
353 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorm possible in northeast CO this afternoon.
  Low chance (less than 20%) for severe weather.

- A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging wind are possible Friday afternoon, mainly in
  northwest KS and southwest NE between ~2-8 pm MDT.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend
  and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Through Tonight: Visible satellite and regional radar trends
suggest that a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (most
pronounced at ~700 mb on SPC mesoanalysis) just east of Graham
County (near Stockton/Osborne at 20Z this afternoon) will
continue to slowly track NNE-NE toward southeast Nebraska this
aft-eve. In the lower levels, a baggy MSLP to 850 mb height
pattern on the eastern periphery of a modest lee trough in
Colorado will maintain weak (~10-15 knot) S to SE flow over the
region this aft-eve. W/regard to convection, observational
trends and high-res convection allowing guidance suggest that
[1] Weak low-level forcing, [2] subsidence on the western
periphery of the departing mid-level wave / MCV and [3]
increasing convective inhibition (MLCIN) associated with an
eastward advancing elevated mixed layer (characterized by
700-500 mb lapse rates ~8.0 to 8.5 C/km) will effectively cap an
otherwise moderately unstable airmass over northwest KS and
southwest NE.. where surface dewpoints are in the upper 50`s to
lower 60`s, 850 mb dewpoints are ~12-14C and mlcape values range
from 1000-2000 J/kg. With modest (~10-15 knot) westerly
steering flow, high-based updrafts north of I-76 (along the
Cheyenne Ridge) are likely to remain N and NW of the Goodland
CWA this aft-eve, though.. given that right-mover motion is from
the N at 10-15 knots.. an organized updraft (transient or
otherwise), if present, could conceivably progress southward
into Yuma County. Recent runs of the HRRR/NAM NEST suggest that
a few high-based updrafts may develop further south along the
Palmer Divide late this aft-eve (~00-02Z, 6-8p MDT).. where weak
forcing, a very dry mid-level airmass and increasing convective
inhibition (esp. after sunset) are likely to limit/hamper
downstream (eastward) propagation.

Fri-Fri night: A modest ~250-300 mb trough / SW-to-NE oriented
shear axis and accompanying low-level reflection (a SW-to-NE
oriented MSLP to 850 mb trough) will progress east across the
Tri-State Area during the day on Friday, when/where weak low-
level convergence may serve as a focus for scattered convective
development during the early-mid afternoon. Guidance suggests
that the surface to 850 mb trough will be situated along/near a
line (roughly) from Leoti-Oakley-Oberlin. Locations along and
east of the low-level convergence zone are relatively more
likely to see convective development. Forecast soundings
indicate inverted-v thermodynamic profiles with seasonably
strong DCAPE, moderate high-based instability with weak (~10-15
knot) flow in the lowest 15,000 to 20,000 ft AGL and weak deep-
layer shear. With this in mind, locally damaging wind appears to
be the primary hazard with any convection. Even if convection
is largely unorganized in nature, severe hail is certainly
possible.. especially east of Highway 83 where strong
instability (2500-3000 J/kg mlcape) may be present.

Sat-Sat night: While ample low-level moisture will likely
foster moderate diurnal destabilization (~1500 J/kg mlcape) over
eastern portions of the area on Sat, synoptic subsidence
associated with an amplifying upper level ridge over the
Central-Northern Plains will tend to suppress convective
development. Expect highs similar-to, albeit a few degrees
warmer than, Friday.. ~92-97F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) will remain in a broad
southwest upper-level flow aloft downstream of a low pressure system
in the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s.
Skies will be mostly clear until the evening when we see a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs)
generally range around 30% for the northern CWA. Severe storms are
possible as there are around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE present over the
CWA, but shear will be the limiting factor for storms. Forecast
soundings indicate around 20 knots of shear. Should storms develop,
small hail and strong winds associated with collapsing thunderstorms
are the primary hazards.

Storm chances continue Sunday evening through Monday for the area
with PoPs from 20-40%, increasing from north to south. The
environment appears more supportive of severe storm development. Our
region is in a strong southwest upper-level flow with a weak jet
streak around 70 knots over the region. The environment is still
moderately unstable with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, but again,
shear is the limiting factor with model soundings showing 20-40
knots of shear. Hazards are similar to Sunday with small hail and
strong winds as the primary concerns, but some stronger storms could
produce large hail. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s, but
if the region sees widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday,
increased cloud cover could lower temperatures and decrease storm
chances for Monday.

The remainder of the extended forecast period is shaping up to be
hot, windy, and dry with above average temperatures, strong winds
and low relative humidity (RH) values forecast. Tuesday through
Thursday, high temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s with
wind gusts from 25-40 mph possible. RH values are expected to fall
in the low teens to 20s, decreasing from east to west. RH values may
trend lower than currently forecast due to persistent southwest
upper-level flow and south-southwest winds promoting downslope
warming and mixing. This could increase temperatures and winds as
well. These conditions will support critical fire weather conditions
Tuesday through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon hours when RH
values are the lowest. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values of
60 to 100+ are forecast, with the highest being across the western
CWA. Any fires that develop may spread rapidly and become difficult
to control.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions and light (~6-12 knot) ESE to S winds are
expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF period. The development
of a modest southwesterly low-level jet (~1000 to 2000 ft AGL)
may lead to a period of LLWS at either/both terminals late this
evening and overnight, mainly between 04-10Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Vincent