724
FXUS63 KGLD 241134
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
534 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong cold front Saturday brings in prolonged precipitation
  potential through Monday. Low chance of flooding from this
  system.

- Freezing temperatures look to return Tuesday morning. Wind
  chills may be in the mid 20s near the Tri-State border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The next few days will be dominated by a closed low over the Great
Basin and Four Corners region becoming a cutoff low, but still
impacting the western Great Plains. This low will be fighting a
ridge that`s currently extending over the Mississippi River Valley.
Widespread vorticity is also seen all around the incoming low, which
in interacting with south-southwesterly moisture advection, leading
to showers and isolated storms to form early this morning.

There is a stout cold front slowly moving southeast across Yuma
county as of 9Z. Despite the southerly flow slowing the front, it
will spend all day gradually pushing through the CWA. During the day
today, a 500 mb amplifying shortwave ridge over northern Colorado
will cutoff the low near the Four Corners. This will allow an 850 mb
high to descend out of the Northern Rockies and provide additional
northwesterly flow, reinforcing the cold front. The reinforcing
advection in addition to this already being a fairly strong cold
front, we expect winds to rapidly become northerly behind the front
and gusts around 30 kts in the morning and early afternoon. In the
late afternoon and evening hours, the front will begin weakening and
winds will gradually become northeasterly, under 15 kts.

These northeasterly winds will likely promote fog development Sunday
morning. There is 20-30% confidence that patches of dense fog (0.25
mile visibility) will occur across portions of the CWA Sunday
morning. Most of the area could see the fog, but it will be more
likely in areas east of KS 27.

A large low in central Canada and the Four Corners low, combined
with the large high over the eastern CONUS and the weak high over
the Northern Rockies will form a loosely defined 850 mb col, or
saddle point, over the CWA today. This will promote persistent
precipitation throughout the day. Due to the western side of the col
being broken up by the Rockies, this feature looks to decay the 850
mb cold front into a stationary boundary by the evening hours. This
will promote precipitation in areas nearby the stationary boundary,
which is favored to be west of KS 27 throughout the overnight hours.
Due to the broad upper-level forcing, there is still a 25-50% chance
areas east of KS 27 see rain overnight, too.

The stationary boundary persists through Sunday and into Sunday
night, but gradually diffuses as a new 850 mb lee low forms in
southern Colorado overnight. PoPs lower, but never go away during
this time. At 500 mb, another closed low moves into the northwestern
CONUS Sunday afternoon and will absorb the cutoff Four Corners low
into its flow Sunday evening and overnight. With the 500 mb low
moving again Monday morning, the 850 mb low ejects to the northeast,
reinvigorating the stationary boundary across the CWA, increasing
PoPs again. By Monday evening, the 500 mb low will be pulling out of
the central High Plains and the precipitation will begin to taper
off as zonal flow and the Gulf high pushes into the region. We
expect precipitation to completely end around 6-12Z Tuesday.

With the prolonged precipitation, we are expecting notable rainfall.
More information about precipitation amounts and potential hazards
can be found in the Hydrology section below.

Today will have a major contrast for high temperatures, thanks to
the cold front. The northwestern CWA will likely remain in the 50s
while areas in and around Graham county will warm into the low 70s.
Sunday and Monday, highs look to be in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings look to be in the upper
30s to near 50, with the cooler temperatures in the northwestern
CWA. It`s worth noting the NBM 50th percentile is driving
temperatures down to freezing around the Tri-State border Sunday
morning. Forecaster confidence in this occurring is less than 5% due
to the moisture that will be in place. Dewpoints are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 30s, preventing temperatures from getting that
cool. Strangely enough, the 10th percentile NBM dewpoints bottom out
around 34. If freezing temperatures do occur, expect a rain/snow mix
to occur for a few hours Sunday morning. Tuesday morning, as the
precipitation exits, temperatures near the Tri-State border look to
be cooling to around freezing. Minimum wind chills Tuesday morning
are forecast to be below 30 degrees along and northwest of a line
from McCook, NE to Cheyenne Wells, CO, and down to 23 near the Tri-
State border. It`s worth noting that we have passed the end of the
growing season, so we will not be issuing any Frost or Freeze
products for the rest of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tuesday, we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a digging
trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to be
pleasant with highs forecast in the 60s for the county warning area
(CWA).

Our region is forecast to be on the back end of a weak jet streak,
so we have the potential for breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon for
the western CWA. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, although
lingering cloud cover from earlier precipitation could prevent
stronger winds from mixing down to the surface. If skies completely
clear or clear earlier, we could see stronger winds. Models are a
bit conflicted on the wind potential due to placement of the jet
streak and potential cloud cover. NBM probabilities have around a
40% chance of wind gusts over 35 mph for our Colorado counties. LREF
has probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph less than 10%.

Conditions are forecast to remain pleasant on Wednesday with partly
cloudy skies and high temperatures forecast in the 60s across the
area. As the day progresses, we transition to more of a southwest
upper-level flow with a developing trough off the west coast.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast remains consistent with high
temperatures forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Our southwesterly
upper-level flow will bring chances for rain showers late Thursday
through Friday evening as embedded shortwaves are ejected across the
region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 20-30% with
low QPF amounts.

Looking past Friday, we have the potential to return to more of an
active weather pattern based on the forecast track and evolution of
the aforementioned trough off the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions for both KGLD and KMCK will worsen, becoming IFR
by 3Z this evening. In the meantime, scattered showers and some
embedded storms will persist throughout the day. We expect
these showers to lead to MVFR ceilings and potentially
visibilities, as well as some locally chaotic winds. There is a
cold front approaching from the northwest, hence the sudden wind
shifts in the TAFs. Expect 30-120 minutes of lag between the
wind shift and the 25-35 kts gusts with the front. We could see
some patchy fog Sunday morning across the region, too.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

As mentioned in the short-term discussion above, we are expecting on
and off precipitation to last into Monday evening. WPC has issued
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks showing portions of the CWA in a Slight
risk. These outlooks aren`t unfounded, but confidence for flash
flooding, which that outlook focuses on, is less than 15%. Reason
being, there does not seem to be a particular time when heavy rain
is expected to fall.

Deterministic guidance is suggesting 1-2 inches of rain falling over
most of the CWA, a band of up to 3 inches, and pockets of up to 4.5
inches of rainfall by Tuesday morning. This is likely too high of
QPF values, which is supported by ensemble means. Ensemble means
suggest most of the CWA will receive 0.25-1 inch, a band of up to 2
inches, and isolated pockets up to 3 inches. These values seem more
realistic and are reflected in the official forecast.

This band of higher precipitation amounts will occur where the cold
front stalls out Saturday evening, creating a stationary boundary.
This will be a north-northeast/south-southwest oriented band,
potentially stretching across the entire CWA, but is favored (60%)
to remain south of I-70. The band is likely (66%) to setup along and
west of a line from Atwood to Selkirk, KS, but may setup as far east
as U.S. 283. Wherever the band sets up, there will be a 35% chance
of areal and/or river flooding. Low water crossings will likely be
the first areas impacted from any flooding that does occur.

It`s worth noting, there is a 25% chance that the boundary does not
remain very stationary and "bounces" back and forth. If this occurs,
a well defined band of higher precipitation would likely not form
and the risk of flooding lowers to around 10%.

In total, there is:

 85% confidence the entire CWA will receive a tenth of an inch or
more of rain from this system.

 Less than 15% confidence in Flash Flooding.

 35% confidence areal and/or river flooding will occur.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA