979
FXUS63 KGLD 301850
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1250 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit cooler today with nearly persistent chances for showers
  and storms. Storms should generally be sub-severe.

- The unsettled pattern looks to continue over the next week,
  leading to another couple of low-end chances at showers and
  storms and near normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Today will remain moist as an 850 mb low sits over Nebraska and
continues to pull in more moisture from the south over the CWA. This
moisture, combined with multiple weak 500 mb shortwaves will allow
stratiform rain showers to persist across the area, becoming more
spotty in the early afternoon hours. We are seeing some of the low
ceilings starting to break across the area, which will allow us to
warm up a little bit before a stronger 500 mb shortwave provides
forcing for some additional precipitation starting around 22Z. The
system for this afternoon/evening is very disorganized and is
expected to consist of some weak storms that may produce some
locally heavy rainfall, winds up to 50 MPH, and some pea sized hail.
Worst case, a wet microburst occurs, producing 70 MPH winds or
training storms lead to Flash Flooding. Confidence in the worst case
is only about 5-10%. It also only looks like one or two storms will
be able to survive in this generally stable environment, but
additional showers are possible. This round of precipitation looks
to be exiting the CWA around 6Z, but lingering showers and storms
are possible through most of the night in locations along and east
of highway 83.

Following the precipitation, the surface flow looks to become more
northwesterly. Most short range guidance is showing a 1-3 mb
pressure rise over 6-12 hours, so winds will be fairly light, but
persistent. With the downsloping nature of the forecast winds, fog
tonight does not look likely, but cannot be ruled out, especially in
the easter 1/3 of the CWA. However, low stratus is expected and
light drizzle is possible. Current guidance has the main stratus
deck stretching from Grinnell, KS to Trenton, NE, but there`s a 35-
40% chance the stratus will expand west to the eastern Colorado
border. The stratus will keep us fairly warm with low temperatures
only cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s tonight. However, if
areas can clear out, temperatures will drop an additional 5-10
degrees; the western CWA has the best chance of seeing clear
conditions. By 18Z tomorrow, majority of the stratus should have
lifted as drier air from the northwest will increased the low-level
dew point depression.

Thanks in part to the stratus blanket in the morning, tomorrow`s
temperatures will be stunted, likely only making it into the lower
to mid 50s for the northeastern CWA, but the southwestern CWA will
warm to near 80. The low over Nebraska will be pushing farther east,
taking a lot of our moisture with it, making PoPs for Sunday
afternoon low. The eastern portions of the area (Red Willow and
south), will see a 10-20% chance of afternoon showers and weak
storms, but to the west, there`s less than a 10% chance. Overnight
temperatures tomorrow will cool into the 50s, generally a few
degrees cooler than tonight. Although a lot of the elevated moisture
will have moved out with the low, we may still see surface
saturation Sunday morning, producing fog or stratus.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The overall pattern in the long-term is expected to remain fairly
consistent. We will have a high pressure system over the Four
Corners region with low pressure to the northeast of the Great
Plains. This will leave the CWA under northwesterly flow, which
generally creates unsettled weather. This will support moderate
temperatures, like in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and a few chances at
precipitation. The main limiting factors to precipitation over the
next week will be mid-level moisture return and instability. We do
look to have a few cold fronts moving through the area, which would
provide enough lift to start off precipitation, if the other two
ingredients are in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Ceilings will continue to break apart this afternoon, but
IFR/LIFR conditions are not expected to fully clear out of KMCK
until around 20Z. Until then, some additional showers may impact
the airport and lower visibilities. KGLD may see another round
of showers move in from the west around 19Z. Confidence these
showers impact the airport directly is less than 40%, but at
worse we`d expect visibility to drop to around 3 miles for about
15-30 minutes.

This afternoon, around the 22-04Z time frame, a round of storms
may move in from the northwest and impact both KGLD and KMCK.
Gusty winds are expected to be the main impacts, but
visibilities may drop around or below 4 miles if a storm moves
over the airport. Following the storms, generally northwesterly
winds are expected, which will likely lead to some stratus
developing. Currently, KMCK looks to be worse off than KGLD, but
there is a 40% chance the stratus expands west and KGLD will see
another morning of LIFR ceilings.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA