056
FXUS63 KGLD 260256
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
856 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe storm remains possible this evening, mainly
  in Greeley and Wichita counties in Kansas. Quarter size hail
  and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main hazards.

- Severe weather potential continues Wednesday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Radar, satellite and observational trends during the past few
hours suggest that severe weather potential is decreasing across
the majority of the Goodland CWA. At 845 pm MDT (0245 UTC) this
evening, convection was largely confined to Kiowa, Bent,
Prowers and Baca counties in southeast CO, where an MCV
(mesoscale convective vorticity maximum) emanating from prior
deep convection appears to be the focus for ongoing development.
If current trends persist, precip chances and severe weather
potential in the Goodland CWA will largely be confined to
Greeley/Wichita counties, i.e. the E and ENE periphery of the
eastward advancing MCV.. where locally heavy rainfall and an
isolated severe storm are possible ~03-06Z (9p-12a MDT). While
augmented forcing associated with the MCV appears to be
strongest along/near Highway 50 (just south of the Goodland CWA)
and both the mean wind (300@15KT) and right-mover motion
(020@15KT) will tend to steer convection away from the Goodland
CWA, left-mover motion from the WSW (~250@15KT) could allow
anticyclonic updrafts (if present) to propagate northeastward
into portions of Greeley/Wichita counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The morning hours had a cluster of storms that formed and moved
generally along and east of Highway 83 along a lingering outflow
boundary. Current satellite and radar observations show the boundary
is slowly sagging south through the area while additional showers
and storms fire up around Logan and Gove counties from outflows from
this morning. This should keep some shower and storm activity in the
area through the rest of the morning. Severe weather is unlikely
with these storms.

This afternoon and evening will largely be dependent on if
showers/storms and cloud cover clears. We are forecast to remain in
northwest flow aloft while the upper trough slides through the
Plains. Along with the outflows in the area and a cold front nearing
the area to the north, we should have plenty of forcing available
for storms to develop. How severe and how widespread the storms are
is what is dependent on our clearing. While moisture availability is
high, this early cloud cover is stifling our instability recovery.
Should this persist, the storm coverage will likely be lower over NW
Kansas and SW Nebraska with mostly sub-severe storms. Eastern
Colorado would then be the main focus with storms moving in from the
west/northwest. This looks to be the slightly higher chance scenario
based on the mid morning observations. Should we clear and warm
enough, the severe threat would increase and storms would be more
likely to push through NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. The threat
magnitudes would also increase. Hail would go from around an inch,
to up to 2 inches (maybe larger in a well developed supercell). Wind
gusts would probably be similar in the 60-70 mph range, unless a
QLCS developed in which case 80 mph is the max. A QLCS orientated
roughly north/south or northeast/southwest would also give us a
chance for a brief tornado with 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be
roughly from the east around 25 kts. There only seems to be a 20%
chance that an organized line (QLCS) develops in the west and pushes
through. The peak time for severe weather is roughly from 4pm-11pm
and 5pm-12am. Storms could continue through the night with outflows
in the area and plenty of moisture forecast to be available.

Tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to push into the Eastern
United States while we remain under northwest flow. Higher pressure
and colder air are forecast to be in place, helping us stay a bit
cooler in the 80s. The pressure gradient is forecast to remain
fairly broad and keep winds around 5-10 mph. There may be a few
showers through the day, but the chances should be lower compared to
today with storms less likely to persist through the early morning.

Showers and storms will be possible again during the afternoon and
evening hours. The main storm batch will likely be coming from the
west once they develop along the Front Range. There is a 10% chance
that convective temperatures is reached and an isolated storm or two
form over the area. Storms that form will likely be in an
environment that supports large hail around an inch and wind gusts
of 50-70 mph. If we can get a supercell to form before storms finish
clustering, two inch or large hail may be able to form. The severe
threat will largely be confined to the evening hours, though an
outflow from the early storms may allow additional storms to form
and linger through the night hours.

Thursday is forecast to be similar to Wednesday with highs in the
80s. Winds may be slightly higher as a low develops in the Northern
Plains and brings speeds to around 10-15 mph. Storms may develop
again during the late afternoon and evening hours if the convective
temperatures can be reached, but the forecast for now only has a 30%
chance of this occurring. If a storm does form, large hail and wind
gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible again.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, high pressure continues to
remain parked across the SW CONUS. Guidance suggests that a
shortwave moves off of the northern Rockies. The better forcing is
currently forecast to remain to the north which puts precipation
potential a little in question but currently counties along and
north of Highway 36 currently appears to have the relative
higher potential.

Into the weekend a bit more pronounced trough is seen moving into
the area from the Intermountain West. This is forecast to shift the
high further south across the southern Plains. This may lead to a
bit more active pattern across the area. The question will be how
far south will the trough sag and if it will allow vorticity maxima
to move across the area which currently appears to be the only
forcing at this time as the better jet dynamics are currently
forecast to remain off to the north. A similar pattern then may
continue throughout next week as well but the high elongates
some and has some indications of shifting a little east. If this
does occur then an increase in monsoonal moisture may develop
as this would then become a classic pattern daily showers and
storms.

As for temperatures for the period. As long as the high pressure
remains nearby the area then temperatures would remain in the upper
80s to mid 90s. If cloud cover were to remain thick enough then
temperatures would have to be knocked down around 5-10 degrees but
it will be dependent on precipitation coverage through the day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period, along with light winds generally below 10 kts. Storms
remain possible, though the chances are around 20-40%. KGLD has
the best chance between 02-07Z, while KMCK has the best chance
between 04-09Z. If a storm made it to the terminals, it may be
able to produce 50 kt gusts and maybe some large hail.
Otherwise, more storms will be possible again close to 00Z
Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK