289
FXUS63 KGLD 011111
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog is possible this morning, especially for NW Kansas
  and SW Nebraska. Dense fog may be possible again Tuesday
  morning, favoring those east of Highway 25.

- Near average temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s
  are forecast through the mid part of the week.

- Storm chances are forecast to be lower, with a few showers or
  storms possible each day this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Similar to yesterday, fog has been observed in eastern portions of
the area, with dense fog observed at Norton and Oberlin at 2am CT.
Winds have had a slight easterly component across much of the area
which is allowing low level moisture to advect in and help spread
fog and low cloud cover. The fog should expand maybe a county or two
to the west and south, before running into drier air and more
southwesterly winds that should hinder the fog growth. With this, a
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect early this morning for counties
along and east of a line from Dundy county to Logan county. Have
decent confidence that fog won`t expand farther west with Wray,
Goodland, and Leoti all reporting west/southwesterly winds and
dewpoint in the low to mid 50s. The other interesting thing to watch
for will be the potential for some showers and maybe a few storms
close to sunrise for counties east of Highway 83. An upper
low/shortwave has been observed over Central Nebraska, moving south
towards the aforementioned area. With the available lo level
moisture, the shortwave may provide just enough support/lift for the
showers/storms to form and move through during the morning hours.

For the afternoon hours, sunny skies are forecast for most of the
area with highs warming to around 80. A few locales in the east may
stay closer to the mid 70s depending on how long the cloud cover
lingers. With the upper ridge continuing to amplify west of the
area, most of the area should not see any showers and storms.
Eastern portions of the could see a few showers and storms as the
main upper trough axis swings through the area, though the
environment should be fairly stable. With this, overall shower/storm
coverage should be limited and severe storms are not expected at
this time.

Tonight, fairly similar conditions are forecast for the area as
surface high pressure tries to set up over the eastern portions of
the area. With this, locales generally east of Highway 25 may see
easterly winds develop again and bring some low level moisture into
the area. Fog and low clouds would be possible again, including the
potential for dense fog. Lows for eastern portions of the area
should be around 60. The rest of the area should have slightly
westerly winds and drier air, allowing lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The general unsettled pattern in the long-term is expected to remain
as we remain under northwesterly flow. We will have a high pressure
system over the Four Corners region with low pressure to the
northeast of the Great Plains. This will support moderate
temperatures, like in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and a few chances at
precipitation. The main limiting factors to precipitation over the
next week will be mid-level moisture return and instability. We do
look to have a few cold fronts moving through the area, which would
provide enough lift to start off precipitation, if the other two
ingredients are in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Fog
has been observed about 30-50 miles northeast of the terminal as
of 11Z. The current forecast favors the fog staying away from
the terminal with the dry air in place. Winds should generally
be around 10 kts from the north through the day, becoming light
and variable going into the night hours.

For KMCK... The forecast is hard for this terminal as
surrounding areas have dense fog, but KMCK has had varying
visibility between 1 and 5 SM along with varying ceilings around
200-800ft. This is further going to be varied by storms trying
to approach from the north around 12-14Z. The current forecast
favors the storms staying just northeast, but they could form
along an outflow and move over the terminal. The outflow will
also likely continue to help the visibility and ceilings vary.
Conditions should become more stead after 15Z, with the fog
ending and ceilings slowly lifting through about 18-20Z. After
that, skies should be clear for the afternoon and evening hours.
Fog and low clouds are forecast to move over the terminal again
tonight, generally after 06-08Z. Ceilings below 1000ft and dense
fog are possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001>004-
     014>016-028-029.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK