266
FXUS63 KGLD 161111
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for storms continue today, with the chance for severe
  storms late in the day into the evening.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue through early
  next week. Strong to severe storms are possible as well.

- Temperatures return to the 90s Friday, continually warming
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Stratus and patchy fog, along with north-northeasterly winds,
will keep temperatures today in mid 70s in the northern CWA with
upper 80s expected along the southern edges of the CWA. Light
showers or a few storms may form in the morning and linger
through the day as multiple boundaries interact with each other
and we a near saturation at the surface. Starting around 23Z, we
are expecting the main wave of storms to start firing in eastern
Colorado and move east. Another area of development may occur
in the southeastern CWA around 1-3Z. These storms could be
capable of producing hail up to 1.5-2 inches initially, but will
become more of a wind threat as the event progresses. Gusts up
around 70 MPH would likely be the max winds from this event.
There is a <10% chance of localized flooding. Areas will be most
susceptible to flooding if they receive showers during the day
and multiple rounds of heavy rainfall during the event. Most of
the storm activity will occur south of I-70, but weaker storms
are still likely across the northern CWA.

The storms look to start exiting the area around 6Z, but
lingering precipitation will continue until Thursday morning.
Low temperatures tonight look to cool into the mid 50s to low
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Thursday is forecast to be post frontal as high temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid 70s. It may be even cooler as moisture
will still remain across the area especially if cloud cover
lingers through the day. Some weak vorticity off of the Rockies
during the day may lead to some additional shower and storm
potential but at this time am not expecting any severe weather
at this time. Into the weekend a surface high develops across
the southeast portion of the CONUS as longwave trough develops
across the western portions of the CONUS. Moisture is forecast
to remain in place as well which suggests that daily chances for
showers and storms and potentially severe weather through the
weekend.

The surface high pressure across the south does appear to begin to
shift to north during the start of next week which favors hot
temperatures returning to the area. Depending on the orientation
of the high some monsoonal moisture may advect into the area as
well which would support storm development along the western
periphery of the high pressure. If the high pressure shifts to
the east then a better coverage of storms would be possible
across the area, but if it shifts to the west then rainfall
would be confined to Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... Rough aviation conditions are forecast for
most of the period. Ceilings are forecast to remain around
400-900ft for a majority of the morning between 12-18Z, with
some slight improvement to 1500-2500ft possible after 15Z.
Adding to the problems is that there are still some outflows
from overnight storms that may temporarily improve conditions,
only to have them degrade again shortly after.

Between 18Z and 01Z, there is a chance that the ceilings could
lift above 3000ft and VFR conditions prevail. Still may need to
watch for a pop up shower or storm and wind gusts could reach
20-30 kts from the south. After 01Z, storms are possible as
clusters develop west of the terminals and move east. The
ceilings are also forecast to lower back below 2000ft, with
ample moisture remaining in the area. Once storms pass, ceilings
should lower to around 500ft. Fog will also be possible, with
visibilities around 1-3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK