404
FXUS63 KGLD 091915
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog is possible tonight, mainly in Northwestern Kansas
  and Southwestern Nebraska.

- Warm through most of the weekend, with high temperatures
  generally in the 80s and maybe some low 90s.

- Potential for breezy winds and low chances of precipitation
  over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Observations around the noon hour showed the remaining cloud cover
dissipating with sunny skies across most of the area. The remainder
of the afternoon and most of the evening hours should have the clear
skies continue, with temperatures maxing out in the upper 70s and
80s. Winds will likely remain below 10 mph with the broad area of
surface low pressure over the area.

Late this evening and during the overnight hours, a surface ridge
(higher pressure) is forecast to push into the area from the north.
This will shift winds to out of the north, but likely still with
speeds below 10 mph. While the higher pressure should eventually
bring some drier air in with it, it is forecast to actually
concentrate the lower level moisture along the leading edge.
Assuming that too much dry air doesn`t mix in from the lower levels,
dense fog and low stratus clouds are forecast to form and sweep
through the area from north to south. This would mainly impact
Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas, with a smaller chance that
parts of Yuma and Kit Carson counties in Eastern Colorado also
seeing fog. If the forecast is correct, the fog and lowest clouds
would likely be transitory, leading to patches of the area being
impacted while the rest of the area has either clear or partly
cloudy skies. Lows should drop into the 40s and 50s before any fog
or cloud cover sets up.

For Friday, a seasonable day is forecast for the area. Any fog that
is in the area should burn off by mid-morning as daytime heating
kicks in. With the area still under an upper ridge, the flow over
the area should be semi-weak. Wind speeds should climb to 10-15 mph
as the pressure gradient tightens a bit from lower pressure
developing along the Front Range. Temperatures should warm into the
70s and lower 80s, before mid and high level cloud cover moves in
later in the afternoon.

During the late afternoon hours and into the overnight hours, there
will be low chances for some showers. Moisture is forecast to stream
in from the southwest along the next upper trough, especially with
the moisture added from Tropical Storm Priscilla. While the moisture
return should be good, the low chance for showers stems from a
forecast lack of forcing. With the ridge overhead, upper subsidence
is forecast to be in place. There might be some weak surface
convergence depending on how strong the low pressure gets, but it
looks like the chances are tied to moisture content and
availability. It could also lead to a scenario with a mix of fog and
mist instead. In either case, a few showers should move through with
cloudy skies across the area. With the cloud cover, temperatures
should stay in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the weekend, an upper trough is forecast to move through the
Western United States and swing through the Northern Plains. This is
forecast to help develop the low pressure system along the Front
Range Saturday, and then push it through the area as a low/cold
front on Sunday. With the passage likely to be during the
afternoon/evening on Sunday, temperatures should warm into the 80s
and maybe the low 90s both days. With the system moving through,
winds should be stronger around 15-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
While breezy, it is unlikely that these winds would produce much
blowing dust or any associated hazards. From the precipitation side
of things, there will be some chances with the low and front in the
area. However, the moisture content at any particular level doesn`t
look to be enough for widespread precipitation at this time. So for
now, a few showers and storms with low impacts remains the forecast.

Towards the beginning of the week, we start under upper level
troughing. In the wake of the front, this should allow for
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. We may have a few chance for
precipitation with moisture still forecast to try and stream in from
the southwest. As the week progresses, a ridge is forecast to
redevelop over the Southern United States. As it does so, it will
allow temperatures to warm closer to the 70s and 80s while also
lowering our chances for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For KGLD... Clear skies are forecast through about 09Z. Winds
are forecast to be light and variable with a surface low
pressure system over the area. Late tonight and into tomorrow
morning, there is a 50-60% chance of low ceilings and dense fog
setting up over the terminal as a surface ridges nudges in with
plenty of radiational cooling. The reason confidence is not
higher is that drier air and lower dewpoints may also move in
and inhibit fog/cloud development. After 15/16Z, warming
temperatures should be able to dissipate any clouds or fog that
develops. Winds should increase from the east to around 10-15
kts.

For KMCK... Clear skies are forecast through at least 03Z as the
last of the fog and low cloud cover dissipate. Winds are
forecast to be from the south, but could begin to try and shift
from out of the north depending on where the center of the
surface low drifts. Tonight, dense fog and low ceilings are
forecast to develop as a surface ridge moves in and as
temperatures cool with the light winds and clear skies. They may
develop early around 03-06Z and then linger until about 12Z. The
reason for the early exit is the advancing ridge should
eventually push it all south of the terminal. Overall confidence
is around 70% that the fog and low clouds will develop. The
potential inhibitor is if drier air can move in ahead of the
ridge and lessen the moisture content in the lower levels.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK