667
FXUS63 KGLD 112252
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
452 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- NNE to NE winds may briefly gust up to 45 mph during a modest
  cold frontal passage shortly after sunrise Tuesday, mainly
  between 6-9 AM MDT (7-10 AM CDT).

- Expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures through
  the work week, hottest on Thursday and Friday when highs are
  forecast to reach the upper 80`s to mid 90`s.

- Marginally critical fire weather conditions possible over
  portions of the area throughout the work week. At this time,
  relatively light winds (below ~25 mph) appear to be the main
  limiting factor.

- A dryline across portions of Western Kansas Thursday afternoon
  may support multiple hazards, including severe thunderstorms
  and critical fire weather. Confidence in either scenario is
  about 5-10%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Today-Tonight: An amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest and southern-central Rockies/High Plains will foster
warmer and drier conditions with highs ~82-87F and minimum RH
readings ~20-25%, possibly lower (~15%) in Yuma County, CO.
15-25 knot southwesterly low-level flow on the eastern periphery
of a surface trough in the lee of the Rockies will foster
somewhat breezy SW winds at ~15-20 mph sustained with occasional
gusts to 25-30 mph this afternoon. Brief/localized marginally
critical fire weather conditions are possible. Expect warmer
overnight (Tue morning) lows in the upper 40`s to mid 50`s.

Tue-Tue night: Surface pressure rises in the lee of the
northern Rockies.. associated with height rises / synoptic
subsidence on the western periphery of a vigorous upper level
wave digging southeastward from Manitoba to the Upper Great
Lakes.. will drive an inverted surface ridge southward into the
Central Plains around sunrise Tue, the leading edge of which
will manifest as an abrupt NNE-NE wind shift and very modest
effective cold frontal passage. Modest in the sense that.. the
airmass advecting southward into the Tri-State Area ~12Z Tue
morning will be characterized by 850 mb temps ~12-14C.. the same
as today`s (12Z Monday) 850 mb temps. With this in mind, expect
highs roughly on par with today, albeit a few degrees cooler in
northeast CO. GFS, RAP and HRRR forecast soundings indicate NNE
to NE low-level flow on the order of 25-35 knots in the
immediate wake of the front, suggesting sustained winds around
20-30 mph w/gusts to ~40 mph for a short period after sunrise
(12-15Z/6-9 am MDT). Winds will begin to weaken during the late
morning and continue to weaken during the afternoon, decreasing
to 15-20 mph by 18-21Z (12-3p MDT) and 10-15 mph during the late
afternoon. A short period of marginally critical fire weather
conditions are possible, mainly east and south of Goodland
during the early afternoon, when/where somewhat breezy NNE-NE
winds may briefly overlap with RH readings ~15-20%. Winds will
further weaken and veer to the E and SE overnight as surface
high pressure in central Nebraska builds southward into north-
central Kansas. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the mid-
upper 40`s.

Wed-Wed night: The aforementioned upper level ridge will shift
eastward over the High Plains on Wed. A southerly flow regime
will return during the day as the MSLP-850 mb height gradient
reorients/tightens in response to renewed surface pressure falls
/lee trough development/ in CO. Forecast soundings indicate
15-25 knot southerly flow within a ~6,000 ft mixed layer during
the afternoon, suggesting S winds around 15-20 mph w/gusts to
30 mph. Expect highs ~83-86F and minimum RH readings ~15-25%.
Brief/localized marginally critical fire weather conditions are
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

***Synopsis***

A negatively tilted upper-level shortwave trough is favored to
cross the Montana-Wyoming Rockies Thursday morning. This feature
would produce a broad surface low pressure across the Northern
and Central Great Plains, with potentially a secondary low along
the Colorado- Kansas border. A dryline may be allowed to set up
across portions of Western Kansas Thursday afternoon from this
synoptic setup, though confidence in the Western extent and
strength of the dryline are in question. A weak cold front
appears favored to come through during the evening or overnight
hours as well. Upper-level ridging may move in by Saturday
morning, allowing southerly flow to return. At the same time,
troughing looks to be developing over the Western United States.
How this trough evolves in time and space is uncertain at this
time, though it may provide warm and wet conditions while it is
to our west, and cooler conditions as it moves in overhead.

***Thursday***

High temperatures on Thursday are forecast in the upper 80s to
mid 90s. The presence of a dryline across portions of Western
Kansas Thursday may promote several hazards across the forecast
area, including thunderstorms (some of which may be severe) and
critical fire weather. Again, the exact location of the dryline
is uncertain at this time, though will be dependent on the
timing of the associated trough coming across the Rockies.
Around 20% or less of LREF members place the incoming trough as
far west as Northern Utah by 6 am Thursday, whereas the
remainder of the solutions have the trough further northeast in
Montana. The slower progression would support a dryline further
west, with a greater severe weather potential, whereas the
faster progression would support an eastern placement, with a
greater critical fire weather potential.

While LREF mean and 50th percentile guidance place the 50
degree dew point contour along and east of the US-83 Corridor,
higher end 90th percentile scenarios show this contour as far
west as the Kansas- Colorado Border, with upper-50 dew point
temperatures in portions of Norton and Graham Counties in
Kansas. These higher-end scenarios could be associated with
around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, and up to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk
wind shear. This could support some strong storms capable of
isolated 60 mph gusts, and 1-2 inch hail. Confidence in this
scenario occurring is highest in eastern portions of the CWA
(Norton and Graham Counties), but is only around 5-10% due to
ensemble guidance favoring the faster trough evolution. Still,
this is an important development to keep an eye on in the days
ahead.

In addition to the severe threat, forecast guidance shows the
potential for relative humidities (RH) to drop into the low to
mid- teens on the dry side of the dryline. The greatest risk for
critical fire weather conditions looks to be across portions of
Eastern Colorado, where wind gusts have up to a 75% chance to
reach criteria for the hazard according to the NBM. Still, LREF
guidance suggests a 25% chance or less for most locations to
experience RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria, the
exception being across Western portions of Cheyenne County in
Colorado, where there is up to a 45% chance. Confidence in a Red
Flag Warning being needed is highest across portions of Eastern
Colorado at this time, around 5- 10%.

***Friday***

Forecast highs are in the lower 80s to lower 90s, a little
lower than Thursday`s highs due to a cold frontal passage.
Northerly to northwesterly winds across the CWA through the
early afternoon may promote dry conditions, with RH values in
the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather conditions may once
again be a concern, though weaker wind gusts may limit the
threat for the hazard. Forecast guidance suggests wind gusts may
max out around 25 mph during the early to mid afternoon, with
up to a 60% chance for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather
criteria in Eastern Colorado according to the NBM. However,
considering that gusts are favored to weaken throughout the
afternoon, and not get much higher than 25 mph throughout the
day, any critical fire weather conditions look to be brief in
nature. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Friday
is less than 5%.

***Saturday-Monday***

Forecast certainty begins to decline Saturday regarding how a
trough across the Western United States develops. Two solutions
seem to be evident from this system: (1) it deepens across the
West Coast and remains to the west of the forecast area, and (2)
it broadens and moves eastward across the Northern United
States, with the trough axis across the Northern High Plains by
Sunday morning. For our CWA, solution 1 would be associated with
warm, and potentially wet conditions sustained through the end
of the forecast period, whereas solution 2 would start out
similar to scenario 1, but bring a cold front through the
forecast area Sunday or Monday. Precipitation may still be
experienced behind the cold front in scenario 2, but would be
more light, isolated, and short-lived than solution 1.
Currently, about 60% of LREF members are in favor of solution 2,
with about 40% favoring solution 1. This is reflected in
current forecast guidance, with high temperatures forecast lower
on Monday (70s) than Saturday and Sunday (80s and 90s), in
addition to reduced chances for precipitation Monday. The
development of this trough will be something to keep an eye on
as we move closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the 18Z TAF
period at both terminals. SW winds at ~13-18 knots w/gusts to
~20-24 knots this afternoon will back to the S and decrease to
8-13 knots an hour or so prior to sunset (~01Z). Light S to SSW
winds will persist overnight. Low-level wind shear assoc/w a
southwesterly nocturnal low-level jet is expected late this
evening into early Tue morning. LLWS will abate prior to sunrise
(09-11Z Tue). Surface winds will abruptly shift to the N or NE
and increase to 20-25 knots w/gusts up to 30-35 knots during a
modest cold frontal passage shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Tue).
Winds will decrease to 15-20 knots by late morning (~15-16Z)
and further decrease to 10-15 knots during the early-mid
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent