270
FXUS63 KGLD 311708
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1108 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog chances continue through Tuesday morning.

- Chances for rain both today and Monday.

- Monday could bring some strong winds with gusts around 30-60
  mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The dense fog advisory has been cancelled. Persistent higher
level cloud cover, rain, and a weak warm front advancing through
the area have ended the dense fog. Fog with visibility around 1
to 6 miles remains forecast through the morning. It wouldn`t be
unreasonable for a patch or two of dense fog to develop around
sunrise, but it would likely have small aerial coverage and be
somewhat brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Current observations have broad upper troughing over the Western
United States with ridging over the Southeastern United States. This
continues to keep the area under southwest flow aloft. The upper
shortwave has also moved over the area, limiting showers to the far
eastern parts of the area. At the surface, we are dealing with more
patchy fog. The fog currently is less consistent then other nights,
likely due to a surface boundary with precipitation and insulation
from mid to high level cloud cover. We do keep the
southerly/easterly flow with a high to the southeast and a low to
the northwest. This should help low clouds and fog develop across
most of the area. However, the dense fog will likely be limited to
locales near the Tri-State border with this area farther away from
the rain. We`ve had reports of dense fog along the Nebraska border,
so most counties along the border remain in a Dense Fog Advisory
through 10am MT / 11am CT.

For the daytime hours, the area is forecast to be under cloud cover
for most of the day. However, the area will be split into two.
Counties along the Colorado border are forecast to at least briefly
clear of cloud cover during the afternoon as the upper trough moves
northeast and the surface low expands into some of the area.
Temperatures would then warm into the 60s with the clearer skies.
This part of the area likely would see no precipitation. The eastern
part of the area (mainly along and west of a line from Benkelman, NE
to Leoti, KS) would conversely see cloud cover through the day. Rain
showers are also forecast to pass through, with chances higher the
further east you area. This looks to be a combo of the low advancing
and providing some forcing, along with saturated low and mid-levels.
Instability continues to be forecast to be lacking, some rain totals
would likely be below a few tenths of an inch. Temperatures are
forecast to remain more in the 50s for this area.

Tonight, upper level ridging is forecast to push in and begin to
reduce some of the mid and higher level cloud cover. That being
said, there should still be plenty of cloud cover with continued low
level southeasterly flow bring in moisture. Fog will also likely
develop within the area with the moisture moving in. Dense fog is a
tad bit more likely with the precipitation forecast to end and
little change in the surface features to mess up the formation. Lows
should again be in the 40s.

Sunday, any fog that had developed should slowly burn off through
the morning and likely still be dense through much of the morning.
Otherwise, the upper level southwesterly flow is forecast to return
with the ridge likely shifting east and allowing for more mid to
high level cloud cover to move over the area. This should limit
temperatures to the 50s and 60s again. The main condition change is
that the winds should strengthen as the upper trough over the west
is forecast to deepen and move towards the area. As it does so, it
should deepen the surface low to the west which would cause winds to
reach 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Sunday night, I know this is shocking, but we have another chance
for fog as long as the surface low doesn`t push into the area fully.
The continued southerly/southeasterly flow and ample moisture
available would again allow for fog and dense fog to form. One of
the main differences is that this fog may be short lived and
dissipate close to sunrise. As alluded to, if the surface low pushes
fully through, the low level flow would become more westerly and
less favorable for fog. So western parts of the area may wake up to
no fog and lesser cloud cover. The fog may also be disrupted in
other parts of the area as the low provides some forcing for showers
and maybe a storm to develop. But with the current rack favoring a
more northerly path for the low center, the precipitation is
forecast to initially be limited. As for temperatures, lows are
again forecast to be in the upper 40s and 50s.

Monday brings a change of pace as the surface low pushes through
along with a cold front. This will not only lead to an increase in
the winds, but provide some precipitation chances with the front
moving through a moist environment. Showers are more likely, due to
the continued low instability and early passage. As for the wind,
speeds are likely to reach 15-30 mph with the higher speeds in the
west due to the earlier front passage. Gusts are currently forecast
to be more around 30-50 mph with a few 60 mph gusts. The limiter is
that the system is forecast to broaden and shift the center north,
which should keep winds through most of the profile closer to 30-40
kts. There is about a 30% chance that a deepening and slower
progression occurs which would allow wind gusts to be stronger with
more frequent 50-60 mph gusts. Even so, this looks like it would be
confined to the western half of the area if it did occur.
Temperatures are forecast to be more in the 50s behind the cold
front for the western half, with 60s for the eastern half.

Overnight Monday, there is more variance on the wind as how quickly
the upper trough pushes east is in question, but winds should remain
a bit elevated around 15-25 mph from the northwest. Fog and rain
showers are forecast to continue with the moisture forecast to
linger and no strong push of dry air yet. Dense fog chances would be
lower with the unfavorable wind direction and stronger speeds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Next week starting on Tuesday and through Friday, we are
forecast to be in a revolving upper-level trough and ridge
pattern over the area. On Tuesday, it is expected that the
trough system from the short-term period will slide east,
bringing in a cold front, and putting us into northwesterly flow
aloft as a de-amplifying ridge follows in from the souther
Rockies on Wednesday. Once the ridge completely de-amplifies and
flattens out over us, it would likely put us into zonal flow on
Thursday. After this, a possible additional ridge could form in
to the south and amplify to the north on Friday. With this being
said, there is some marginal spread of uncertainty within the
overall evolution of the pattern. While zonal flow is favored,
GEFS ensemble spread shows some variability of the small trough
on Thursday that could lead into slightly northwesterly flow
before the ridge arrives Friday. There is low confidence (30%)
that upper-level northwesterly flow will occur earlier on
Thursday.

Afternoon temperatures for this long-term period continue to be
fairly consistent with highs forecast to be in the 50s. However
on Wednesday and onward, near freezing morning temperatures are
expected to occur in the Tri-State border area. With the spread
of the overall pattern later in the week, there is low
confidence (20%) that temperatures could drop a few degrees into
below freezing over the entire County Warning Area (CWA) if the
pattern becomes northwesterly. Otherwise, morning lows will
likely be in the 30s and slightly above freezing.

On Tuesday, showers and strong winds are expected to end once
the initial trough system passes by. Showers are likely to exit
out of the area before the mid afternoon hours with winds from
the northwest decreasing from 30 mph to 10 mph. For the rest of
the period, we can expect the winds to be calm and shift a
couple of times with the changing pattern. Clouds should remain
relatively low before possibly building back up on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1054 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to dominate, with occasional drops
to IFR/LIFR, this afternoon and early evening for KGLD and
KMCK. Southeasterly gusts around 20-30 kts are expected across
the region this afternoon, as well as showers that may impact
KMCK. We are expecting IFR conditions to return overnight,
potentially nearing airport minimums yet again. Sunday, late
morning, winds are forecast to be picking up with improving
flight categories into the afternoon hours.

KGLD amendments will be excluding ceiling and sky coverage
updates until the ceilometer has been returned to service.
Technicians are currently investigating the issue.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAK
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...CA