761
FXUS63 KGLD 110520
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and near average temperatures expected over
  the weekend.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry
  conditions next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Overview: Modest WNW flow aloft (today) will transition to NW-
NNW flow aloft on Saturday as an amplifying upper level ridge
over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners extends northward over the
central and northern Rockies.

Today-Tonight: Not like yesterday. The robust mesoscale
convective system (MCS) that traversed the region late yesterday
evening and very early this morning substantially altered
environmental conditions over the Tri-State Area, where cooler
temperatures associated with a lingering mesoscale high have
maintained a fair amount of convective inhibition and a modified
elevated mixed layer characterized by modest (7.0-7.5 C/km)
mid-level lapse rates have stunted diurnal destabilization,
limiting instability to ~500-1000 J/kg (mlcape). As of 21Z,
warmer temperatures / more substantial airmass recovery at
higher elevations on the Palmer Divide (between Colorado Springs
and Limon) has resulted in the development of scattered diurnal
convection. Unorganized updrafts moving with the mean wind
(from the WNW, 290@15 KT) could eventually progress downstream
into western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO. Given that
right-mover motion is from the NNW (340@15KT), cyclonic updrafts
will tend to propagate southeast toward La Junta/Lamar,
paralleling the Goodland CWA. On the other hand, with left-mover
motion from the SW (240@15KT), anticyclonic splits (if long-
lived) could readily propagate into western Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent
(18-19-20Z) runs of the HRRR suggest that organized convection
will largely be confined west and south of the Goodland CWA.
Localized wind gusts to ~70 mph are the primary threat. A few
instances of large hail are possible with anticyclonic updrafts
(if present).

Sat-Sat night: Modest low-level southerly flow will return to
the Tri-State Area on Sat, as a broad N-S elongated surface
trough develops in the lee of the central-nothern Rockies.
Despite airmass recovery, guidance suggests that synoptic
subsidence beneath the amplifying ridge will tend to suppress
convective development. Even if diurnal convection develops
along the Colorado Front Range or higher elevations on the
Palmer Divide, steering flow from the NNW or N would tend to
keep activity in close proximity to the Rockies. Expect dry
conditions in the Goodland CWA and near average highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500-mb ridge will
be overhead throughout the long term forecast period. High
temperatures are forecast to be primarily in the lower 90s
through Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidities (RH) look to
steadily drop throughout the period, but are forecast to remain
above 20% across the area. This would keep heat index values in
the upper 80s and lower 90s at least through Wednesday
afternoon, well below the threshold for a Heat Advisory (Heat
Index greater than 105 degrees).

Forecast guidance shows high temperatures highest toward the
end of next week, in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. This may
be linked to a stronger upper-level trough beginning to break
down the longwave ridge across the Western United States.
However, there is uncertainty regarding the strength and track
of this trough, in addition to whether it will actually be
successful in breaking down the ridge. If this feature can break
down the ridge a bit and move more into the Northern United
States, increased southerly flow ahead of a surface low may
allow for the slight temperature increase. This could aid in RH
values dropping into the lower 20s across portions of East-
Central Colorado. While this is above critical fire weather
criteria, it will be something to keep an eye on, as fuels have
remained relatively dry across this zone despite recent
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Currently VFR conditions are forecast for each terminal but have
some concerns for stratus and perhaps some patchy fog
development through sunrise. Very moist conditions with falling
dew point depressions and light winds are ongoing and looking
upstream into central Nebraska am already seeing some fog
development. RRFS and RAP soundings both suggest falling LCL`s
as well through 13Z for each terminal so am opting to include
IFR to LIFR conditions in this set of TAFS. Stratus seems to be
the most likely outcome with the exception of MCK where the
lightest winds are forecast to setup at. If current clouds do
not break enough then stratus or fog may not even be a concern.
There is a less than 5% chance that some showers or a rogue
storm impacts either terminal overnight as well. Winds are
forecast to increase late Saturday morning through the
afternoon with sustained winds around 15-20 mph.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg