453
FXUS63 KGLD 302257
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
457 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures are likely to persist through the remainder
  of the week.

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may produce
  1-2 inch hail and winds up around 75 MPH, leading to blowing
  dust. Blowing dust may lead to localized brownout conditions.
  Most likely timing for storms is between 3 PM and 10 PM MT.

- Scattered thunderstorms may occur again tomorrow afternoon
  and evening. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary
  threat, but hail up to 1.5 inches is also possible.

- A mainly dry period is expected Thursday and Friday before
  another chance for storms on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Over the next couple of days, we will be sitting under southwesterly
flow as a high sits over the east central CONUS and a low sits
around the Great Basin region. This will allow shortwaves to ride
the jet and cause disturbances in the CWA. This will lead to hot and
dry conditions at the surface with chances at storms with any
shortwave troughs.

Today, before we get the bulk of our first shortwave trough,
temperatures will climb into the 90s, with tomorrow being pretty
similar. We have a weak dryline set up from about Norcatur, through
Colby, down to around Leoti. This is allowing some weak convection
fire off in the midday. This midday convection may weaken the
environment for this afternoon and evening`s event.

Around 20-22Z, a 500 mb shortwave trough is expected to be pushing
into the CWA. This will fire off storms in the far southern portions
of the CWA. These storms will move northeast, and should exit around
4-7Z. We are looking at high-based storms in an inverted V
environment, meaning there is effectively no tornadic potential.
However, dry micro bursts are possible today. Additionally, there
was some guidance overnight suggesting the storms cluster together
and a bowing segment forms. These may lead to gusts as high as 70-75
kts. If gusts above 50 kts occur, blowing dust becomes likely,
including plumes and a wall of dust leading to brownout conditions.
In combination of the midday convection and weak forcing, there is a
20% chance that only a couple of storms fire, and may even remain
sub-severe.

Tonight, we could see some lingering showers until as late as 9Z,
but little precipitation is expected from them or the main storms in
the evening. Lows look to cool into the upper 50s in the
northwestern CWA and low 70s in the eastern CWA. Yuma county, which
looks to be the coolest spot tonight, has a 15% chance of seeing
some patchy fog around sunrise in valleys.

Tomorrow is very similar to today, but with less mid-level forcing
for the storms and less potential for midday convection. The storms
tomorrow look to fire off the dryline 21-00Z. The dryline looks to
be northeast/southwest oriented around the Tribune to Norcatur area.
This is also the direction storms will be traveling. Due to this
orientation, and storms more likely to stay along the boundary,
there is an increased risk of landspouts, mainly between 22-2Z.
However, winds up to 60 kts and hail up to 1.5 inches look to be the
main threats.

Tomorrow night, we could see lingering showers and weak storms stick
around until as late as 12Z. Once again, we`re not expecting a lot
of precipitation to come out of these storms. However, if the storms
train over the same area, localized amounts up to 2 inches of rain
is possible on the northeastern extent of the line of convection.
Temperatures look be similar to tonight`s, as well as the low end
fog threat.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Scattered convection looks to remain possible Wednesday. Then
as upper level ridging noses northward Thursday into Friday, a
lull in convection appears to occur. By Saturday a strong
shortwave is slated to cross the Northern Plains. Our area will
be on the southern flank of the stronger forcing, but there will
be some chance for storms as a cold front settles southward
through the area. Upper level ridging then begins to build
northward Sunday into the first of next week. It will be quite
warm through the period, with the hottest day slated to be
Friday, when highs in the upper 90s to near 100 are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

Thursday morning, a 500-mb high looks to be set up across the
Eastern United States, with troughing across the west. This pattern
would produce southwesterly upper-level flow across the County
Warning Area (CWA). Several shortwave systems may be embedded in
this flow. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is consistent on
a shortwave ridge overhead to start the period, with a shortwave
trough that comes through during the afternoon and evening hours. A
surface low pressure at the leading edge of this shortwave trough
would establish southerly surface winds across the forecast region
throughout the day. Temperatures are likely to be hot, with current
forecast guidance suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s across
the area.

Winds to the south of the low may be a bit more southwesterly. This
would promote drying conditions, particularly across portions of
East-Central Colorado. According to LREF guidance, the western
halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado have over a
50% chance of relative humidities (RH) dropping below 15%, with as
high as an 80% chance along their western borders. Forecast guidance
suggests that RH values dropping into the single-digits. Wind
gusts may increase through the afternoon hours as well, with NBM
guidance suggesting up to a 75% chance for gusts to exceed
critical fire weather criteria (>25 mph). The good news is that
recent rainfall may prevent significant drying of fuels,
limiting the risk for critical fire weather. If fuels can become
dry enough, a Red Flag Warning may need to be considered across
this zone.

Thunderstorm activity may also be in play Thursday afternoon and
evening ahead of a dryline. LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or
greater to see surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric
instability) values 1000 J/kg or higher along and east of Kansas
Highway 25. However, the same guidance suggests that 0-500mb wind
shear will max out around 30 kts in this zone, which would suggest
mostly non-severe thunderstorms. The best chance for any severe
weather would be if near 90th percentile CAPE can be experienced
(2500-3500 J/kg), which could promote hail earlier in the storms`
life cycles. Confidence in severe thunderstorms occurring
Thursday afternoon and evening is 5% or less at this time.

Similar conditions are possible on Friday, except without the
thunderstorm potential. High temperatures are currently forecast in
the mid 90s to lower 100s. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values
may drop into the mid single-digits in some locations of East-
Central Colorado. However, wind gusts look to be a bit lighter
during the afternoon than on Thursday. Even if fuels are able to
dry out significantly by then, the confidence in a Red Flag
Warning being needed is low at this time.


***Saturday***

Ensemble guidance is confident in troughing from the west lifting
northeast by Saturday, as another shortwave trough moves in
overhead. As this occurs, a cold front is favored to move through
the area. High temperatures are forecast slightly lower in the lower
to upper 90s, but RH values look to improve a bit as this process
takes place. Thunderstorms may occur along the cold front as well.
LREF guidance suggests that 0-500mb shear may reach the 30-40 kt
range, which could support some thunderstorms becoming severe. Even
so, confidence in a severe event Saturday afternoon and evening is
only about 5%.


***Sunday-Tuesday***

Upper-level ridging looks to take over by Sunday, and last through
the end of the forecast period. A slow moving high at the leading
edge of this system may prevent winds from becoming fully out of the
south until Tuesday. This is reflected in the forecast highs of
upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday, and low to mid 90s on
Tuesday. Additionally, easterly surface winds from this high on
Sunday and Monday could produce a convergence zone across Kansas.
This boundary may support thunderstorm development as well.
Confidence is low at this time that these storms will become severe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 454 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period, but ceilings may drop a bit below 3000ft if a storm can
move over the terminal. The best window for storms looks to be
between 01-03Z. Be alert that these storms could produce large
hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 kts. After the storms pass,
the low level jet should kick in with winds around 200-400ft at
45-50kts. This should cause low level wind shear through about
12-14Z. After that, winds lower a bit while staying roughly from
the south/southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...KAK