326
FXUS63 KGLD 150430
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
930 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the weekend.

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will force
a dry cold front through the area tonight. Slightly cooler
temperatures and breezy north winds will follow for Saturday.
Highs will be around 70 with winds gusting 20 to 30 mph from mid
morning through early afternoon, then diminishing. Lows
Saturday night will be in the upper 30s. Sunday will be mostly
sunny with shortwave ridging ahead of a system approaching the
southern Rockies. Highs will be in the mid 60s withe breezy
southeast winds. Models show an upper low cutting off Sunday
night, though in slightly different locations. GFS has the low,
and most of the precipitation, in northeast Colorado compared to
the ECMWF solution which brings the low into northwest Kansas
Monday morning. Either way, looks to be fairly low impact with
total QPF less than a tenth of an inch and temperatures
supporting all rain as opposed to snow. Monday will be slightly
cooler with highs ranging from the upper 50s in southwest
Nebraska where clouds linger the longest to the middle 60s in
west central Kansas where there will be more afternoon sun.
Monday night, the upper low lifts into central Nebraska with
only slight chances for any lingering wraparound precipitation
across northern areas (Kansas-Nebraska border area). Lows will
be in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Another upper low will organize over the southwest CONUS early
next week and move into the central and southern plains mid to
late week. Ahead of the low, shortwave ridging will result in
dry conditions Tuesday and only isolated shower chances on
Wednesday. Temperatures both of those days will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s. Better precipitation
chances will potentially develop on Thursday depending on the
track, timing and strength of the upper system. At this time,
the usual model differences lead to low confidence in the
details. The GFS shows a slower, wetter scenario with a cut off
low developing in the southern plains and precipitation
lingering through Friday. However, the ECMWF shows a faster,
drier scenario with an open wave which moves out of the area
fairly quickly and only low precipitation chances. Neither model
is suggesting snow at this time with a robust warm layer just
off the surface. Temperatures do slightly cool for the end of
the week due to the expected clouds, with highs in the 50s and
lows in the 20s and 30s, which is close to normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000
ft AGL. Light WSW to W winds will veer to the WNW overnight.
Winds will shift to the NNW or N and increase to 10-15 knots in
assoc/w an effective cold frontal passage a few hours after
sunrise (~15Z Sat). At the McCook terminal.. a period of
northwesterly LLWS (~45 knots at ~1700 ft AGL) is expected
during the morning (~10-16Z Sat). LLWS is not anticipated at
the Goodland terminal. North winds may gust up to ~22 knots for
a short period after the frontal passage. Winds will weaken and
become variable by mid-afternoon (~20-21Z) and persist through
sunset. Winds will remain light (~5-10 knots) through the
remainder of the 06Z TAF period.. becoming southeasterly or
southerly by sunrise (~12Z) Sun morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent