734
FXUS63 KGLD 061105
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow continuing through this morning, with the snow
  confined to Colorado and adjacent counties in northwest
  Kansas, then ending north to south this afternoon.

- A Winter Weather Advisory continues for eastern Colorado
  through this afternoon. Snowfall accumulations up to 5 inches
  and visibility dropping down to 1 mile in heavy snow.

- Tonight through Thursday morning, temperatures are forecast to
  cool below freezing. A Freeze Warning has been issued for
  areas along and west of KS 27 and a Freeze Watch remains for
  areas to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Forecast remains on track. Rain has been changing to snow in
Colorado and at 06z Burlington has changed over, as well as
Yuma, but still rain at Wray and Goodland. Models in good
agreement at this point with precipitation type, with a
changeover to snow as far east as Highway 27 (one column into
Kansas) by 12z, continuing in those areas through 15z, then a
gradual change back to rain by 18z. Precipitation will then end
north to south through 00z as upper heights rise with the
passing of the trough axis and synoptic scale lift ends. Snow
amounts still somewhat tricky, but HRRR, RAP, NAMnest, and REFS
mean generally show 1-3" in Colorado, perhaps some locally
heavier amounts of 6" or higher in far western portions of Kit
Carson and Cheyenne counties, while 1-2" possible in adjacent
counties of northwest Kansas. Impacts from these snow amounts
somewhat debatable, with roads mostly wet, even areas much
further west where the snow has been falling all day are still
seeing wet roads as opposed to snow packed ones. However,
visibility reductions to less than 1 mile are possible where
snow is heaviest for a few hours this morning. Conclusion is
that no changes are warranted to the ongoing advisory or
messaging at this time. Freeze products for Wednesday night and
Thursday morning also appear on track, with a hard freeze
generally west of Highway 27 and light freeze to the east.
Westerly winds do increase overnight, but off a snow pack to the
west, and some clouds are also forecast to linger, neither of
which are ideal for radiational cooling, so plan on just letting
the Freeze Watch continue.

For Thursday and Friday, will be under northwest flow aloft. One
weak shortwave comes through late Thursday night which could
produce some isolated light rain showers, otherwise both days
are expected to be dry.

Temperature trends for the period will start much below normal
today with the clouds and precipitation (highs mostly in the
40s, but some 50s possible in southwest Nebraska and far eastern
areas like Norton and Hill City where rain will end earlier),
then a quick turnaround on Thursday and Friday with temperatures
slightly above normal (highs mostly in the 70s). No frost or
freeze is expected Friday or Saturday mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Thursday`s upper flow looks to have northwesterly winds with a
trough located over the southwest parts of the CONUS. Temperatures
look to warm, with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s for the
majority of the County Warning Area (CWA). As for the western parts
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in CO the highs look to be in
the mid 60s. Wind Gusts are forecast to be in the 20-25 mph, with
the highest gusts being in Yuma County around 30 mph. Looking at
precipation chances, guidance is showing about a 20% chance for the
most northwest portions of the CWA. The timing for this would be in
the overnight hours, and currently temperatures look to be above
freezing so the precipitation type should be mainly be rain. The
severe potential looks to be very low. Guidance has the maximum CAPE
values anywhere from 100-300 J/kg.

Moving on to the weekend (Friday-Sunday), guidance is showing good
constancy with the upper flow. The upper trough detaches and should
keep the winds being northwesterly. Friday highs should be in the
70s with lows in the low to mid 40s. Winds look to remain tame in
the range of 10-15 mph. There is a small chance of seeing
precipation in the early morning (12 am). Guidance has shown some
disagreement with the Probability of Exceeding 0.01". Currently the
LREF has about 15-20% chance north of I-70. The NBM has 5%-20%
chance with the main coverage of precip over Yuma, County.

Saturday will be warmer than Friday, with highs in low to mid 80s
along with lows in the 40s. Wind gusts look to be higher with values
in the 25-35 mph out of the northwest. As for precipitation chances,
Saturday has the highest potential in the long range forecast.
Currently, the timing of this looks to be Saturday afternoon into
early Sunday morning. The Probability of Exceeding 0.01" looks to be
around 20-50%. The main driving force behind this system looks to be
from a shortwave disturbance with a surface low. Looking at
guidance, there are signs of there being a front / dryline with this
system. Looking in the warm sector there are dew points in the 50-60
degree range. CAPE looks to be showing signs of being beneficial for
storms. Guidance is also showing signs of there being potential of
severe weather. However there is one key thing, this is five days
out and there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with timing and
location of the system.

Sunday, starting with temperatures highs look to be back in the 70s
and lows in the 40s. Winds look to remain calm throughout the day as
well. For precipitation chances, the main focus would be on the
system on Saturday and the timing on when it moves through the CWA.
Monday looks to warm up compared to the weekend. The high
temperatures for the day will be in the 80s, with lows in the low to
mid 40s. Winds look to calm and out of the west.

Tuesday, the upper level flow begins to transition into a ridge. The
new pattern will bring warmer temperatures. The highs are currently
forecasted in the low to mid 90s. There is some uncertainty with how
strong the ridge is. If the ridge gets stronger the probability of
exceeding 90 degrees is about 20%. One other thing to note
unfortunately is the Relative Humidity values. Currently, they are
forecasted to be in the teens. The low temperatures look to be in
mid to high 40s. This is seven days out so there is a solid amount
of uncertainty and a lot can change.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

For KGLD, IFR to near minimums will continue through the
morning, gradually improving in the midday. As of 11Z, snow is
falling at the airport, but we are expecting slight warming and
a transition back to rain later in the morning. KMCK Is still
expected to remain clear of the worst conditions and is forecast
to bounce between MVFR and VFR this morning and could see some
light rain still. By sunset, VFR conditions should have returned
to the TAF sites and west-southwesterly winds overnight will
clear out any remaining clouds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM
     MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-013-027-041.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     KSZ002-003-014-015-028-029-042.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for
     COZ090>092.
     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     NEZ079.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA/Holdren
AVIATION...CA