166
FXUS63 KGLD 081721
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather outbreak possible this afternoon
  and evening. Supercells will be possible capable of producing
  large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two.

- Flash Flooding possible this afternoon and early evening
  generally north of Interstate 70 and east of Highway 25 for
  the possibility of an area of slow moving thunderstorms.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday with
  damaging winds and blowing dust the main hazards.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as
  well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and
  adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 923 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Significant severe weather outbreak possible today, in two
rounds. 12z CAMs painting several different scenarios, resulting
in only medium confidence. RRFS and HRRR in fairly good
agreement that convection will develop north of I-70 along and
north of remnant outflow from early storms in Nebraska, though
they differ in timing. HRRR is several hours earlier compared to
the RRFS. Some clearing has been noted in recent satellite in
the Tri Border area, though clouds are persisting further east.
The 3-km NAM shows that redevelopment will not occur at all,
probably due to persistent clouds. Assuming development does
occur as shown by the RRFS and HRRR, the environment will be
characterized by 2000-3000 j/kg of SBCAPE, deep layer shear of
40-50 kts and Significant Tornado Parameter values up to 2.
Supercells will be likely, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and a tornado or two. RRFS and HRRR show these
storms slowly moving through the aforementioned area through the
remainder of the afternoon. Given the slow motion, precipitable
water values up to 1.5", high mixing ratios advecting in from
the southeast, and RRFS/HRRR showing pockets of 2-4" of
rainfall, flash flooding will also be possible. Second round of
storms will develop along the Front Range this afternoon and
approach far eastern Colorado towards 00z and into northwest
Kansas/southwest Nebraska through 03z. These storms will pose
primarily a damaging wind threat, though with the favorable
shear continuing cannot totally discount a few embedded
supercells with a large hail and a tornado risk. Storms may tend
to weaken as they get further east into the area after 03z into
the area worked over by earlier convection. Any lingering
storms overnight should be widely scattered and not pose a
severe threat.

Tuesday, a reinforcing upper trough is forecast to push in from the
northwest while the original wave ejects off to the north. As it
does so, it is forecast to bring another trough axis near the
Plains. This would cause the surface low pressure to deepen and push
off to the east, more over the area. As it does so, winds are
forecast to strengthen and shift to out of the southwest. Speed are
currently forecast to be around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 30-50
mph range. The highers speeds should favor those along the Colorado
border. The southwest winds are also forecast to bring in a dryline
and dry the air over much of the area. This combination of strong
wind and dry air are forecast to produce critical fire weather
conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most counties
along the Colorado border with the risk for very high fire danger.
Burning is not advised as fires would likely be very hard to control.
In conjunction with this, the influx of warm air is forecast to
allow temperatures to reach the 100s across most of the area.
Thankfully, the drier air should keep the overall heat risk down with
apparent temperatures lower than the actual temperatures. Still,
take extra caution if you are spending any extend period of time
outside.

During the afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire
up again with the trough axis and dryline helping to provide
additional lift. The lower moisture availability and forecast lower
0-6km shear around 30-35 kts are forecast to have the storms be more
pulse in nature. This should limit the chances for severe weather,
except when it comes to wind gusts. While there is little signal for
widespread strong gusts, the drier air near the surface could help
stronger cold pools develop. Some guidance suggests peak wind gusts
could get to 80 mph. This would again lead to a concern for
blowing dust and potential walls of dust with good organized
outflows.

Tomorrow night, any lingering showers or storms should end close to
midnight as the trough axis swings into the Plains and pushes the
better forcing to the east. It should also push any lingering
moisture to the east as well and allow for clearer skies. In spite
of the skies clearing, the warm temperatures during the day combined
with strong winds around 15-25 mph are forecast to keep temperatures
up a bit. Locales in the eastern portion of the area could stay
above 70 while those further west close to 60 or just below 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

***Synopsis***

Broad troughing at 500-mb looks to be moving in overhead Wednesday
morning, with several shortwave troughs embedded in the larger
feature. These shortwave features would each have their own
attendant surface low pressure. A weak cold front looks to be
traversing the forecast area Wednesday morning, before the second
shortwave passes Wednesday evening to provide a stronger cold front.
Northerly winds may persist on Thursday through the afternoon hours.
Forecast guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Friday, as GEFS
amd EC members are about evenly split on whether a surface high or
low will be in place across the Central High Plains. GEFS and EC 500-
mb mean spread guidance does suggest that another trough may be
slowly moving south-southeastward out of Southwest Canada beginning
Friday, which may support the low a bit more. However, even if the
surface low is able to form, the exact location is uncertain, which
could influence our weather as well.


***Wednesday/Thursday***

High temperatures are forecast to lower a bit Wednesday, but are
still in the 90s across the County Warning Area (CWA). Hot
conditions in addition to northwesterly to westerly surface flow
throughout the day would promote dry conditions, with relative
humidities (RH) in the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather
conditions may be in place Wednesday afternoon, with forecast wind
gusts as high as 30 mph. The greatest risk appears to be across
Eastern Colorado, where LREF guidance shows a 40% chance or greater
for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard, alongside NBM
guidance which suggests a 50% chance or greater for wind gusts to
meet criteria. These probabilities may reach as high as an 85%
chance for RH and 90% chance for wind gusts in far western
portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado.
Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Wednesday has
decreased a bit, but is still around 15-20% for these Eastern
Colorado Counties.

As northerly winds look to persist on Thursday, highs are forecast
to drop further into the 80s. However, dry conditions are favored to
remain, with RH values in the low to mid-teens again. Wind gusts are
forecast to weaken throughout the day Thursday, but could still be
capable of 25-30 mph in some areas, particularly in Eastern
Colorado. This zone still has a 1 in 3 chance or greater that wind
gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather during the early
afternoon hours, and as high as a 80% chance for Northwest Yuma
County. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed
Thursday is only around 5% or so since wind gusts are forecast to
weaken through the afternoon, and not meet the 3-hr duration for the
warning.


***Friday-Sunday***

Again, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon, with
uncertainty in whether a surface high or surface low will be present
across the Central High Plains. NBM 75th-25th percentile spread in
maximum temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees on Friday, and 10 to 20
degrees on Saturday, with 75th percentile values in the 100s both
days in some locations. This would be more in line with solutions
showing a surface low near the CWA, establishing southerly flow
across the area. This solution may also be associated with
precipitation. NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests that
activity between Friday and Saturday combined has up to a 50% chance
for greater than 0.1 inches to fall. This activity may be associated
with showers and thunderstorms, as LREF guidance suggests anywhere
from a few hundred to a few thousand J/kg of CAPE (a measure of
instability) to be present. Thunderstorms in this scenario could
become severe if LREF 75th percentile or greater 500-mb winds can be
experienced (35 kts or greater). Otherwise, storms would likely be
weaker in nature.

If the surface high is allowed to form, temperatures could fall as
low as the upper 70s Friday and Saturday. Precipitation may also be
lacking under this scenario. While GEFS and EC members are split on
which scenario occurs, GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance
shows a trough approaching the forecast area from the northwest,
which could slightly favor the solution with the surface low
setting up near our area. Going into Sunday, cooler conditions
appear more likely regardless of which scenario occurs, as the
high either remains in place or the low moves off to the south,
allowing a cold front to cross the area. Sunday`s highs are
currently forecast in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

At KGLD...low clouds will be slow to dissipate with IFR ceiling
possibly lingering through 21-23z this afternoon. Thunderstorms
will move out of Colorado this evening, possibly impacting the
terminal with brief gusty winds and visibility reductions in
rain between 02-06Z. Overnight, low clouds and patchy fog may
redevelop toward 12z with IFR conditions, dissipating by later
in the morning.

At KMCK...thunderstorms have already developed and may impact
the terminal with gusty winds and lowered visibility in rain
through this afternoon. Low confidence that thunderstorms in
Colorado will make it as far east as KMCK this evening, but
there is a low probability that another round may impact the
terminal. Overnight, low clouds and patchy fog may redevelop
toward 12z with IFR conditions, dissipating by later in the
morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ001-013-027.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-
     014>016.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024