314
FXUS63 KGLD 181735
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 MPH, are forecast today.
  Winds may also lead to blowing dust reducing air quality and
  visibility, especially near recently harvested fields.

- A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern Colorado,
  southwest Nebraska, the Highway 27 corridor, along with Thomas
  and Rawlins county in Kansas Saturday night into Sunday
  morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the remainder of
  the area.

- Another cold front with strong winds and perhaps dust may
  occur Monday.

- Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct
  21).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Cold front has moved through the area and winds are starting to pick
up as cold air advection and 850mb and 700mb jets strengthen.
Generally wind gusts from the north of 40-55 mph are forecast.
Although would not be surprised if some isolated instances of around
60 mph wind gusts occurs especially after 3pm as the 700mb
strengthens to around 45-55 knots and diurnal mixing will be at
its peak. Still can`t rule out some spotty blowing dust during
the afternoon hours but lapse rates are a little marginal and
the overall strength of the wind really dont lead to me to
believe that much dust can get lofted. Continue to think that
any dust would be relegated to near recently plowed/harvested
fields resulting in spotty locales of visibility falling under 1
mile. Have noticed some increasing mid level moisture via the
15Z RAP13 which may support some sprinkles or light showers but
think that with the drier air at the surface if anything were to
occur it would be sprinkles at best.

Drier air is forecast to move in eroding any clouds that do manage
to sneak into the area from the north. A surface high which is
currently across Wyoming is forecast into the area along/just west
of the Kansas/Colorado line will lead to a period of light and
variable winds. This along with continued cold air advection will
set the stage for the first frost and freezes for the area. I did
expand the Freeze Warning to include Thomas county as there has been
a subtle eastward shift of the high and guidance has come in colder
as well. Some guidance does still have the high moving through
quicker allowing winds to become more southwesterly sooner, if that
does occur then more of a downsloping component would ensue keeper
temperatures a bit warmer than what is forecasted.

Sunday, surface troughing moves into the area allowing the area to
warm up albeit more than today despite being the wake of the
cold front with highs currently forecast in the in the low to
mid 70s. Breezy winds are forecast to continue with the trough
gusting 20-30 mph before slowly waning through the afternoon.
With the drier air remaining in place behind the front RH values
are forecast to fall into the mid teens to low 20s across
nearly the entire forecast area. Some localized critical fire
weather conditions may be possible west of the Colorado/Kansas
state line but with the winds forecast to decline through the
afternoon confidence is not there for 3 or more hours of
critical conditions to warrant any fire weather highlights at
this time. Through the evening another system across the
northern Plains intensifies as a cold front approaches the area
as winds shift to the north again. Winds do appear to remain
breezy through the night Sunday and into Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM
MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Starting the extended period, a surface trough develops
shifting winds to the southwest leading to a little bit of a
warmup into the mid to upper 70s. The main focus for the
extended period will be another strong cold front moving through
the area associated with yet another low across the northern
Plains. The wind field with this front at this time is quite a
bit stronger than the one currently forecast on Saturday as
forecast soundings such as the 12Z GFS has 55-60 knot winds at
the top of the mixing layer. After collaboration with
surrounding offices have nudged winds up in the forecast to
account for this. Blowing dust potential, assuming these winds
hold may also be a bit higher than what is currently forecast
for Saturday, due to stronger wind field and having multiple
days of further drying of the top soils. Will also need to keep
an eye on fire weather as well as elevated conditions are
currently forecast.

In wake of the front another surface high moves in which at this
time looks to be a bit broader. At this time another frost/freeze
will be on the table as well along with the potential for a more
widespread freeze as well. Will hold off on introducing frost
into the grids at this time to see how the Sunday morning freeze
plays out as the growing season may come to and end for some.

Midweek another wave moves across the area. Guidance has been
consistently suggesting this to be more compact. This looks to be
the area`s next potential for some rainfall but will depend on the
final placement of this system, if it drops to far south then the
rain chances decrease.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. Winds
have begun to increase across the area gusting 30-40 knots.
Can`t completely rule out a rogue gust around 45 knots at some
point this afternoon. Confidence is not there to continue to
keep BLDU in the TAF as current thinking if any occurs it will
be more localized. If this changes will issue an AMD. Winds are
forecast to continue through the afternoon before waning this
evening as a gradual shift to a more southerly direction occurs
around 12Z or so.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
     MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041.
     Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042.
CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Sunday for
     COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
     MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg